Cited by 275Climate variability and modelsPrecipitation Measurement and AnalysisAtmospheric aerosols and clouds

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Current changes in tropical precipitation

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Allan, Richard P, Soden, Brian J, John, Viju O, Ingram, William, Good, Peter·2010·Environmental Research Letters

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Abstract

Current changes in tropical precipitation from satellite data and climate models are assessed. Wet and dry regions of the tropics are defined as the highest 30% and lowest 70% of monthly precipitation values. Observed tropical ocean trends in the wet regime (1.8%/decade) and the dry regions (−2.6%/decade) according to the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) over the period including Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) data (1988–2008), where GPCP is believed to be more reliable, are of smaller magnitude than when including the entire time series (1979–2008) and closer to model simulations than previous comparisons. Analysing changes in extreme precipitation using daily data within the wet regions, an increase in the frequency of the heaviest 6% of events with warming for the SSM/I observations and model ensemble mean is identified. The SSM/I data indicate an increased frequency of the heaviest events with warming, several times larger than the expected Clausius–Clapeyron scaling and at the upper limit of the substantial range in responses in the model simulations.

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Authors: Allan, R. P., Soden, B. J., John, V. O., Ingram, W., & Good, P.
Affiliations: University of Reading (GB)
University of Miami (US)
Met Office (GB)
ORCID: Allan, Richard P
Soden, Brian J
John, Viju O
Ingram, William
Good, Peter
Venue: Environmental Research Letters
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Published: 2010-04
Volume: 5
Issue: 2
Pages: 025205
ISSN: 1748-9326 (ISSN-L)
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/5/2/025205
OpenAlex: W2136381431
Cited by: 275
References: 59
Citations by year: 2026: 9 · 2025: 15 · 2024: 9 · 2023: 15 · 2022: 28 · 2021: 16 · 2020: 22 · 2019: 20 · 2018: 18 · 2017: 19 · 2016: 12 · 2015: 18 · 2014: 17 · 2013: 15 · 2012: 16
FWCI: 15.84
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: gold
doi.org
Licence: cc-by
Locations: Environmental Research Letters (publishedVersion, cc-by)
Funders: U.S. Department of Energy
Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK Government (GA01101)
Met Office (GA01101)
Office of Science
Natural Environment Research Council (earth010002, NE/D012287/1, GA 01101, ncas10009, jwcrp01002, NE/G015708/1, NE/C51785X/1)
National Centre for Earth Observation
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Precipitation Measurement and Analysis
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
Keywords: heavy rainfall, Clausius-Clapeyron scaling, GPCP, SSM/I, climate model simulation, precipitation frequency, tropical ocean warming

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