Changes in the Distribution of Rain Frequency and Intensity in Response to Global Warming*

Pendergrass, Angeline G.; Hartmann, Dennis L.

doi:10.1175/jcli-d-14-00183.1

Cited by 329Climate variability and modelsMeteorological Phenomena and SimulationsAtmospheric aerosols and clouds

Changes in the Distribution of Rain Frequency and Intensity in Response to Global Warming*

Open access

Pendergrass, Angeline G., Hartmann, Dennis L.·2014·Journal of Climate

DOI 10.1175/jcli-d-14-00183.1

Open this paper in CoChat — free account Open PDF

Abstract

Changes in the frequency and intensity of rainfall are an important potential impact of climate change. Two modes of change, a shift and an increase, are applied to simulations of global warming with models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The response to CO2 doubling in the multimodel mean of CMIP5 daily rainfall is characterized by an increase of 1% K−1 at all rain rates and a shift to higher rain rates of 3.3% K−1. In addition to these increase and shift modes of change, some models also show a substantial increase in rainfall at the highest rain rates called the extreme mode of response to warming. In some models, this extreme mode can be shown to be associated with increases in grid-scale condensation or gridpoint storms.

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1175/jcli-d-14-00183.1

Cites

31 of 31 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Claims the paper makes

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

Some models show disproportionate increases in precipitation extremes compared to other parts of the precipitation distribution, an extreme mode in the tropical response to climate change that relates to gridpoint storms.
“the disproportionate increases in precipitation extremes compared to other parts of the precipitation distribution that is found in some models—an “extreme mode” in the tropical response to climate change that relates to gridpoint storms [66, 67].”
From Precipitation Extremes Under Climate Change (2015) · cites this paper as [66]

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

The self-check needs the paper’s full text.

