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On the Determination of the Public Debt
Open accessAbstract
A public debt theory is constructed in which the Ricardian invariance theorem is valid as a first-order proposition but where the dependence excess burden on the timing of taxation implies an optimal time path of debt issue. A central proposition is that deficits are varied in order to maintain expected constancy in tax rates. This behavior implies a positive effect on debt issue of temporary increases in government spending (as in wartime), a countercyclical response of debt to temporary income movements, and a one-to-one effect of expected inflation on nominal debt growth. Debt issue would be invariant with the outstanding debt-income ratio and, except for a mirror effect, with the level of government spending. Hypotheses are tested on U.S. data since World War I. Results are basically in accord with the theory. It also turns out that a small set of explanatory variables can account for the principal movements in interest-bearing federal debt since the 1920s.
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Citations
Cited by
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Grilli, V., Masciandaro, D., Tabellini, G., Malinvaud, E., & Pagano, M. (1991) · Economic Policy · doi:10.2307/1344630 · Cited by 1,585
A Positive Theory of Fiscal Deficits and Government Debt
Alesina, A., & Tabellini, G. (1990) · The Review of Economic Studies · doi:10.2307/2298021 · Cited by 1,568
Reinhart, C. M., & Rogoff, K. S. (2010) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.100.2.573 · Cited by 438
INFLATION AND CENTRAL BANK INDEPENDENCE: A META-REGRESSION ANALYSIS
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Stein, E. H., & Streb, J. M. (2004) · Journal of International Economics · doi:10.1016/s0022-1996(03)00040-0 · Cited by 81
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Cho, D., & Lee, K.-W. (2022) · Journal of International Money and Finance · doi:10.1016/j.jimonfin.2022.102665 · Cited by 40
Ahmad, A. H., & Aworinde, O. B. (2019) · The North American Journal of Economics and Finance · doi:10.1016/j.najef.2019.100999 · Cited by 25
Promise, U. K., Chukwudi, N. A., & Miriam, M. C. (2026) · International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science · doi:10.47772/ijriss.2026.100400264
Metadata
- Authors
- Barro, R. J.
- Venue
- Journal of Political Economy
- Publisher
- University of Chicago Press
- Published
- 1979-10
- Volume
- 87
- Issue
- 5, Part 1
- Pages
- 940-971
- ISSN
- 0022-3808 (ISSN-L)
- 1537-534X
- OpenAlex
- W2041175506
- Cited by
- 3,268
- References
- 0
- FWCI
- 24.44
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
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