Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5 °C and 2 °C
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Abstract
Abstract. Robust appraisals of climate impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase are vital to guide assessments of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. The 2015 Paris Agreement includes a two-headed temperature goal: "holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C". Despite the prominence of these two temperature limits, a comprehensive overview of the differences in climate impacts at these levels is still missing. Here we provide an assessment of key impacts of climate change at warming levels of 1.5 °C and 2 °C, including extreme weather events, water availability, agricultural yields, sea-level rise and risk of coral reef loss. Our results reveal substantial differences in impacts between a 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming that are highly relevant for the assessment of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. For heat-related extremes, the additional 0.5 °C increase in global-mean temperature marks the difference between events at the upper limit of present-day natural variability and a new climate regime, particularly in tropical regions. Similarly, this warming difference is likely to be decisive for the future of tropical coral reefs. In a scenario with an end-of-century warming of 2 °C, virtually all tropical coral reefs are projected to be at risk of severe degradation due to temperature-induced bleaching from 2050 onwards. This fraction is reduced to about 90 % in 2050 and projected to decline to 70 % by 2100 for a 1.5 °C scenario. Analyses of precipitation-related impacts reveal distinct regional differences and hot-spots of change emerge. Regional reduction in median water availability for the Mediterranean is found to nearly double from 9 % to 17 % between 1.5 °C and 2 °C, and the projected lengthening of regional dry spells increases from 7 to 11 %. Projections for agricultural yields differ between crop types as well as world regions. While some (in particular high-latitude) regions may benefit, tropical regions like West Africa, South-East Asia, as well as Central and northern South America are projected to face substantial local yield reductions, particularly for wheat and maize. Best estimate sea-level rise projections based on two illustrative scenarios indicate a 50 cm rise by 2100 relative to year 2000-levels for a 2 °C scenario, and about 10 cm lower levels for a 1.5 °C scenario. In a 1.5 °C scenario, the rate of sea-level rise in 2100 would be reduced by about 30 % compared to a 2 °C scenario. Our findings highlight the importance of regional differentiation to assess both future climate risks and different vulnerabilities to incremental increases in global-mean temperature. The article provides a consistent and comprehensive assessment of existing projections and a good basis for future work on refining our understanding of the difference between impacts at 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming.
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- Authors
- Schleussner, C.-F., Lissner, T. K., Fischer, E. M., Wohland, J., Perrette, M., Golly, A., Rogelj, J., Childers, K., Schewe, J., Frieler, K., Mengel, M., Hare, W., & Schaeffer, M.
- Affiliations
- Climate Analytics (DE)
- ETH Zurich (CH)
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE)
- University of Potsdam (DE)
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (AT)
- Corresponding author
- Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich
- Lissner, Tabea K.
- Fischer, Erich M.
- Wohland, Jan
- Perrette, Mahé
- Golly, Antonius
- Rogelj, Joeri
- Childers, Katelin
- Schewe, Jacob
- Frieler, Katja
- Mengel, Matthias
- Schaeffer, Michiel
- ORCID
- Venue
- Earth System Dynamics
- Publisher
- Copernicus GmbH
- Published
- 2016-04-21
- Volume
- 7
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 327-351
- ISSN
- 2190-4979 (ISSN-L)
- 2190-4987
- OpenAlex
- W2180539426
- Cited by
- 680
- References
- 8
- Citations by year
- 2026: 27 · 2025: 43 · 2024: 54 · 2023: 58 · 2022: 85 · 2021: 75 · 2020: 69 · 2019: 69 · 2018: 121 · 2017: 65 · 2016: 12
- FWCI
- 66.00
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Earth System Dynamics (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- IIASA PURE (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis) (acceptedVersion)
- Socio-Environmental Systems Modeling (acceptedVersion, cc-by)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Publication Database GFZ (GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences) (submittedVersion)
- Publication Database GFZ (GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- publish.UP (University of Potsdam) (submittedVersion)
- RENATE (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Repository for Publications and Research Data (ETH Zurich) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- RENATE (cc-by)
- ETH Zürich Research Collection (cc-by)
- Funders
- U.S. Department of Energy
- Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (01LS1201A)
- Bundesministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz, nukleare Sicherheit und Verbraucherschutz
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Environmental Impact
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Keywords
- climate change impacts, 1.5 °C warming target, 2°C target, dangerous anthropogenic interference, extreme heat, coral bleaching, water availability, dry spells, agricultural yields, sea level rise, heavy rainfall, tropical regions, Mediterranean drought, Paris Agreement temperature goals, climate targets, climate change mitigation and adaptation
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