An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., & Meehl, G. A. (2012) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/bams-d-11-00094.1 · Cited by 14,052 · see citing works
Robust Responses of the Hydrological Cycle to Global Warming
Held, I. M., & Soden, B. J. (2006) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli3990.1 · Cited by 4,981 · see citing works
Changes in precipitation with climate change
Trenberth, K. E. (2010) · Climate Research · doi:10.3354/cr00953 · Cited by 3,835 · see citing works
Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle
Allen, M. R., & Ingram, W. J. (2002) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature01092 · Cited by 3,009 · see citing works
Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5
Dufresne, J., Foujols, M., Denvil, S., Caubel, A., Marti, O., Aumont, O., Balkanski, Y. J., Bekki, S., Bellenger, H., Benshila, R., et al. (2013) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1636-1 · Cited by 1,787 · see citing works
Climate and carbon cycle changes from 1850 to 2100 in MPI‐ESM simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5
Giorgetta, M. A., Jungclaus, J. H., Reick, C. H., Legutke, S., Bader, J., Böttinger, M., Brovkin, V. A., Crueger, T., Esch, M., Fieg, K., et al. (2013) · Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems · doi:10.1002/jame.20038 · Cited by 1,668 · see citing works
GFDL’s ESM2 Global Coupled Climate–Carbon Earth System Models. Part I: Physical Formulation and Baseline Simulation Characteristics
Dunne, J. P. P., John, J. G., Adcroft, A., Griffies, S. M., Hallberg, R., Shevliakova, E., Stouffer, R. J., Cooke, W. F., Dunne, K. A., Harrison, M., et al. (2012) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-11-00560.1 · Cited by 1,348 · see citing works
The physical basis for increases in precipitation extremes in simulations of 21st-century climate change
O’Gorman, P. A., & Schneider, T. (2009) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0907610106 · Cited by 1,159 · see citing works
Dynamic and thermodynamic changes in mean and extreme precipitation under changed climate
Emori, S., & Brown, S. J. (2005) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2005gl023272 · Cited by 663 · see citing works
Conceptual Framework for Changes of Extremes of the Hydrological Cycle With Climate Change
Trenberth, K. E. (1999) · Weather and Climate Extremes · doi:10.1007/978-94-015-9265-9_18 · Cited by 604 · see citing works
Testing the Clausius–Clapeyron constraint on changes in extreme precipitation under CO2 warming
Pall, P., Allen, M. R., & Stone, D. A. (2006) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-006-0180-2 · Cited by 577 · see citing works
Conceptual Framework for Changes of Extremes of the Hydrological Cycle with Climate Change
Trenberth, K. E. (1999) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1023/a:1005488920935 · Cited by 571 · see citing works
How Often Will It Rain?
Sun, Y., Solomon, S., Dai, A., & Portmann, R. W. (2007) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli4263.1 · Cited by 391 · see citing works
Sensitivity of tropical precipitation extremes to climate change
O’Gorman, P. A. (2012) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/ngeo1568 · Cited by 349 · see citing works
The Atmospheric Energy Constraint on Global-Mean Precipitation Change
Pendergrass, A. G., & Hartmann, D. L. (2013) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-13-00163.1 · Cited by 279 · see citing works
Self-citation
On Co2 climate sensitivity and model dependence of results
Mitchell, J. F. B., Wilson, C. A., & Cunnington, W. M. (1987) · Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society · doi:10.1002/qj.49711347517 · Cited by 279 · see citing works
Current changes in tropical precipitation
Allan, R. P., Soden, B. J., John, V. O., Ingram, W., & Good, P. (2010) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/5/2/025205 · Cited by 275 · see citing works
Controls of Global-Mean Precipitation Increases in Global Warming GCM Experiments
Stephens, G. L., & Ellis, T. D. (2008) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/2008jcli2144.1 · Cited by 253 · see citing works
Scaling of Precipitation Extremes over a Wide Range of Climates Simulated with an Idealized GCM
O’Gorman, P. A., & Schneider, T. (2009) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/2009jcli2701.1 · Cited by 217 · see citing works
A canonical response of precipitation characteristics to global warming from CMIP5 models
Lau, W. K. M., Wu, H., & Kim, K. ‐. (2013) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/grl.50420 · Cited by 202 · see citing works
Precipitation extreme changes exceeding moisture content increases in MIROC and IPCC climate models
Sugiyama, M., Shiogama, H., & Emori, S. (2009) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0903186107 · Cited by 201 · see citing works
On CO2 climate sensitivity and model dependence of results
MITCHELL, J., WILSON, C., & CUNNINGTON, W. (1987) · Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society · doi:10.1256/smsqj.47516 · Cited by 193 · see citing works
Mechanisms for Global Warming Impacts on Precipitation Frequency and Intensity
Chou, C., Chen, C., Tan, P., & Chen, K. T. (2011) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-11-00239.1 · Cited by 181 · see citing works
Multiscale Statistical Properties of a High-Resolution Precipitation Forecast
Harris, D., Foufoula‐Georgiou, E., Droegemeier, K. K., & Levit, J. J. (2001) · Journal of Hydrometeorology · doi:10.1175/1525-7541(2001)002 · Cited by 137 · see citing works
Improved simulation of extreme precipitation in a high‐resolution atmosphere model
Kopparla, P., Fischer, E. M., Hannay, C., & Knutti, R. (2013) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/2013gl057866 · Cited by 131 · see citing works
Two Modes of Change of the Distribution of Rain*
Pendergrass, A. G., & Hartmann, D. L. (2014) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-14-00182.1 · Cited by 106 · see citing works
Self-citation
Tropical Precipitation Extremes
Rossow, W. B., Mekonnen, A., Pearl, C., & Goncalves, W. (2013) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-11-00725.1 · Cited by 87 · see citing works
Dynamic Radiative–Convective Equilibria Using GCM Column Physics
Held, I. M., Zhao, M., & Wyman, B. L. (2007) · Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences · doi:10.1175/jas3825.11 · Cited by 81 · see citing works
Global‐mean precipitation and black carbon in AR4 simulations
Pendergrass, A. G., & Hartmann, D. L. (2011) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2011gl050067 · Cited by 61 · see citing works
Self-citation
Precipitation Partitioning, Tropical Clouds, and Intraseasonal Variability in GFDL AM2
Lin, Y., Zhao, M., Ming, Y., Golaz, J., Donner, L. J., Klein, S. A., Ramaswamy, V., & Xie, S. (2013) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-12-00442.1 · Cited by 41 · see citing works
The atmospheric energy constraint on precipitation change
Pendergrass, A. G. (2014) · ResearchWorks at the University of Washington (University of Washington) · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Self-citation

