Climate change shifts forward flowering and reduces crop waterlogging stress
Open accessAbstract
Climate change will drive increased frequencies of extreme climatic events. Despite this, there is little scholarly information on the extent to which waterlogging caused by extreme rainfall events will impact on crop physiological behaviour. To improve the ability to reliably model crop growth and development under soil waterlogging stress, we advanced the process-basis of waterlogging in the farming systems model Agricultural Systems Production Systems sIMulator. Our new mathematical description of waterlogging adequately represented waterlogging stress effects on the development, biomass and grain yield of many commercial Australian barley genotypes. We then used the improved model to examine how optimal flowering periods (OFPs, the point at which long-term abiotic stresses are minimal) change under historical and future climates in waterlogging-prone environments, and found that climate change will reduce waterlogging stress and shift forward OFP (26 d earlier on average across locations). For the emissions scenario representative concentration pathway 8.5 at 2090, waterlogging stresses diminished but this was not enough to prevent substantial yield reduction due to increasingly severe high temperature stress (−35% average reduction in yield across locations, genotypes and sowing dates). It was shown that seasonal waterlogging stress patterns under future conditions will be similar to those occurring historically. Yield reduction caused by waterlogging stress was 6% and 4% on average across sites under historical and future climates. To adapt, both genotypic and management adaptations will be required: earlier sowing and planting waterlogging tolerant genotypes mitigate yield penalty caused by waterlogging by up to 26% and 24% under historical and future climates. We conclude that even though the prevalence of waterlogging in future will diminish, climate change and extreme climatic events will have substantial and perverse effects on the productivity and sustainability of Australian farms.
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Waterlogging has become more frequent and unpredictable due to climate change, with an increased impact on barley cropping regions.
“Waterlogging has become more frequent and unpredictable due to climate change, with an increased impact on barley cropping regions (Liu et al., 2021).”
From Genetic resources and precise gene editing for targeted improvement of barley abiotic stress tolerance (2023) · cites this paper as Liu et al., 2021
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“Waterlogging has become more frequent and un‐ predictable due to climate change, with an increased impact on barley cropping regions (Liu et al., 2021).”
- Authors
- Liu, K., Harrison, M. T., Archontoulis, S. V., Huth, N., Yang, R., Liu, D. L., Yan, H., Meinke, H., Huber, I., Feng, P., Ibrahim, A., Zhang, Y., Tian, X., & Zhou, M.
- Affiliations
- University of Tasmania (AU)
- Iowa State University (US)
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (AU)
- Yangtze University (CN)
- New South Wales Department of Primary Industries (AU)
- China Agricultural University (CN)
- Corresponding author
- Harrison, Matthew Tom
- Zhang, Yunbo
- ORCID
- Venue
- Environmental Research Letters
- Publisher
- IOP Publishing
- Published
- 2021-08-19
- Volume
- 16
- Issue
- 9
- Pages
- 094017
- ISSN
- 1748-9326 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W3189721959
- Cited by
- 88
- References
- 51
- Citations by year
- 2026: 12 · 2025: 16 · 2024: 25 · 2023: 17 · 2022: 17 · 2021: 1
- FWCI
- 9.02
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Environmental Research Letters (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- UTAS Research Repository (acceptedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
- Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- Yangtze University
- Grain Research Development Corporation (9176582)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Plant Science › Plant responses to water stress
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics › Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Soil Science › Soil Management and Crop Yield
- Keywords
- climate change, flooding stress, barley, flowering time, heavy rainfall, crop yield, heat stress, sowing date, crop growth simulation, RCP8.5, Australian agriculture
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