Does hypoglycaemia increase the risk of cardiovascular events? A report from the ORIGIN trial
Abstract
AIMS: Hypoglycaemia caused by glucose-lowering therapy has been linked to cardiovascular (CV) events. The ORIGIN trial provides an opportunity to further assess this relationship. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 12 537 participants with dysglycaemia and high CV-risk were randomized to basal insulin glargine titrated to a fasting glucose of ≤ 5.3 mmol/L (95 mg/dL) or standard glycaemic care. Non-severe hypoglycaemia was defined as symptoms confirmed by glucose ≤ 54 mg/dL and severe hypoglycaemia as a requirement for assistance or glucose ≤ 36 mg/dL. Outcomes were: (i) the composite of CV death, non-fatal myocardial infarction or stroke; (ii) mortality; (iii) CV mortality; and (iv) arrhythmic death. Hazards were estimated before and after adjustment for a hypoglycaemia propensity score. During a median of 6.2 years (IQR: 5.8-6.7), non-severe hypoglycaemic episodes occurred in 41.7 and 14.4% glargine and standard group participants, respectively, while severe episodes occurred in 5.7 and 1.8%, respectively. Non-severe hypoglycaemia was not associated with any outcome following adjustment. Conversely, severe hypoglycaemia was associated with a greater risk for the primary outcome (HR: 1.58; 95% CI: 1.24-2.02, P < 0.001), mortality (HR: 1.74; 95% CI: 1.39-2.19, P < 0.001), CV death (HR: 1.71; 95% CI: 1.27-2.30, P < 0.001) and arrhythmic death (HR: 1.77; 95% CI: 1.17-2.67, P = 0.007). Similar findings were noted for severe nocturnal hypoglycaemia for the primary outcome and mortality. The severe hypoglycaemia hazard for all four outcomes was higher with standard care than with insulin glargine. CONCLUSION: Severe hypoglycaemia is associated with an increased risk for CV outcomes in people at high CV risk and dysglycaemia. Although allocation to insulin glargine vs. standard care was associated with an increased risk of severe and non-severe hypoglycaemia, the relative risk of CV outcomes with hypoglycaemia was lower with insulin glargine-based glucose-lowering therapy than with the standard glycaemic control. Trial Registration (ORIGIN ClinicalTrials.gov number NCT00069784).
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
Cardiac arrhythmia is thought to be a key mechanism underlying hypoglycemia-associated death.
“Cardiac arrhythmia is thought to be a key mechanism underlying hypoglycemia-associated death (4).”
From Effect of Hypoglycemia on QT Interval in Individuals With and Without Type 2 Diabetes: A Randomized Crossover Trial (2025) · cites this paper as [4]
The Introduction (page unavailable) identifies ventricular arrhythmias as a possible effect of hypoglycaemia that may contribute to cardiovascular events. The Discussion (page unavailable) also considers other mechanisms and says hypoglycaemia may be a marker, rather than a cause, of adverse outcomes. The paper does not establish or single out arrhythmia as a key mechanism of hypoglycaemia-associated death. (LLM, conf=0.84)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredSimilar results were confirmed in other trials.
“Similar results were confirmed in other trials.140,187,188”
From 2023 ESC guidelines for the management of cardiovascular disease in patients with diabetes. (2023) · cites this paper as [187]
Insulin-induced hypoglycaemia has been associated with nocturnal death (dead-in-bed syndrome) in type 1 diabetes.
“Insulin-induced hypoglycaemia has been associated with nocturnal death (also called 'dead-in-bed syndrome') in T1DM, and arrhythmic deaths were reported in several T2DM trials.187,576,[650][651][652][653][654]”
From 2023 ESC guidelines for the management of cardiovascular disease in patients with diabetes. (2023) · cites this paper as [187]
Arrhythmic deaths were reported in several type 2 diabetes trials.