Flagged first, then by citations

Sorted by citations

Understanding the regional pattern of projected future changes in extreme precipitation
Pfahl, S., O’Gorman, P. A., & Fischer, E. M. (2017) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate3287 · Cited by 1,067 · see citing works
Frequency of extreme precipitation increases extensively with event rareness under global warming
Myhre, G., Alterskjær, K., Stjern, C. W., Hodnebrog, Ø., Marelle, L., Samset, B. H., Sillmann, J., Schaller, N., Fischer, E. M., Schulz, M., et al. (2019) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-019-52277-4 · Cited by 1,002 · see citing works
Precipitation Extremes Under Climate Change
O’Gorman, P. A. (2015) · Current Climate Change Reports · doi:10.1007/s40641-015-0009-3 · Cited by 831 · see citing works
“ulate the interannual variability in tropical precipitation extremes when compared to observations [2,3], and the disproportionate increases in precipitation extremes compared to other parts of the precipitation distribution that is found in some models – an “extreme mode” in the tropical response to climate change th…”
Background
Observed heavy precipitation increase confirms theory and early models
Fischer, E. M., & Knutti, R. (2016) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate3110 · Cited by 772 · see citing works
Increasing precipitation variability on daily-to-multiyear time scales in a warmer world
Zhang, W., Furtado, K., Wu, P., Zhou, T., Chadwick, R. S., Marzin, C., Rostron, J. W., & Sexton, D. M. H. (2021) · Science Advances · doi:10.1126/sciadv.abf8021 · Cited by 436 · see citing works
Evidence of shorter more extreme rainfalls and increased flood variability under climate change
Wasko, C., Nathan, R. J., Stein, L., & O’Shea, D. (2021) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126994 · Cited by 413 · see citing works
The response of precipitation characteristics to global warming from climate projections
Giorgi, F., Raffaele, F., & Coppola, E. (2019) · Earth System Dynamics · doi:10.5194/esd-10-73-2019 · Cited by 341 · see citing works
What precipitation is extreme?
Pendergrass, A. G. (2018) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aat1871 · Cited by 337 · see citing works
Self-citation
Constraining the increased frequency of global precipitation extremes under warming
Thackeray, C. W., Hall, A. D., Norris, J., & Chen, D. (2022) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-022-01329-1 · Cited by 312 · see citing works
The Uneven Nature of Daily Precipitation and Its Change
Pendergrass, A. G., & Knutti, R. (2018) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2018gl080298 · Cited by 300 · see citing works
Self-citation
Community climate simulations to assess avoided impacts in 1.5 and 2 °C futures
Sanderson, B. M., Xu, Y., Tebaldi, C., Wehner, M. F., O’Neill, B. C., Jahn, A., Pendergrass, A. G., Lehner, F., Strand, G., Lin, L., et al. (2017) · Earth System Dynamics · doi:10.5194/esd-8-827-2017 · Cited by 218 · see citing works
Self-citation
Seasonality, Intensity, and Duration of Rainfall Extremes Change in a Warmer Climate
Moustakis, Y., Papalexiou, S. M., Onof, C., & Paschalis, A. (2021) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2020ef001824 · Cited by 161 · see citing works
Twenty-first century hydroclimate: A continually changing baseline, with more frequent extremes
Stevenson, S. L., Coats, S., Touma, D., Cole, J. E., Lehner, F., Fasullo, J., & Otto‐Bliesner, B. L. (2022) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2108124119 · Cited by 158 · see citing works
An observational radiative constraint on hydrologic cycle intensification
DeAngelis, A. M., Qu, X., Zelinka, M. D., & Hall, A. D. (2015) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature15770 · Cited by 157 · see citing works
A new mechanism for warm-season precipitation response to global warming based on convection-permitting simulations
Dai, A., Rasmussen, R., Liu, C., Ikeda, K., & Prein, A. F. (2017) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3787-6 · Cited by 155 · see citing works
Atmospheric river landfall‐latitude changes in future climate simulations
Shields, C. A., & Kiehl, J. T. (2016) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/2016gl070470 · Cited by 138 · see citing works
Does extreme precipitation intensity depend on the emissions scenario?
Pendergrass, A. G., Lehner, F., Sanderson, B. M., & Xu, Y. (2015) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/2015gl065854 · Cited by 138 · see citing works
Self-citation
The Convective‐To‐Total Precipitation Ratio and the “Drizzling” Bias in Climate Models
Chen, D., Dai, A., & Hall, A. D. (2021) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2020jd034198 · Cited by 130 · see citing works
A Comparison of Moderate and Extreme ERA‐5 Daily Precipitation With Two Observational Data Sets
Rivoire, P., Martius, O., & Naveau, P. (2021) · Earth and Space Science · doi:10.1029/2020ea001633 · Cited by 130 · see citing works
Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs
Pelletier, J. D., Murray, A. B., Pierce, J. L., Bierman, P. R., Breshears, D. D., Crosby, B. T., Ellis, M. A., Foufoula‐Georgiou, E., Heimsath, A. M., Houser, C., et al. (2015) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1002/2014ef000290 · Cited by 123 · see citing works
