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Cited by 15Crime Patterns and InterventionsPolicing Practices and PerceptionsCriminal Justice and Penology

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Estimating the Reliability of Crime Data in Geographic Areas

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Brunton-Smith, Ian, Cernat, Alex, Pina-Sánchez, Jose, Buil-Gil, David·2024·The British Journal of Criminology
DOI 10.1093/bjc/azae018
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Abstract

Crime data are problematic: Crimes that are never reported undermine its validity and differences in police recording practices affect its reliability. However, the true extent of these problems is not well known, with existing studies suffering from a number of methodological limitations. We examine the quality of police recorded crime data and survey-based crime estimates recorded in England and Wales using a robust latent trait model that effectively represents the competing sources of error. We find that whilst crime rates derived from police data systematically underestimate the true extent of crime, they are substantially more reliable than estimates from survey data. Reliability is lower for violence and criminal damage and is getting worse over time.

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Citations

Cites

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Metadata

Authors
Brunton-Smith, I., Cernat, A., Pina-Sánchez, J., & Buil-Gil, D.
Affiliations
  • Department of Sociology, University of Surrey , Guildford ,
  • Department of Social Statistics, University of Manchester , Manchester ,
  • Centre for Criminal Justice Studies, School of Law, University of Leeds , Leeds ,
  • Department of Criminology, University of Manchester , Manchester ,
ORCID
Venue
The British Journal of Criminology
Publisher
Oxford University Press (OUP)
Published
2024-06-05
Volume
64
Issue
6
Pages
1347-1361
ISSN
  • 0007-0955 (ISSN-L)
  • 1464-3529
DOI
10.1093/bjc/azae018
OpenAlex
W4399352251
Cited by
15
References
1
Citations by year
2026: 4 · 2025: 7 · 2024: 1
FWCI
8.64
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • The British Journal of Criminology (publishedVersion)
  • Research Explorer (The University of Manchester) (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
  • White Rose Research Online (University of Leeds, The University of Sheffield, University of York) (submittedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
Funders
Economic and Social Research Council (ES/T015667/1)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Crime Patterns and Interventions
  • Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Policing Practices and Perceptions
  • Social Sciences › Law › Criminal Justice and Penology
Keywords
police-recorded crime, underreporting of crime, latent trait models, measurement error, crime rates, violence, criminal damage, England and Wales

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