Oceanic forcing of Sahel rainfall on interannual to interdecadal time scales.
Abstract
We present evidence, based on an ensemble of integrations with NSIPP1 (version 1 of the atmospheric general circulation model developed at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in the framework of the Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project) forced only by the observed record of sea surface temperature from 1930 to 2000, to suggest that variability of rainfall in the Sahel results from the response of the African summer monsoon to oceanic forcing, amplified by land-atmosphere interaction. The recent drying trend in the semiarid Sahel is attributed to warmer-than-average low-latitude waters around Africa, which, by favoring the establishment of deep convection over the ocean, weaken the continental convergence associated with the monsoon and engender widespread drought from Senegal to Ethiopia.
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The observed drought tendency following the 1960s has been well reproduced with models only forced by observed SST.
“Indeed, this observed drought tendency following the 1960s has been well reproduced with models only forced by observed SST (Giannini et al. 2003;Paeth and Hense 2004;Lu and Delworth 2005;Tippett 2006; Tippett and Giannini 2006).”
From Tropical Atlantic variability modes (1979-2002). Part I: Time-evolving SST modes related to West African rainfall (2008) · cites this paper as Giannini et al. 2003
Some discriminant analyses have shown perfect uncoupled rainfall variability modes between the Sahel and the coast of the Gulf of Guinea, associated with different global SST anomalies.
“However, some discriminant analyses have shown perfect uncoupled rainfall variability modes between the Sahel and the coast of the Gulf of Guinea (GG), associated with different global SST anomalies (Ward 1998;Giannini et al. 2003).”
From Tropical Atlantic variability modes (1979-2002). Part I: Time-evolving SST modes related to West African rainfall (2008) · cites this paper as Giannini et al. 2003
Without standardization of rainfall anomalies, the rainfall anomalies of the coast of the Gulf of Guinea have higher amplitudes and appear as the leading mode.
“Without the standardization of the rainfall anomalies (as done in Giannini et al. 2003), the rainfall anomalies of the coast of the GG have higher amplitudes and appear as the leading mode.”
From Tropical Atlantic variability modes (1979-2002). Part I: Time-evolving SST modes related to West African rainfall (2008) · cites this paper as Giannini et al. 2003
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- Authors
- Giannini, A., Saravanan, R., & Chang, P.
- Affiliations
- NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (US)
- Venue
- Science
- Published
- 2003-11-07
- Volume
- 302
- Issue
- 5647
- Pages
- 1027-1030
- ISSN
- 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
- 1095-9203
- OpenAlex
- W2144927855
- Cited by
- 1,058
- References
- 34
- Citations by year
- 2026: 23 · 2025: 35 · 2024: 30 · 2023: 35 · 2022: 50 · 2021: 41 · 2020: 62 · 2019: 44 · 2018: 49 · 2017: 49 · 2016: 59 · 2015: 61 · 2014: 50 · 2013: 47 · 2012: 45
- FWCI
- 47.52
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Science (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
- Keywords
- ocean-atmosphere interaction, sea surface temperature forcing, land-atmosphere interactions, Sahel drought, deep convection, interannual variability, interdecadal variability, semi-arid climate
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Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
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