Thermodynamic versus Dynamic Controls on Extreme Precipitation in a Warming Climate from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble
Norris, J., Chen, G., & Neelin, J. D. (2018) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-18-0302.1 · Cited by 124 · see citing works
Extreme precipitation events
Gimeno, L., Sorí, R., Vázquez, M., Stojanovic, M., Algarra, I., Eiras‐Barca, J., Gimeno‐Sotelo, L., & Nieto, R. (2022) · Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Water · doi:10.1002/wat2.1611 · Cited by 124 · see citing works
The Climatic Analysis of Summer Monsoon Extreme Precipitation Events over West Africa in CMIP6 Simulations
Klutse, N. A. B., Quagraine, K. A., Nkrumah, F., Quagraine, K. T., Berkoh-Oforiwaa, R., Dzrobi, J. F., & Sylla, M. B. (2021) · Earth Systems and Environment · doi:10.1007/s41748-021-00203-y · Cited by 111 · see citing works
Two Modes of Change of the Distribution of Rain*
Pendergrass, A. G., & Hartmann, D. L. (2014) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-14-00182.1 · Cited by 106 · see citing works
Self-citation
A Decade of Water Storage Changes Across the Contiguous United States From GPS and Satellite Gravity
Adusumilli, S., Borsa, A. A., Fish, M. A., McMillan, H., & Silverii, F. (2019) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2019gl085370 · Cited by 102 · see citing works
Plant Physiological Responses to Rising CO2 Modify Simulated Daily Runoff Intensity With Implications for Global‐Scale Flood Risk Assessment
Kooperman, G. J., Fowler, M. D., Hoffman, F. M., Koven, C. D., Lindsay, K., Pritchard, M. S., Swann, A. L. S., & Randerson, J. T. (2018) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2018gl079901 · Cited by 102 · see citing works
Short-term effects of biochar and salinity on soil greenhouse gas emissions from a semi-arid Australian soil after re-wetting
Maucieri, C., Zhang, Y., McDaniel, M. D., Borin, M., & Adams, M. A. (2017) · Geoderma · doi:10.1016/j.geoderma.2017.07.028 · Cited by 101 · see citing works
Regionally refined test bed in E3SM atmosphere model version 1 (EAMv1) and applications for high-resolution modeling
Tang, Q., Klein, S. A., Xie, S., Lin, W., Golaz, J., Roesler, E. L., Taylor, M. A., Rasch, P. J., Bader, D. C., Berg, L. K., et al. (2019) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-12-2679-2019 · Cited by 95 · see citing works
Assessment of Water Cycle Intensification Over Land using a Multisource Global Gridded Precipitation DataSet
Markonis, Y., Papalexiou, S. M., Martínková, M., & Hanel, M. (2019) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2019jd030855 · Cited by 88 · see citing works
Sensitivity of precipitation extremes to radiative forcing of greenhouse gases and aerosols
Lin, L., Wang, Z., Xu, Y., & Fu, Q. (2016) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/2016gl070869 · Cited by 86 · see citing works
Robust effects of cloud superparameterization on simulated daily rainfall intensity statistics across multiple versions of the C ommunity E arth S ystem M odel
Kooperman, G. J., Pritchard, M. S., Burt, M., Branson, M., & Randall, D. A. (2016) · Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems · doi:10.1002/2015ms000574 · Cited by 79 · see citing works
Seasonal representation of extreme precipitation indices over the United States in CMIP6 present-day simulations
Akinsanola, A. A., Kooperman, G. J., Pendergrass, A. G., Hannah, W. M., & Reed, K. A. (2020) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab92c1 · Cited by 83 · see citing works
Self-citation
Assessing the costs of historical inaction on climate change
Sanderson, B. M., & O’Neill, B. C. (2020) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-020-66275-4 · Cited by 83 · see citing works
Precipitation Characteristics in the Community Atmosphere Model and Their Dependence on Model Physics and Resolution
Chen, D., & Dai, A. (2019) · Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems · doi:10.1029/2018ms001536 · Cited by 81 · see citing works
The link between extreme precipitation and convective organization in a warming climate: Global radiative‐convective equilibrium simulations
Pendergrass, A. G., Reed, K. A., & Medeiros, B. (2016) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/2016gl071285 · Cited by 80 · see citing works
Self-citation
Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale
Neelin, J. D., Sahany, S., Stechmann, S. N., & Bernstein, D. N. (2017) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1615333114 · Cited by 78 · see citing works
Spatiotemporal variability of the precipitation concentration and diversity in Central Asia
Yang, T., Li, Q., Chen, X., Maeyer, P. D., Yan, X. D., Liu, Y., Zhao, T., & Li, L. (2020) · Atmospheric Research · doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.104954 · Cited by 78 · see citing works
Concentration of daily precipitation in the contiguous United States
Royé, D., & Vide, J. M. (2017) · Atmospheric Research · doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2017.06.011 · Cited by 75 · see citing works
Observed Relationships between Cloud Vertical Structure and Convective Aggregation over Tropical Ocean
Stein, T. H. M., Holloway, C. E., Tobin, I., & Bony, S. (2016) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-16-0125.1 · Cited by 74 · see citing works
Changing character of rainfall in eastern China, 1951–2007
