The DOI matches its Crossref record; 51 of the 51 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Futures of global urban expansion: uncertainties and implications for biodiversity conservation
Open accessAbstract
Urbanization will place significant pressures on biodiversity across the world. However, there are large uncertainties in the amount and location of future urbanization, particularly urban land expansion. Here, we present a global analysis of urban extent circa 2000 and probabilistic forecasts of urban expansion for 2030 near protected areas and in biodiversity hotspots. We estimate that the amount of urban land within 50 km of all protected area boundaries will increase from 450 000 km 2 circa 2000 to 1440 000 ± 65 000 km 2 in 2030. Our analysis shows that protected areas around the world will experience significant increases in urban land within 50 km of their boundaries. China will experience the largest increase in urban land near protected areas with 304 000 ± 33 000 km 2 of new urban land to be developed within 50 km of protected area boundaries. The largest urban expansion in biodiversity hotspots, over 100 000 ± 25 000 km 2 , is forecasted to occur in South America. Uncertainties in the forecasts of the amount and location of urban land expansion reflect uncertainties in their underlying drivers including urban population and economic growth. The forecasts point to the need to reconcile urban development and biodiversity conservation strategies.
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Cites
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Global forecasts of urban expansion to 2030 and direct impacts on biodiversity and carbon pools
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Self-citationUrbanization as a major cause of biotic homogenization
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A Meta-Analysis of Global Urban Land Expansion
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Self-citationThe Matrix Matters: Effective Isolation in Fragmented Landscapes
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The dimensions of global urban expansion: Estimates and projections for all countries, 2000–2050
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Future global urban water scarcity and potential solutions
He, C., Liu, Z., Wu, J., Pan, X., Fang, Z., Li, J., & Bryan, B. A. (2021) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-021-25026-3 · Cited by 1,860
Beninde, J., Veith, M., & Hochkirch, A. (2015) · Ecology Letters · doi:10.1111/ele.12427 · Cited by 1,249
Global projections of future urban land expansion under shared socioeconomic pathways
Chen, G., Li, X., Liu, X., Chen, Y., Liang, X., Leng, J., Xu, X., Liao, W., Qiu, Y., Wu, Q., et al. (2020) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-020-14386-x · Cited by 873
Biodiversity impacts and conservation implications of urban land expansion projected to 2050
Simkin, R. D., Seto, K. C., McDonald, R. I., & Jetz, W. (2022) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2117297119 · Cited by 826
Self-citationGlobal urbanization projections for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
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Metadata
- Authors
- Güneralp, B., & Seto, K. C.
- Venue
- Environmental Research Letters
- Publisher
- IOP Publishing
- Published
- 2013-02-19
- Volume
- 8
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 014025
- ISSN
- 1748-9326 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W1993158459
- Cited by
- 354
- References
- 51
- FWCI
- 12.59
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
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- Güneralp, B., & Seto, K. C. (2013). Futures of global urban expansion: uncertainties and implications for biodiversity conservation. Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014025
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Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
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