The DOI matches its Crossref record; 55 of the 58 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
A unifying view of climate change in the Sahel linking intra-seasonal, interannual and longer time scales
Open accessAbstract
We propose a re-interpretation of the oceanic influence on the climate of the African Sahel that is consistent across observations, 20th century simulations and 21st century projections, and that resolves the uncertainty in projections of precipitation change in this region: continued warming of the global tropical oceans increases the threshold for convection, potentially drying tropical land, but this 'upped ante' can be met if sufficient moisture is supplied in monsoon flow. In this framework, the reversal to warming of the subtropical North Atlantic, which is now out-pacing warming of the global tropical oceans, provides that moisture, and explains the partial recovery in precipitation since persistent drought in the 1970s and 1980s. We find this recovery to result from increases in daily rainfall intensity, rather than in frequency, most evidently so in Senegal, the westernmost among the three Sahelian countries analyzed. Continuation of these observed trends is consistent with projections for an overall wetter Sahel, but more variable precipitation on all time scales, from intra-seasonal to multi-decadal.
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“Smallholder rainfed agriculture and herding are becoming increasingly difficult due to unpredictable availability of water and in some locations expansion of the Sahara Desert [23, 61, 62].”
From Climate Change, Migration, and Civil Strife. (2020) · cites this paper as [23]
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“The 2013 IPCC report forecasts that, by the late twenty-first century, intense heat and dryness will affect countries extending across North Africa into Egypt and Sudan and northeast to Saudi Arabia, the Levant including Syria, Iraq, and Iran [20], to parts of India and China in Asia, and across the Southern United States and Mexico [21–23].”
From Climate Change, Migration, and Civil Strife. (2020) · cites this paper as [23]
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Cites
Climate change 2007: the physical science basis
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Research works printed but not linked: 7
- Botoni E, 2009, La transformation silencieuse de l’environnement et des systèmes de production au Sahel: impacts des investissements publics et privés dans la gestion des ressources naturelles
- 2007, Human Development Report 2007/2008. Fighting Climate Change: Human Solidarity in a Divided World
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Cited by
Sorted by citations
A review of droughts on the African continent: a geospatial and long-term perspective
Masih, I., Maskey, S., Mussá, F. E. F., & Trambauer, P. (2014) · Hydrology and earth system sciences · doi:10.5194/hess-18-3635-2014 · Cited by 760
Sultan, B., & Gaetani, M. (2016) · Frontiers in Plant Science · doi:10.3389/fpls.2016.01262 · Cited by 627
Towards predictive understanding of regional climate change
Xie, S., Deser, C., Vecchi, G. A., Collins, M. D., Delworth, T. L., Hall, A. D., Hawkins, E., Johnson, N. C., Cassou, C., Giannini, A., et al. (2015) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2689 · Cited by 370
Self-citationRainfall trends in the African Sahel: Characteristics, processes, and causes
Biasutti, M. (2019) · Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change · doi:10.1002/wcc.591 · Cited by 375
Yeager, S. G., Danabasoglu, G., Rosenbloom, N. A., Strand, G., Bates, S. C., Meehl, G. A., Karspeck, A. R., Lindsay, K., Long, M. C., Teng, H., et al. (2018) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/bams-d-17-0098.1 · Cited by 275
Metadata
- Authors
- Giannini, A., Salack, S., Lodoun, T., Ali, A., Gaye, A. T., & Ndiaye, O.
- Affiliations
- Columbia University (US)
- Centre d'Etude Regional pour l'Amelioration de l'Adaptation a la Secheresse (SN)
- Institut de l'Environnement et Recherches Agricoles (BF)
- Agrhymet Regional Centre (NE)
- Cheikh Anta Diop University (SN)
- Agence Nationale de l'Aviation Civile et de la Météorologie (SN)
- Venue
- Environmental Research Letters
- Publisher
- IOP Publishing
- Published
- 2013-04-18
- Volume
- 8
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 024010
- ISSN
- 1748-9326 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2151415557
- Cited by
- 178
- References
- 58
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 10 · 2024: 11 · 2023: 8 · 2022: 13 · 2021: 7 · 2020: 31 · 2019: 16 · 2018: 17 · 2017: 16 · 2016: 17 · 2015: 16 · 2014: 11 · 2013: 1
- FWCI
- 11.39
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Environmental Research Letters (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
- Greater South Information System
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (0955372)
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NA08OAR4320754)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Keywords
- Sahel climate, rainfall variability, ocean-atmosphere interaction, North Atlantic warming, tropical ocean warming, rainfall intensity, precipitation projections, intraseasonal variability, interannual variability, multidecadal variability, Senegal
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