Day, J. A., FUNG, I. Y., & Liu, W. (2018) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1715386115 · Cited by 74 · see citing works
Contributions of Dynamic and Thermodynamic Scaling in Subdaily Precipitation Extremes in India
Ali, H., & Mishra, V. K. (2018) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/2018gl077065 · Cited by 69 · see citing works
Simulation of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period using HadGEM3: experimental design and results from model–model and model–data comparison
Williams, C. J. R., Sellar, A., Ren, X., Haywood, A. M., Hopcroft, P. O., Hunter, S. J., Roberts, W. H. G., Smith, R. S., Stone, E. J., Tindall, J. C., et al. (2021) · Climate of the past · doi:10.5194/cp-17-2139-2021 · Cited by 67 · see citing works
Growing aridity poses threats to global land surface
Sardans, J., Miralles, A., Tariq, A., Zeng, F., Wang, R., & Peñuelas, J. (2024) · Communications Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43247-024-01935-1 · Cited by 68 · see citing works
Characteristics of Temperature Depressions Associated with Snow Cover across the Northeast United States
Leathers, D. J., Ellis, A. W., & Robinson, D. A. (1995) · Journal of applied meteorology · doi:10.1175/1520-0450-34.2.381 · Cited by 67 · see citing works
Daily extreme precipitation and trends over China
Sun, J., & Zhang, F. (2017) · Science China Earth Sciences · doi:10.1007/s11430-016-9117-8 · Cited by 66 · see citing works
Future Atmospheric Rivers and Impacts on Precipitation: Overview of the ARTMIP Tier 2 High‐Resolution Global Warming Experiment
Shields, C. A., Payne, A. E., Shearer, E. J., Wehner, M. F., O'Brien, T. A., Rutz, J. J., Leung, L.-Y. R., Ralph, F. M., Collow, A. B. M., Ullrich, P. A., et al. (2023) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2022gl102091 · Cited by 64 · see citing works
An Improved Covariate for Projecting Future Rainfall Extremes?
Roderick, T. P., Wasko, C., & Sharma, A. (2020) · Water Resources Research · doi:10.1029/2019wr026924 · Cited by 64 · see citing works
A game theoretical low impact development optimization model for urban storm water management
Latifi, M., Rakhshandehroo, G., Nikoo, M. R., & Sadegh, M. (2019) · Journal of Cleaner Production · doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.118323 · Cited by 63 · see citing works
Assessing the Robustness of Future Extreme Precipitation Intensification in the CMIP5 Ensemble
Bador, M., Donat, M. G., Geoffroy, O., & Alexander, L. V. (2018) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-17-0683.1 · Cited by 62 · see citing works
The Rain Is Askew: Two Idealized Models Relating Vertical Velocity and Precipitation Distributions in a Warming World
Pendergrass, A. G., & Gerber, E. P. (2016) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-16-0097.1 · Cited by 62 · see citing works
Self-citation
Nonlinear Response of Extreme Precipitation to Warming in CESM1
Pendergrass, A. G., Coleman, D., Deser, C., Lehner, F., Rosenbloom, N. A., & Simpson, I. R. (2019) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2019gl084826 · Cited by 61 · see citing works
Self-citation
Trends of extreme US weather events in the changing climate
Shenoy, S., Gorinevsky, D. M., Trenberth, K. E., & Chu, S. (2022) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2207536119 · Cited by 60 · see citing works
The Changing Seasonality of Extreme Daily Precipitation
Marelle, L., Myhre, G., Hodnebrog, Ø., Sillmann, J., & Samset, B. H. (2018) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2018gl079567 · Cited by 61 · see citing works
On the Connection Between Global Hydrologic Sensitivity and Regional Wet Extremes
Thackeray, C. W., DeAngelis, A. M., Hall, A. D., Swain, D. L., & Qu, X. (2018) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2018gl079698 · Cited by 60 · see citing works
Diverging projections for flood and rainfall frequency curves
Wasko, C., Guo, D., Ho, M., Nathan, R. J., & Vogel, E. (2023) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129403 · Cited by 57 · see citing works
Non-stationarity in extreme rainfalls across Australia
Jayaweera, L., Wasko, C., Nathan, R. J., & Johnson, F. M. (2023) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129872 · Cited by 57 · see citing works
ASoP (v1.0): a set of methods for analyzing scales of precipitation in general circulation models
Klingaman, N. P., Martin, G., & Moise, A. F. (2017) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-10-57-2017 · Cited by 57 · see citing works
Analyzing Internal Variability and Forced Response of Subdaily and Daily Extreme Precipitation Over Europe
Wood, R. R., & Ludwig, R. (2020) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2020gl089300 · Cited by 59 · see citing works
A systematic review of climate change science relevant to Australian design flood estimation
Wasko, C., Westra, S., Nathan, R. J., Pepler, A. S., Raupach, T., Dowdy, A. J., Johnson, F. M., Ho, M., McInnes, K. L., Jakob, D., et al. (2024) · Hydrology and earth system sciences · doi:10.5194/hess-28-1251-2024 · Cited by 56 · see citing works
Climate shifts within major agricultural seasons for +1.5 and +2.0 °C worlds: HAPPI projections and AgMIP modeling scenarios
Ruane, A. C., Phillips, M., & Rosenzweig, C. E. (2018) · Agricultural and Forest Meteorology · doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2018.05.013 · Cited by 56 · see citing works
