The DOI matches its Crossref record; 2 of the 2 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Government Spending Multipliers in Good Times and in Bad: Evidence from US Historical Data
Abstract
We investigate whether US government spending multipliers are higher during periods of economic slack or when interest rates are near the zero lower bound. Using new quarterly historical US data covering multiple large wars and deep recessions, we estimate multipliers that are below unity irrespective of the amount of slack in the economy. These results are robust to two leading identification schemes, two different estimation methodologies, and many alternative specifications. In contrast, the results are more mixed for the zero lower bound state, with a few specifications implying multipliers as high as 1.5.
Overview
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Citations
Cites
Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation with Spatially Dependent Panel Data
Driscoll, J. C., & Kraay, A. C. (1998) · Review of Economics and Statistics · doi:10.1162/003465398557825 · Cited by 6,865
Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments
Staiger, D., & Stock, J. (1994) · doi:10.3386/t0151 · Cited by 5,302
Cited by
Stock Market Wealth and the Real Economy: A Local Labor Market Approach
Chodorow-Reich, G., Nenov, P. T., & Simsek, A. (2021) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.20200208 · Cited by 165
Metadata
- Authors
- Ramey, V. A., & Zubairy, S.
- Venue
- Journal of Political Economy
- Publisher
- University of Chicago Press
- Published
- 2018-04
- Volume
- 126
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 850-901
- ISSN
- 0022-3808 (ISSN-L)
- 1537-534X
- OpenAlex
- W1905678139
- Cited by
- 1,425
- References
- 2
- FWCI
- 237.06
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
How to cite
Cite CoChat for the checks on this page, and the paper for its own findings.
- This page
- CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Government Spending Multipliers in Good Times and in Bad: Evidence from US Historical Data. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1086/696277
- The paper
- Ramey, V. A., & Zubairy, S. (2018). Government Spending Multipliers in Good Times and in Bad: Evidence from US Historical Data. Journal of Political Economy. https://doi.org/10.1086/696277
Data sources
Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
