Silver lining to a climate crisis in multiple prospects for alleviating crop waterlogging under future climates
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Abstract
Extreme weather events threaten food security, yet global assessments of impacts caused by crop waterlogging are rare. Here we first develop a paradigm that distils common stress patterns across environments, genotypes and climate horizons. Second, we embed improved process-based understanding into a farming systems model to discern changes in global crop waterlogging under future climates. Third, we develop avenues for adapting cropping systems to waterlogging contextualised by environment. We find that yield penalties caused by waterlogging increase from 3–11% historically to 10–20% by 2080, with penalties reflecting a trade-off between the duration of waterlogging and the timing of waterlogging relative to crop stage. We document greater potential for waterlogging-tolerant genotypes in environments with longer temperate growing seasons (e.g., UK, France, Russia, China), compared with environments with higher annualised ratios of evapotranspiration to precipitation (e.g., Australia). Under future climates, altering sowing time and adoption of waterlogging-tolerant genotypes reduces yield penalties by 18%, while earlier sowing of winter genotypes alleviates waterlogging by 8%. We highlight the serendipitous outcome wherein waterlogging stress patterns under present conditions are likely to be similar to those in the future, suggesting that adaptations for future climates could be designed using stress patterns realised today.
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Modelling predicts more frequent and severe waterlogging stress for countries such as Argentina, Ethiopia, China, the UK, France, and Germany, some of which are the world's largest barley producers.
“However, modelling predicts more frequent and severe waterlogging stress for countries such as Argentina, Ethiopia, China, the UK, France, and Germany, some of which are the world's largest barley producers (Liu et al., 2023).”
From Genetic resources and precise gene editing for targeted improvement of barley abiotic stress tolerance (2023) · cites this paper as Liu et al., 2023
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- Authors
- Liu, K., Harrison, M. T., Yan, H., Liu, D. L., Meinke, H., Hoogenboom, G., Wang, B., Peng, B., Guan, K., Jaegermeyr, J., Wang, E., Zhang, F., Yin, X., Archontoulis, S., Nie, L., Badea, A., Man, J., Wallach, D., Zhao, J., Benjumea, A. B., Fahad, S., Tian, X., Wang, W., Tao, F., Zhang, Z., Rötter, R., Yuan, Y., Zhu, M., Dai, P., Nie, J., Yang, Y., Zhang, Y., & Zhou, M.
- Affiliations
- University of Tasmania (AU)
- New South Wales Department of Primary Industries (AU)
- University of Florida (US)
- University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign (US)
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (AU)
- Lanzhou University (CN)
- China Agricultural University (CN)
- Iowa State University (US)
- Hainan University (CN)
- Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (CA)
- Huazhong Agricultural University (CN)
- Institut National de Recherche pour l'Agriculture, l'Alimentation et l'Environnement (FR)
- Abdul Wali Khan University Mardan (PK)
- Yangtze University (CN)
- Yangzhou University (CN)
- Chinese Academy of Sciences (CN)
- Beijing Normal University (CN)
- University of Göttingen (DE)
- Anyang Institute of Technology (CN)
- Corresponding author
- Harrison, Matthew Tom
- ORCID
- Liu, Ke
- Harrison, Matthew Tom
- Yan, Haoliang
- Liu, De Li
- Meinke, Holger
- Hoogenboom, Gerrit
- Wang, Bin
- Peng, Bin
- Guan, Kaiyu
- Wang, Enli
- Zhang, Feng
- Yin, Xiaogang
- Archontoulis, Sotirios
- Nie, Lixiao
- Badea, Ana
- Man, Jianguo
- Wallach, Daniel
- Zhao, Jin
- Benjumea, Ana Borrego
- Fahad, Shah
- Tian, Xiaohai
- Wang, Weilu
- Tao, Fulu
- Zhang, Zhao
- Rötter, Reimund
- Dai, Panhong
- Nie, Jiangwen
- Yang, Yadong
- Zhang, Yunbo
- Zhou, Meixue
- Venue
- Nature Communications
- Published
- 2023-02-10
- Volume
- 14
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 765-765
- ISSN
- 2041-1723 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC9918449
- OpenAlex
- W4319915600
- Cited by
- 252
- References
- 79
- Citations by year
- 2026: 44 · 2025: 59 · 2024: 78 · 2023: 71
- FWCI
- 39.86
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- Nature Communications (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- HAL (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- GoeScholar The Publication Server of the Georg-August-Universität Göttingen (Georg-August-Universität Göttingen) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Greater South Information System
- Funders
- Grains Research and Development Corporation (UOT1906-002RTX)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Plant Science › Plant responses to water stress
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics › Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Soil Science › Irrigation Practices and Water Management
- Keywords
- climate change impacts on crops, yield penalty, sowing date, growing season length, extreme weather events, food security
- MeSH terms
- Acclimatization, Adaptation, Physiological, Agriculture, Seasons, Water
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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