Quantifying Biases in Causal Models: Classical Confounding vs Collider-Stratification Bias
Abstract
It has long been known that stratifying on variables affected by the study exposure can create selection bias. More recently it has been shown that stratifying on a variable that precedes exposure and disease can induce confounding, even if there is no confounding in the unstratified (crude) estimate. This paper examines the relative magnitudes of these biases under some simple causal models in which the stratification variable is graphically depicted as a collider (a variable directly affected by two or more other variables in the graph). The results suggest that bias from stratifying on variables affected by exposure and disease may often be comparable in size with bias from classical confounding (bias from failing to stratify on a common cause of exposure and disease), whereas other biases from collider stratification may tend to be much smaller.
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This bias can arise from conditioning on the outcome, a post-outcome variable, a post-treatment variable, or a pre-treatment variable.
“Endogenous selection can result from conditioning on an outcome, but it can also result from conditioning on variables that have been affected by the outcome, variables that temporally precede the outcome, and even variables that temporally precede the treatment (Greenland 2003).”
From Endogenous Selection Bias: The Problem of Conditioning on a Collider Variable (2014) · cites this paper as Greenland 2003
Conditioning on a pre-treatment collider will usually lead to a small bias.
“Finally, conditioning on a pre-treatment collider (as in Figures 12 and 13) will usually lead to a small bias, which is why recognizing latent homophily bias as endogenous selection bias (as opposed to confounding bias) should be good news to network analysts.”
From Endogenous Selection Bias: The Problem of Conditioning on a Collider Variable (2014) · cites this paper as Greenland 2003
Greenland derived analytic results and approximations for the relative size of endogenous selection bias and confounding bias in DAGs with binary variables.
“Greenland (2003), in particular, has derived useful analytic results and approximations for the relative size of endogenous selection bias and confounding bias in DAGs with binary variables (see also Kaufman et al. 2009).”
From Endogenous Selection Bias: The Problem of Conditioning on a Collider Variable (2014) · cites this paper as Greenland 2003
If a pre-treatment variable is both a collider and a confounder, conditioning on it may remove more bias than it induces, even though nonparametric point identification is still not feasible.
“Furthermore, if the pre-treatment variable is both a collider and a confounder (as in Figure 13c), then conditioning on it may remove more bias than it induces, even though nonparametric point identification is still not feasible.”
From Endogenous Selection Bias: The Problem of Conditioning on a Collider Variable (2014) · cites this paper as Greenland 2003
When all variables in the DAG are binary, Greenland suggests that controlling for a variable that is both a confounder and a collider likely but not necessarily removes more bias than it creates.
“When all variables in the DAG are binary, Greenland (2003) suggests that controlling for a variable that is both a confounder and a collider, as in Figure 13c, likely (but not necessarily) removes more bias than it creates.”
From Endogenous Selection Bias: The Problem of Conditioning on a Collider Variable (2014) · cites this paper as Greenland 2003
Absent strong parametric assumptions, size and sign of the bias depend on the exact DAG structure, the sizes of effects and their variation across individuals, and the distribution of the variables.
“Absent strong parametric assumptions, size and sign of the bias will depend on the exact structure of the DAG, the sizes of the effects and their variation across individuals, and the distribution of the variables (Greenland 2003).”
From Endogenous Selection Bias: The Problem of Conditioning on a Collider Variable (2014) · cites this paper as Greenland 2003
If a pre-treatment collider is also a confounder, conditioning on it generally but not always removes more bias than it induces, especially if the analysis conditions on many other pre-treatment variables.
“If the pre-treatment collider is also a confounder, then conditioning on it will generally, but not always, remove more bias than it induces (Greenland 2003), especially if the analysis further conditions on many other pre-treatment variables (Steiner et al. 2010).”
From Endogenous Selection Bias: The Problem of Conditioning on a Collider Variable (2014) · cites this paper as Greenland 2003
Conditioning on an intermediate collider may lead to bias larger than the effects pointing into the collider, though usually smaller if the intermediate collider does not itself exert a causal effect on the outcome.
“Second, conditioning on an intermediate collider may lead to bias that is larger than the effects pointing into the collider, although the bias will usually be smaller than those effects if the intermediate collider does not itself exert a causal effect on the outcome.”
From Endogenous Selection Bias: The Problem of Conditioning on a Collider Variable (2014) · cites this paper as Greenland 2003
Conditioning on post-outcome colliders affected by treatment and outcome induces the same bias as the corresponding confounding bias if the arrows into the collider were reversed.
“First, conditioning on post-outcome colliders that are affected by treatment and outcome, T→C←Y, induces the same bias as would the corresponding confounding bias if the directions of the arrows into the collider were reversed, T←C→Y.”
From Endogenous Selection Bias: The Problem of Conditioning on a Collider Variable (2014) · cites this paper as Greenland 2003
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- Authors
- Greenland, S.
- Affiliations
- University of California, Los Angeles (US)
- Corresponding author
- Greenland, Sander
- ORCID
- Greenland, Sander
- Venue
- Epidemiology
- Published
- 2003-05
- Volume
- 14
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 300-306
- ISSN
- 1044-3983 (ISSN-L)
- 1531-5487
- OpenAlex
- W1992882281
- Cited by
- 810
- References
- 7
- Citations by year
- 2026: 15 · 2025: 48 · 2024: 47 · 2023: 59 · 2022: 51 · 2021: 64 · 2020: 64 · 2019: 58 · 2018: 39 · 2017: 52 · 2016: 46 · 2015: 31 · 2014: 47 · 2013: 42 · 2012: 27
- FWCI
- 5.49
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Epidemiology (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (R01HD039746)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Advanced Causal Inference Techniques
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods in Epidemiology
- Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Artificial Intelligence › Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference
- Keywords
- collider stratification bias, selection bias, stratification, particle colliders, causal models, bias quantification, common cause
- MeSH terms
- Humans, Bias, Causality, Confounding Factors, Epidemiologic
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