Observed Changes in Daily Precipitation Intensity in the United States
Harp, R. D., & Horton, D. E. (2022) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2022gl099955 · Cited by 59 · see citing works
The atmospheric hydrologic cycle in the ACME v0.3 model
Terai, C. R., Caldwell, P., Klein, S. A., Tang, Q., & Branstetter, M. L. (2017) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3803-x · Cited by 57 · see citing works
Rainfall From Resolved Rather Than Parameterized Processes Better Represents the Present‐Day and Climate Change Response of Moderate Rates in the Community Atmosphere Model
Kooperman, G. J., Pritchard, M. S., O'Brien, T. A., & Timmermans, B. W. (2018) · Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems · doi:10.1002/2017ms001188 · Cited by 55 · see citing works
Effects of extreme ambient temperature in European seabass, Dicentrarchus labrax acclimated at different salinities: Growth performance, metabolic and molecular stress responses
Islam, M. J., Kunzmann, A., Thiele, R., & Slater, M. J. (2020) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139371 · Cited by 56 · see citing works
Light and low-intensity rainfalls: A review of their classification, occurrence, and importance in landsurface, ecological and environmental processes
Dunkerley, D. L. (2021) · Earth-Science Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2021.103529 · Cited by 54 · see citing works
A Review of Atmospheric Aerosol Impacts on Regional Extreme Weather and Climate Events
Akinyoola, J. A., Oluleye, A., & Gbode, I. E. (2024) · Aerosol Science and Engineering · doi:10.1007/s41810-024-00223-x · Cited by 59 · see citing works
Dependence of estimated precipitation frequency and intensity on data resolution
Chen, D., & Dai, A. (2017) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3830-7 · Cited by 52 · see citing works
Regionally high risk increase for precipitation extreme events under global warming
Martinez‐Villalobos, C., & Neelin, J. D. (2023) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-023-32372-3 · Cited by 49 · see citing works
Future Warming and Intensification of Precipitation Extremes: A “Double Whammy” Leading to Increasing Flood Risk in California
Huang, X., Stevenson, S. L., & Hall, A. D. (2020) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2020gl088679 · Cited by 48 · see citing works
When the rainforest dries: Drought effects on a montane tropical stream ecosystem in Puerto Rico
Gutiérrez‐Fonseca, P. E., Ramírez, A., Pringle, C. M., Torres, P. J., McDowell, W. H., Covich, A. P., Crowl, T. A., & Pérez‐Reyes, O. (2020) · Freshwater Science · doi:10.1086/708808 · Cited by 47 · see citing works
Impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C on precipitation patterns in China by regional climate model (COSMO-CLM)
Sun, H., Wang, A., Zhai, J., Huang, J., Wang, Y., Wen, S., Zeng, X., & Su, B. (2017) · Atmospheric Research · doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2017.10.024 · Cited by 46 · see citing works
Changing Degree of Convective Organization as a Mechanism for Dynamic Changes in Extreme Precipitation
Pendergrass, A. G. (2020) · Current Climate Change Reports · doi:10.1007/s40641-020-00157-9 · Cited by 46 · see citing works
Self-citation
Heterogeneous response of global precipitation concentration to global warming
Dong, Q., Wang, W., Kunkel, K. E., Shao, Q., Xing, W., & Wei, J. (2020) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.6851 · Cited by 40 · see citing works
Why do the Global Warming Responses of Land‐Surface Models and Climatic Dryness Metrics Disagree?
Scheff, J., Coats, S., & Laguë, M. M. (2022) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2022ef002814 · Cited by 43 · see citing works
Time variability and uncertainty in the fraction of young water in a small headwater catchment
Stockinger, M., Bogena, H., Lücke, A., Stumpp, C., & Vereecken, H. (2019) · Hydrology and earth system sciences · doi:10.5194/hess-23-4333-2019 · Cited by 43 · see citing works
Increasing precipitation whiplash in climate change hotspots
Chen, D., Norris, J., Thackeray, C. W., & Hall, A. D. (2022) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aca3b9 · Cited by 42 · see citing works
Atmospheric rivers in high-resolution simulations of the Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM)
Shields, C. A., Kiehl, J. T., Rush, W., Rothstein, M., & Snyder, M. A. (2021) · Palaeogeography Palaeoclimatology Palaeoecology · doi:10.1016/j.palaeo.2021.110293 · Cited by 42 · see citing works
Environmental Controls on Tropical Mesoscale Convective System Precipitation Intensity
Schiro, K. A., Sullivan, S. C., Kuo, Y., Su, H., Gentine, P., Elsaesser, G. S., Jiang, J. H., & Neelin, J. D. (2020) · Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences · doi:10.1175/jas-d-20-0111.1 · Cited by 41 · see citing works
The Spatiotemporal Evolution of Rainfall Extremes in a Changing Climate: A CONUS‐Wide Assessment Based on Multifractal Scaling Arguments
Emmanouil, S., Langousis, A., Nikolopoulos, E. I., & Anagnostou, E. N. (2022) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2021ef002539 · Cited by 38 · see citing works
Impacts of cloud superparameterization on projected daily rainfall intensity climate changes in multiple versions of the Community Earth System Model