“Insulin-induced hypoglycaemia has been associated with nocturnal death (also called 'dead-in-bed syndrome') in T1DM, and arrhythmic deaths were reported in several T2DM trials.187,576,[650][651][652][653][654]”
From 2023 ESC guidelines for the management of cardiovascular disease in patients with diabetes. (2023) · cites this paper as [187]
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Cites
Effects of Intensive Glucose Lowering in Type 2 Diabetes
(2008) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmoa0802743 · Cited by 7,888 · see citing works
Intensive blood glucose control and vascular outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes
(2008) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmoa0802987 · Cited by 7,397 · see citing works
Glucose control and vascular complications in veterans with type 2 diabetes
Duckworth, W., Abraira, C., Moritz, T., Reda, D., Emanuele, N., Reaven, P. D., Zieve, F. J., Marks, J., Davis, S. N., Hayward, R., et al. (2009) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmoa0808431 · Cited by 4,762 · see citing works
A Randomized Trial of Therapies for Type 2 Diabetes and Coronary Artery Disease
(2009) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmoa0805796 · Cited by 1,939 · see citing works
Basal insulin and cardiovascular and other outcomes in dysglycemia
The ORIGIN Trial Investigators (2012) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmoa1203858 · Cited by 1,636 · see citing works
Self-citationSevere hypoglycemia and risks of vascular events and death
Zoungas, S., Patel, A., Chalmers, J., de Galan, B. E., Li, Q., Billot, L., Woodward, M., Ninomiya, T., Neal, B., MacMahon, S., et al. (2010) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmoa1003795 · Cited by 1,471 · see citing works
Intensive glucose control and macrovascular outcomes in type 2 diabetes
Turnbull, F. M., Abraira, C., Anderson, R. J., Byington, R. P., Chalmers, J. P., Duckworth, W. C., Evans, G. W., Gerstein, H. C., Holman, R. R., Moritz, T. E., et al. (2009) · Diabetologia · doi:10.1007/s00125-009-1470-0 · Cited by 1,189 · see citing works
Self-citationBonds, D. E., Miller, M. E., Bergenstal, R. M., Buse, J. B., Byington, R. P., Cutler, J. A., Dudl, R. J., Ismail-Beigi, F., Kimel, A. R., Hoogwerf, B., et al. (2010) · BMJ · doi:10.1136/bmj.b4909 · Cited by 933 · cited 1× · see citing works
“less intensive glycaemic control suggested a decrease in major cardiovascular events in the intensive groups despite an increased number of severe hypoglycaemic episodes;(13,14) and third, a similar finding was reported in the Action to Control Cardiovascular Disease in Diabetes (ACCORD) trial, in which people allocat…”
Resultn–3 Fatty Acids and Cardiovascular Outcomes in Patients with Dysglycemia
The ORIGIN Trial Investigators (2012) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmoa1203859 · Cited by 929 · see citing works
Self-citationBodmer, M., Meier, C., Krähenbühl, S., Jick, S. S., & Meier, C. R. (2008) · Diabetes Care · doi:10.2337/dc08-1171 · Cited by 422 · see citing works
Association of Hypoglycemia and Cardiac Ischemia
Desouza, C., Salazar, H., Cheong, B., Murgo, J., & Fonseca, V. (2003) · Diabetes Care · doi:10.2337/diacare.26.5.1485 · Cited by 406 · see citing works
Hypoglycemia and cardiovascular risks
Frier, B. M., Schernthaner, G., & Heller, S. R. (2011) · Diabetes Care · doi:10.2337/dc11-s220 · Cited by 381 · see citing works
The ORIGIN Trial Investigators (2007) · American Heart Journal · doi:10.1016/j.ahj.2007.09.009 · Cited by 205 · see citing works
Self-citationSerious Cardiovascular Outcomes in Diabetes
Yakubovich, N., & Gerstein, H. C. (2011) · Circulation · doi:10.1161/circulationaha.110.948489 · Cited by 100 · see citing works
Self-citationMellbin, L., Malmberg, K., Waldenström, A. P., Wedel, H., Rydén, L., & for the DIGAMI 2 investigators (2008) · Heart · doi:10.1136/hrt.2008.152835 · Cited by 85 · see citing works
Self-citationRiveline, J., Danchin, N., Ledru, F., Varroud-Vial, M., & Charpentier, G. (2003) · Diabetes & Metabolism · doi:10.1016/s1262-3636(07)70030-7 · Cited by 70 · see citing works
Cardiac arrhythmias in hypoglycaemia.
Heller, S. R. (2002) · PubMed · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Collet, J.-P., Thiele, H., Barbato, E., Barthélémy, O., Bauersachs, J., Bhatt, D. L., Dendale, P., Dorobantu, M., Edvardsen, T., Folliguet, T., et al. (2021) · European Heart Journal · doi:10.1093/eurheartj/ehaa575 · Cited by 5,037 · see citing works
