The DOI matches its Crossref record; 5 of the 5 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Historic and future increase in the global land area affected by monthly heat extremes
Open accessAbstract
Climatic warming of about 0.5 ° C in the global mean since the 1970s has strongly increased the occurrence-probability of heat extremes on monthly to seasonal time scales. For the 21st century, climate models predict more substantial warming. Here we show that the multi-model mean of the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) climate models accurately reproduces the evolution over time and spatial patterns of the historically observed increase in monthly heat extremes. For the near-term (i.e., by 2040), the models predict a robust, several-fold increase in the frequency of such heat extremes, irrespective of the emission scenario. However, mitigation can strongly reduce the number of heat extremes by the second half of the 21st century. Unmitigated climate change causes most (>50%) continental regions to move to a new climatic regime with the coldest summer months by the end of the century substantially hotter than the hottest experienced today. We show that the land fraction experiencing extreme heat as a function of global mean temperature follows a simple cumulative distribution function, which depends only on natural variability and the level of spatial heterogeneity in the warming.
Overview
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Citations
Cites
An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., & Meehl, G. A. (2012) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/bams-d-11-00094.1 · Cited by 14,052
Coumou, D., & Rahmstorf, S. (2012) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate1452 · Cited by 2,289
Self-citationDeath toll exceeded 70,000 in Europe during the summer of 2003
Robine, J.-M., Cheung, S. L. K., Le Roy, S., Van Oyen, H., Griffiths, C., Michel, J.-P., & Herrmann, F. R. (2007) · Comptes Rendus. Biologies · doi:10.1016/j.crvi.2007.12.001 · Cited by 2,127
Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003
Stott, P. A., Stone, D. A., & Allen, M. R. (2004) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature03089 · Cited by 1,735
The Hot Summer of 2010: Redrawing the Temperature Record Map of Europe
Barriopedro, D., Fischer, E. M., Luterbacher, J., Trigo, R. M., & García-Herrera, R. (2011) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1201224 · Cited by 1,656
Cited by
Health and climate change: policy responses to protect public health
Watts, N., Adger, W. N., Agnolucci, P., Blackstock, J., Byass, P., Cai, W., Chaytor, S., Colbourn, T., Collins, M., Cooper, A., et al. (2015) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(15)60854-6 · Cited by 2,055
Climate change impacts in Sub-Saharan Africa: from physical changes to their social repercussions
Serdeczny, O., Adams, S., Baarsch, F., Coumou, D., Robinson, A., Hare, W., Schaeffer, M., Perrette, M., & Reinhardt, J. (2017) · Regional Environmental Change · doi:10.1007/s10113-015-0910-2 · Cited by 1,037
Self-citationPerkins, S. E. (2015) · Atmospheric Research · doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2015.05.014 · Cited by 875
Schleussner, C.-F., Lissner, T. K., Fischer, E. M., Wohland, J., Perrette, M., Golly, A., Rogelj, J., Childers, K., Schewe, J., Frieler, K., et al. (2016) · Earth System Dynamics · doi:10.5194/esd-7-327-2016 · Cited by 680
Urban, J., Ingwers, M. W., McGuire, M. A., & Teskey, R. O. (2017) · Journal of Experimental Botany · doi:10.1093/jxb/erx052 · Cited by 486
Metadata
- Authors
- Coumou, D., & Robinson, A.
- Venue
- Environmental Research Letters
- Publisher
- IOP Publishing
- Published
- 2013-08-14
- Volume
- 8
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 034018
- ISSN
- 1748-9326 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2101948993
- Cited by
- 402
- References
- 5
- FWCI
- 22.41
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
How to cite
Cite CoChat for the checks on this page, and the paper for its own findings.
- This page
- CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Historic and future increase in the global land area affected by monthly heat extremes. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034018
- The paper
- Coumou, D., & Robinson, A. (2013). Historic and future increase in the global land area affected by monthly heat extremes. Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034018
Data sources
Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