Kooperman, G. J., Pritchard, M. S., Burt, M., Branson, M., & Randall, D. A. (2016) · Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems · doi:10.1002/2016ms000715 · Cited by 35 · see citing works
Modelling non-stationarity in extreme rainfall using large-scale climate drivers
Jayaweera, L., Wasko, C., & Nathan, R. J. (2024) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131309 · Cited by 36 · see citing works
Characterizing the Flash Flooding Risks from 2011 to 2016 over China
Ma, M., He, B., Wan, J., Jia, P., Guo, X., Gao, L., Maguire, L. W., & Hong, Y. E. (2018) · Water · doi:10.3390/w10060704 · Cited by 36 · see citing works
What rainfall rates are most important to wet removal of different aerosol types?
Wang, Y., Xia, W., & Zhang, G. J. (2021) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-21-16797-2021 · Cited by 36 · see citing works
Projecting Changes in Societally Impactful Northeastern U.S. Snowstorms
Zarzycki, C. M. (2018) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2018gl079820 · Cited by 35 · see citing works
Effects of Bias-Correcting Climate Model Data on the Projection of Future Changes in High Flows
Wörner, V., Kreye, P., & Meon, G. (2019) · Hydrology · doi:10.3390/hydrology6020046 · Cited by 34 · see citing works
Changes in Extreme Precipitation Accumulations during the Warm Season over Continental China
Chang, M., Liu, B., Martinez‐Villalobos, C., Ren, G., Li, S., & Zhou, T. (2020) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-20-0616.1 · Cited by 34 · see citing works
Climate change impact on flood hazard over Italy
Ojeda, M. G., Sante, F. D., Coppola, E., Fantini, A., Nogherotto, R., Raffaele, F., & Giorgi, F. (2022) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128628 · Cited by 37 · see citing works
Summer and winter precipitation in East Asia scale with global warming at different rates
Liang, W., & Zhang, M. (2021) · Communications Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43247-021-00219-2 · Cited by 33 · see citing works
Climatological Characteristics of Typical Daily Precipitation
Pendergrass, A. G., & Deser, C. (2017) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-16-0684.1 · Cited by 34 · see citing works
Self-citation
Simultaneous characterization of mesoscale and convective‐scale tropical rainfall extremes and their dynamical and thermodynamic modes of change
Fildier, B., Parishani, H., & Collins, W. D. (2017) · Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems · doi:10.1002/2017ms001033 · Cited by 31 · see citing works
Inter-comparison of spatiotemporal features of precipitation extremes within six daily precipitation products
Chen, S., Liu, B., Tan, X., & Wu, Y. (2019) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-019-05045-z · Cited by 30 · see citing works
How Strongly Are Mean and Extreme Precipitation Coupled?
Nishant, N., & Sherwood, S. C. (2021) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2020gl092075 · Cited by 30 · see citing works
Natural disasters linked to climate change
Dey, R., & Lewis, S. C. (2021) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-822373-4.00004-5 · Cited by 29 · see citing works
Exploring the Future of Rainfall Extremes Over CONUS: The Effects of High Emission Climate Change Trajectories on the Intensity and Frequency of Rare Precipitation Events
Emmanouil, S., Langousis, A., Nikolopoulos, E. I., & Anagnostou, E. N. (2023) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2022ef003039 · Cited by 29 · see citing works
Bracing for impact: how shifting precipitation extremes may influence physical climate risks in an uncertain future
Rahat, S. H., Saki, S., Khaira, U., Biswas, N. K., Dollan, I. J., Wasti, A., Miura, Y., Bhuiyan, M. A. E., & Ray, P. A. (2024) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-024-65618-9 · Cited by 29 · see citing works
Investigating the impact of cloud-radiative feedbacks on tropical precipitation extremes
Medeiros, B., Clement, A., Benedict, J. J., & Zhang, B. (2021) · npj Climate and Atmospheric Science · doi:10.1038/s41612-021-00174-x · Cited by 29 · see citing works
Evaluation of the Tail of the Probability Distribution of Daily and Subdaily Precipitation in CMIP6 Models
Norris, J., Hall, A. D., Neelin, J. D., Thackeray, C. W., & Chen, D. (2021) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-20-0182.1 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
Changes in Frequency of Large Precipitation Accumulations over Land in a Warming Climate from the CESM Large Ensemble: The Roles of Moisture, Circulation, and Duration
Norris, J., Chen, G., & Neelin, J. D. (2019) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-18-0600.1 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
The spatial and seasonal variability of nutrient status in the seaward rivers of China shaped by the human activities
Wu, W., Zhai, F., Liu, Z., Liu, C., Gu, Y., & Li, P. (2023) · Ecological Indicators · doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2023.111223 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
The future intensification of hydrological extremes and whiplashes in the contiguous United States increase community vulnerability
Maharjan, S., Li, W., Bolten, J., & El-Askary, H. M. (2025) · Communications Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43247-025-02672-9 · Cited by 30 · see citing works

