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The Table 2 Fallacy: Presenting and Interpreting Confounder and Modifier Coefficients
Open accessAbstract
It is common to present multiple adjusted effect estimates from a single model in a single table. For example, a table might show odds ratios for one or more exposures and also for several confounders from a single logistic regression. This can lead to mistaken interpretations of these estimates. We use causal diagrams to display the sources of the problems. Presentation of exposure and confounder effect estimates from a single model may lead to several interpretative difficulties, inviting confusion of direct-effect estimates with total-effect estimates for covariates in the model. These effect estimates may also be confounded even though the effect estimate for the main exposure is not confounded. Interpretation of these effect estimates is further complicated by heterogeneity (variation, modification) of the exposure effect measure across covariate levels. We offer suggestions to limit potential misunderstandings when multiple effect estimates are presented, including precise distinction between total and direct effect measures from a single model, and use of multiple models tailored to yield total-effect estimates for covariates.
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“After controlling for gender and age as potential confounding factors, independent associations between the outcome variables of burnout as well as anxiety/depression and the explanatory variables (i.e., ALTs, psychological flexibility) were examined [58].”
From The mediating role of psychological flexibility in the association of autistic-like traits with burnout and depression in medical students during clinical clerkships in Japan: a university-based cross-sectional study (2023) · cites this paper as [58]
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Does China’s aid increase individual happiness of recipient countries?
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“39 Additionally, changes in participant characteristics between visits 1 and 5 may not capture potentially clinically relevant fluctuations in these characteristics that may have occurred between time points.”
BackgroundUzar, H., Karadoğan, E., & Cakir, B. (2024) · Uludağ Üniversitesi Tıp Fakültesi Dergisi · doi:10.32708/uutfd.1463926 · Cited by 1
Housing conditions and risk of incident COPD: a Danish cohort study, 2000–2018
Kloster, S., Kirkegaard, A. M., Davidsen, M., Christensen, A. I., Nielsen, N. S., Gunnarsen, L., Vestbo, J., & Ersbøll, A. K. (2024) · BMC Public Health · doi:10.1186/s12889-024-19131-3 · Cited by 1
“A further strength of the study is that we included a unique set of confounders for each studied exposure, thereby minimizing the risk of confounding or, e.g., controlling for a mediator (a concept known as Table 2 Fallacy [38, 39]).”
BackgroundUgheoke, S. O. (2024) · Malaysian Management Journal · doi:10.32890/mmj2024.28.9 · Cited by 1
Lim, Z. J., Karalapillai, D., Kolawole, H., Fiddes, C., Pilcher, D., & Subramaniam, A. (2024) · Critical Care and Resuscitation · doi:10.1016/j.ccrj.2024.06.002 · Cited by 1
Regression Methods for Epidemiological Analysis
Greenland, S. (2024) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-1-4614-6625-3_17-2 · Cited by 2
Self-citationNatural Course and Predictors of Sustained Exergaming in Young Adults
O’Loughlin, E. K., Sabiston, C. M., Riglea, T., Naja, M., Bélanger, M. F., Wellman, R. J., Sylvestre, M., & O’Loughlin, J. L. (2024) · Games for Health Journal · doi:10.1089/g4h.2024.0021 · Cited by 1
“27,28 We concluded that a variable was associated with sustained exergaming if the CI for the estimate excluded the null value of 1.0.”
InfluentialChauvet‐Gélinier, J., Cottenet, J., Jollant, F., & Quantin, C. (2024) · Epidemiology and Psychiatric Sciences · doi:10.1017/s2045796024000568 · Cited by 1
“For this analysis, we presented the effect of all adjustment variables, but it should be noted that only the effect of SARS-CoV-2 infection is considered as the total effect on the risk of readmission for self-harm (Westreich 2013).”
Gustavsen, E. M., Norderval, S., Dørum, L. M., Balto, A., Heimdal, R., Vonen, B., Stensland, E., Haukland, E. C., & Hauglann, B. (2024) · Research in Health Services & Regions · doi:10.1007/s43999-024-00057-7 · Cited by 1
“Directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) were used in separate analyses to avoid Table 2 fallacy [31].”
Hernandez, C. J., Trujillo, D., Tate, M., Baguso, G. N., Quintana, J., McNaughten, K. C., Jain, J. P., Santos, G., Arayasirikul, S., McFarland, W., et al. (2025) · AIDS and Behavior · doi:10.1007/s10461-024-04608-4 · Cited by 1
“…the impacts of multiple factors are derived from a single multivariable model especially when there is more than one exposure of interest, we built a multivariable Poisson regression with a robust error variance model for each exposure while controlling for age, race/ethnicity and HIV status [36].”
Sociodemographic inequities in overall survival among younger and older women with cervical cancer
Holt, H. K., Calip, G. S., Peterson, C. E., MacLaughlan, S. D., GELLER, S. E., & Guadamuz, J. S. (2025) · Cancer Causes & Control · doi:10.1007/s10552-025-01961-0 · Cited by 1
“We did not present fully adjusted models for all these sociodemographic factors in one model as they are each likely on the causal pathway and thus interrelated [31].”
