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Cited by 42Gender, Labor, and Family DynamicsFinancial Literacy, Pension, Retirement AnalysisFamily Dynamics and Relationships

Economic Uncertainty and Fertility

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Gozgor, Giray, Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin, Rangazas, Peter·2021·Journal of Human Capital
DOI 10.1086/715020
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Abstract

In this paper, we conduct an empirical study of how uncertainty alters fertility behavior. The precautionary motive for saving predicts that an increase in income uncertainty increases saving by reducing both consumption and fertility. We examine this prediction using a new measure of economic uncertainty, the World Uncertainty Index and focus on data from 126 countries for the period from 1996 to 2017. The empirical findings indicate that uncertainty decreases the fertility rate, as suggested by theory. This evidence is robust to different model specifications and econometric techniques as well as to the inclusion of various controls. The evidence also indicates that changes in uncertainty may be a factor explaining why fertility is pro-cyclical.

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Authors
Gozgor, G., Bilgin, M. H., & Rangazas, P.
Affiliations
Indiana University – Purdue University Indianapolis (US)
ORCID
Rangazas, Peter
Venue
Journal of Human Capital
Publisher
University of Chicago Press
Published
2021-09-01
Volume
15
Issue
3
Pages
373-399
ISSN
  • 1932-8575 (ISSN-L)
  • 1932-8664
DOI
10.1086/715020
OpenAlex
W2954626004
Cited by
42
References
0
Citations by year
2026: 9 · 2025: 14 · 2024: 8 · 2023: 5 · 2022: 4 · 2021: 1 · 2020: 1
FWCI
6.26
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • Journal of Human Capital (publishedVersion)
  • SSRN Electronic Journal (acceptedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
  • Econstor (Econstor) (submittedVersion)
  • IUScholarWorks (Indiana University) (submittedVersion)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Gender Studies › Gender, Labor, and Family Dynamics
  • Social Sciences › Business, Management and Accounting › Accounting › Financial Literacy, Pension, Retirement Analysis
  • Social Sciences › Demography › Family Dynamics and Relationships
Keywords
economic uncertainty, fertility, precautionary saving, income risk, World Uncertainty Index, fertility rate, consumption

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