Two Modes of Change of the Distribution of Rain*
Pendergrass, A. G., & Hartmann, D. L. (2014) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-14-00182.1 · Cited by 106 · see citing works
Self-citation
A Canonical Response in Rainfall Characteristics to Global Warming: Projections by IPCC CMIP5 Models
Lau, W. K. M., Wu, H., & Kim, K. M. (2012) · NASA Technical Reports Server (NASA)
A Robust Response of Precipitation to Global Warming from CMIP5 Models
Lau, K. M., Wu, H., & Kim, K. M. (2012) · NASA STI Repository (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Global Warming Induced Changes in Rainfall Characteristics in IPCC AR5 Models
Lau, W. K. M., Wu, J., & Kim, K. (2012) · NASA Technical Reports Server (NASA)
Simulated changes in daily rainfall intensity due to the enhanced greenhouse effect: implications for extreme rainfall events
Gordon, H. B., Whetton, P. H., Pittock, A. B., Fowler, A. M., & Haylock, M. R. (1992) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/bf00209165 · Cited by 173 · see citing works

Authors: Pendergrass, A. G., & Hartmann, D. L.
Affiliations: University of Washington (US)
Corresponding author: Pendergrass, Angeline G.
ORCID: Pendergrass, Angeline G.
Hartmann, Dennis L.
Venue: Journal of Climate
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Published: 2014-11-04
Volume: 27
Issue: 22
Pages: 8372-8383
ISSN: 0894-8755 (ISSN-L)
1520-0442
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-14-00183.1
OpenAlex: W2108644185
Cited by: 329
References: 31
Citations by year: 2026: 23 · 2025: 35 · 2024: 36 · 2023: 44 · 2022: 39 · 2021: 50 · 2020: 25 · 2019: 21 · 2018: 17 · 2017: 20 · 2016: 11 · 2015: 6 · 2014: 1
FWCI: 10.40
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: bronze
doi.org
Locations: Journal of Climate (publishedVersion)
Funders: National Science Foundation (0960497)
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
Keywords: rainfall frequency, rainfall intensity, global warming, climate change impacts, CMIP5, CO2 doubling, heavy rainfall, daily precipitation

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review

Changes in the Distribution of Rain Frequency and Intensity in Response to Global Warming*

Abstract

Integrity signals

Claims the paper makes

Claims other papers make about this one

Self-check

Cites

Cited by

Related

Record

About these checks