Cowan, L. M., Adamestam, I., Masterson, J. A., Beatty, M., Boardman, J. P., Chislett, L., Johnston, P., Joss, J., Lawrence, H., Litchfield, K., et al. (2025) · Journal of the Intensive Care Society · doi:10.1177/17511437251313700 · Cited by 1
Abdelaziz, A., Sarker, J., Lien, P.-W., Williams, D. J., Grijalva, C. G., Lee, T. A., & Antoon, J. W. (2025) · The Journal of Pediatrics · doi:10.1016/j.jpeds.2025.114574 · Cited by 1
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Factors associated with antidepressant use following hospitalization for acute stroke
Nanavati, H. D., Wright, N. C., Smith, M. J., Hardy, S. T., Howard, V. J., & Lin, C. (2025) · The International Journal of Psychiatry in Medicine · doi:10.1177/00912174251348329 · Cited by 1
A Multidimensional Model of Social Autistic Function and Its Effects on Quality of Life
Pieslinger, J., Igelström, E., & Igelström, K. M. (2025) · Autism in Adulthood · doi:10.1089/aut.2024.0262 · Cited by 1
Watson, E. J., Glass, D. J., & Petito, L. C. (2025) · American Journal of Human Biology · doi:10.1002/ajhb.70149 · Cited by 3
“The widespread naïve interpretation of covariate coefficients has been termed the “Table 2 Fallacy” (Westreich et al. 2021; Westreich and Greenland 2013).”
Oral Health and Risk of Incident Diabetes: Evidence from a Population-Based Cohort Study
Cole, M. S., Alvarez, C. M., & Farouk, A. S. (2025) · Journal of Current Research in Oral Surgery · doi:10.51847/sdbdtyjqwg · Cited by 1
Changing predictors of statin initiation in US women over two decades
Kinsey, T. L., Stürmer, T., Poole, C., Rothman, K. J., & Glynn, R. J. (2018) · Pharmacoepidemiology and Drug Safety · doi:10.1002/pds.4704 · Cited by 1
Li, H., Geng, Z., Sun, X., Yu, Y., & Xue, F. (2020) · BMC Genetics · doi:10.1186/s12863-020-00876-w · Cited by 1
Tobacco, Alcohol, Drug Use, and Intimate Partner Violence Among MSM Living With HIV
(2019) · Journal of the Association of Nurses in AIDS Care · doi:10.1097/jnc.0000000000000143 · Cited by 1
Gittins, M., Carder, M., Seed, M., Iskandar, I. Y. K., Daniels, S., & van Tongeren, M. (2023) · Occupational and Environmental Medicine · doi:10.1136/oemed-2022-108627 · Cited by 1
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Inequalities in health : social, biological, ethnic and life-course perspectives
Khanolkar, A. R. (2013) · Figshare · Cited by 1
Rankin, D. A., Rebeiro, P. F., Haddadin, Z., Halasa, N., & Greevy, R. A. (2020) · Infection Control and Hospital Epidemiology · doi:10.1017/ice.2020.123 · Cited by 1
A scoping review of causal methods enabling predictions under hypothetical interventionsPreprint
Lijing Lin, A., Sperrin, M., Jenkins, D. A., Martin, G. P., & Peek, N. B. (2020) · arXiv (Cornell University) · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2011.09815 · Cited by 1
“Moreover, each clinical intervention scenario will require its own model for identifying treatment effects from observational data (11).”
BackgroundInfluentialCOVID-19 and the Epistemology of Epidemiological Models at the Dawn of AIPreprint
Ellison, G. T. H. (2020) · Preprints.org · doi:10.20944/preprints202008.0245.v1 · Cited by 1
“Nevertheless, they are commonly used as if they can and thereby invoke a form of inferential bias known as the “Table 2 fallacy” 5 (Westreich and Greenland 2013) which can lead to fundamental misinterpretation of the causal relationships involved, with potentially dangerous implications for the…”
BackgroundPieper, L. (2021) · UA Campus Repository (The University of Arizona) · Cited by 1
To Explain or to Predict: Important Aspect to Consider Also in Orthopaedics: Letter to the Editor
Reito, A. R., & Ponkilainen, V. (2021) · The American Journal of Sports Medicine · doi:10.1177/03635465211030215 · Cited by 1
Kronfli, N., Dussault, C., Maheu‐Giroux, M., Halavrezos, A., Chalifoux, S., Sherman, J. P., Park, H., Balso, L. D., Cheng, M. P., Poulin, S., et al. (2021) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3959665 · Cited by 1
Metadata
- Authors
- Westreich, D., & Greenland, S.
- Affiliations
- Duke University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Westreich, D.
- Venue
- American Journal of Epidemiology
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2013-01-30
- Volume
- 177
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 292-298
- ISSN
- 0002-9262 (ISSN-L)
- 1476-6256
- PMC
- PMC3626058
- OpenAlex
- W2138008655
- Cited by
- 1,276
- References
- 30
- Citations by year
- 2026: 177 · 2025: 213 · 2024: 212 · 2023: 176 · 2022: 192 · 2021: 108 · 2020: 84 · 2019: 39 · 2018: 29 · 2017: 11 · 2016: 3 · 2015: 15 · 2014: 13 · 2013: 4
- FWCI
- 10.27
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- American Journal of Epidemiology (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institutes of Health (AI064518)
- Duke Global Health Institute, Duke University
- University of California, Los Angeles
- National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (P30AI064518)
- Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (R00HD063961)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Advanced Causal Inference Techniques
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods in Epidemiology
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty › Meta-analysis and systematic reviews
- Keywords
- causal graphs, confounding, odds ratio, logistic regression
- MeSH terms
- HIV Seropositivity, Humans, Mathematical Computing, North Carolina, Regression Analysis, Risk Factors, Smoking, Statistics as Topic, Violence, Work, HIV Infections, Confounding Factors, Epidemiologic, Multivariate Analysis, Logistic Models, Odds Ratio, Epidemiologic Studies, Risk Assessment, Stroke
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