CoChat
Sign Up
Cited by 40Crime Patterns and InterventionsCriminal Justice and PenologyPolicing Practices and Perceptions

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 62 of the 62 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.

Is Crime Rising or Falling? A Comparison of Police-Recorded Crime and Victimization Surveys

Ariel, Barak, Bland, Matthew·2019·Methods of Criminology and Criminal Justice Research
DOI 10.1108/s1521-613620190000024004
Open this paper in CoChat — free account

Abstract

Purpose – Statistics about the level of crime continue to attract public and political attention but are often presented in conflicting ways. In England and Wales, police-recorded crimes are no longer considered “national statistics” and, instead, the crime survey of England and Wales (CSEW) is used. However, it is not clear why partial population data (e.g., police-recorded crime) are considered less reliable or valid for measuring temporal crime trends in society than inferential statistical estimation models that are based on samples such as CSEW. This is particularly the case for approximating rare events like high-harm violence and specific harmful modus operandi (e.g., knife crime and firearms). In this chapter, the authors cross-reference victim survey and police-recorded data to determine similarities and contradictions in trends. Methods – Using police data and CSEW estimates, the authors contrast variance and logarithmic trend lines since 1981 across a range of data categories and then triangulate the results with assault records from hospital consultations. Findings – Change in crime rates in recent years is neither as unique nor extreme as promulgated in media coverage of crime. Moreover, analyses show conflicting narratives with a host of plausible but inconclusive depictions of the “actual” amount of crime committed in the society. The authors also conclude that neither source of data can serve as the benchmark of the other. Thus, both data systems suffer from major methodological perils, and the estimated crime means in CSEW, inferred from samples, are not necessarily more valid or accurate than police-recorded data (particularly for low-frequency and high-harm crimes). On the other hand police-recorded data are susceptible to variations in recording practices. As such, the authors propose a number of areas for further research, and a revised taxonomy of crime classifications to assist with future public interpretations of crime statistics. Originality – There is much public and academic discourse about different sources of crime measurement yet infrequent analysis of the precise similarities and differences between the methods. This chapter offers a new perspective on long-term trends and highlights an issue of much contemporaneous concern: rising violent crime.

Overview

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1108/s1521-613620190000024004

Cites

62 of 62 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Recomputing p-values needs the paper’s full text.

Verification

Claims the paper makes

This paper’s full text isn’t openly available, so its claims and self-check weren’t run. The registry and citation checks still apply.

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

  • It is unlikely that this study represents all violent crimes committed in Dorset during the period of study, as most crimes are not reported to the police.

    “Furthermore, it is unlikely that this study represents all violent crimes committed in Dorset during the period of study, as most crimes are not reported to the police (Ariel & Bland, 2019).”

    From The Compounding Effect: How Co-Offending Exacerbates the Harm Caused by Violent Offenders (2024) · cites this paper as Ariel & Bland, 2019

  • Inconsistency in data collection practices can result in wide variations in the recorded statistics of violence, making it challenging to compare or generalise findings across regions or time periods.

    “This inconsistency in data collection practices can result in wide variations in the recorded statistics of violence, making it challenging to compare or generalise findings across regions or time periods (Ariel & Bland, 2019).”

    From The Compounding Effect: How Co-Offending Exacerbates the Harm Caused by Violent Offenders (2024) · cites this paper as Ariel & Bland, 2019

  • Preventative deterrence messaging to prolific offenders and their co-offenders in the US has proven effective, reducing crime by 21% among those directly targeted and 15% across the total network.

    “Preventative deterrence messaging to prolific offenders and their co-offenders in the US has proven effective, reducing crime by 21% among those directly targeted and 15% across the total network (Ariel et al., 2019).”

    From The Compounding Effect: How Co-Offending Exacerbates the Harm Caused by Violent Offenders (2024) · cites this paper as Ariel et al., 2019

Citations

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

Research works printed but not linked: 13

  1. Ariel, 2018, “Not all evidence is created equal”: on the importance of matching research questions with research methods in evidence based policing. Evidence based policing: An introduction, 63
  2. Farrington, 2002, The Maryland scientific methods scale, 13
  3. Goldsmith, 1999, Analyzing crime patterns: Frontiers of practice
  4. Guilfoyle, 2013, Intelligent policing: How systems thinking methods eclipse conventional management practice
  5. HMICFRS., 2014, Crime-recording: Making the victim count – The final report of an inspection of crime data integrity in police forces in England and Wales
  6. Home Office., 2018, Crime in England and Wales: Year ending June 2018
  7. Home Office., 2018, Methodology: Crime in England and Wales quality and methodology information report
  8. House of Commons Public Affairs Select Committee., 2014, Caught red-handed: Why we can’t count on Police recorded crime statistics
  9. Maguire, 2002, Crime statistics: The ‘data explosion’ and its implications, 322
  10. Mercer, 2019, Crime figures: Sharp rise in homicides fuels call for more police funding
  11. Office for National Statistics, 2017, Crime in England and Wales: Year ending March 2017
  12. Office for National Statistics., 2018, Crime in England and Wales: Year ending March 2018
  13. Office for National Statistics., 2019, Crime in England and Wales QMI

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Related

Metadata

Authors
Ariel, B., & Bland, M.
ORCID
Venue
Methods of Criminology and Criminal Justice Research
Publisher
Emerald Publishing Limited
Published
2019-08-26
Pages
7-31
DOI
10.1108/s1521-613620190000024004
OpenAlex
W2965561382
Cited by
39
References
62
Citations by year
2026: 2 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 9 · 2023: 9 · 2022: 5 · 2021: 3 · 2020: 7
FWCI
27.64
Type
book chapter
Language
en
Open access
closed
Licence
www.emeraldinsight.com/page/tdm (tdm)
Locations
Emerald Group Publishing Limited eBooks (publishedVersion)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Crime Patterns and Interventions
  • Social Sciences › Law › Criminal Justice and Penology
  • Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Policing Practices and Perceptions
Keywords
crime trends, police-recorded crime, victimization surveys, knife crime, England and Wales

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review