2023 ESC guidelines for the management of cardiovascular disease in patients with diabetes.
Marx, N., Federici, M., Schütt, K., Müller-Wieland, D., Ajjan, R. A., Antunes, M. J., Christodorescu, R. M., Crawford, C., Di Angelantonio, E., Eliasson, B., et al. (2023) · European Heart Journal · doi:10.1093/eurheartj/ehad192 · Cited by 1,642 · see citing works
Self-citationInternational Hypoglycaemia Study Group (2017) · Diabetes Care · doi:10.2337/dc16-2215 · Cited by 608 · see citing works
Amiel, S. A., Aschner, P., Childs, B., Cryer, P. E., de Galan, B. E., Frier, B. M., Gonder-Frederick, L., Heller, S. R., Jones, T., Khunti, K., et al. (2019) · The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology · doi:10.1016/s2213-8587(18)30315-2 · Cited by 526 · see citing works
Khunti, K., Davies, M., Majeed, A., Thorsted, B. L., Wolden, M. L., & Paul, S. K. (2015) · Diabetes Care · doi:10.2337/dc14-0920 · Cited by 356 · see citing works
Yun, J.-S., & Ko, S.-H. (2021) · Metabolism · doi:10.1016/j.metabol.2021.154838 · Cited by 292 · see citing works
Lee, A. K., Warren, B., Lee, C. J., McEvoy, J. W., Matsushita, K., Huang, E. S., Sharrett, A. R., Coresh, J., & Selvin, E. (2018) · Diabetes Care · doi:10.2337/dc17-1669 · Cited by 226 · see citing works
Cardiovascular outcome trials of glucose-lowering drugs or strategies in type 2 diabetes
Holman, R. R., Sourij, H., & Califf, R. M. (2014) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(14)60794-7 · Cited by 227 · see citing works
Haak, T., Hanaire, H., Ajjan, R., Hermanns, N., Riveline, J.-P., & Rayman, G. (2017) · Diabetes Therapy · doi:10.1007/s13300-017-0255-6 · Cited by 188 · see citing works
Bedenis, R., Price, A. H., Robertson, C. M., Morling, J. R., Frier, B. M., Strachan, M. W. J., & Price, J. F. (2014) · Diabetes Care · doi:10.2337/dc14-0908 · Cited by 87 · see citing works
Standl, E., Stevens, S. R., Armstrong, P. W., Buse, J. B., Chan, J. C. N., Green, J. B., Lachin, J. M., Scheen, A., Travert, F., Van de Werf, F., et al. (2018) · Diabetes Care · doi:10.2337/dc17-1778 · Cited by 76 · see citing works
The ORIGIN Trial Investigators (2015) · Diabetes Care · doi:10.2337/dc14-1329 · Cited by 75 · see citing works
Self-citationMattishent, K., & Loke, Y. K. (2021) · Frontiers in Endocrinology · doi:10.3389/fendo.2021.571568 · Cited by 69 · see citing works
Diabetes mellitus and risk of sudden cardiac death: a systematic review and meta-analysis
Zaccardi, F., Khan, H., & Laukkanen, J. A. (2014) · International Journal of Cardiology · doi:10.1016/j.ijcard.2014.08.105 · Cited by 69 · see citing works
Goto, A., Goto, M., Terauchi, Y., Yamaguchi, N., & Noda, M. (2016) · Journal of the American Heart Association · doi:10.1161/jaha.115.002875 · Cited by 67 · see citing works
Standl, E., Stevens, S. R., Lokhnygina, Y., Bethel, M. A., Buse, J. B., Gustavson, S. M., Maggioni, A. P., Mentz, R. J., Hernandez, A. F., & Holman, R. R. (2020) · Diabetes Care · doi:10.2337/dc19-1079 · Cited by 65 · see citing works
Chow, E., Bernjak, A., Walkinshaw, E., Lubina-Solomon, A., Freeman, J., Macdonald, I. A., Sheridan, P. J., & Heller, S. R. (2017) · Diabetes · doi:10.2337/db16-1310 · Cited by 63 · see citing works
A1C targets should be personalized to maximize benefits while limiting risks
Riddle, M. C., Gerstein, H. C., Holman, R. R., Inzucchi, S. E., Zinman, B., Zoungas, S., & Cefalu, W. T. (2018) · Diabetes Care · doi:10.2337/dci18-0018 · Cited by 54 · see citing works
Self-citationGorenek, B., Boriani, G., Dan, G.-A., Fauchier, L., Fenelon, G., Huang, H., Kudaiberdieva, G., Lip, G. Y. H., Mahajan, R., Potpara, T., et al. (2018) · EP Europace · doi:10.1093/europace/euy051 · Cited by 43 · see citing works
Fitchett, D., Inzucchi, S. E., Wanner, C., Mattheus, M., George, J. T., Vedin, O., Zinman, B., & Johansen, O. E. (2020) · European Heart Journal · doi:10.1093/eurheartj/ehz621 · Cited by 34 · see citing works
Muneer, M. (2020) · Advances in Experimental Medicine and Biology · doi:10.1007/5584_2020_534 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
Pratley, R. E., Husain, M., Lingvay, I., Pieber, T. R., Mark, T., Saevereid, H. A., Møller, D. V., Zinman, B., & the DEVOTE Study Group (2019) · Cardiovascular Diabetology · doi:10.1186/s12933-019-0960-8 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
Haas, A. V., Koefoed, A. W., Celli, J., Bonyhay, I., White, J., Meyer, K. M., Easly-Merski, R. M., Heydarpour, M., Adler, G. K., & Freeman, R. (2025) · The Journal of Clinical Endocrinology & Metabolism · doi:10.1210/clinem/dgae919
- Authors
- The ORIGIN Trial Investigators, Mellbin, L. G., Rydén, L., Riddle, M. C., Probstfield, J., Rosenstock, J., Díaz, R., Yusuf, S., & Gerstein, H. C.
- Affiliations
- Karolinska Institutet (SE)
- Karolinska University Hospital (SE)
- Oregon Health & Science University (US)
- University of Washington (US)
- The University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center (US)
- Estudios Clínicos Latinoamérica (AR)
- McMaster University (CA)
- ORCID
- Venue
- European Heart Journal
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2013-09-02
- Volume
- 34
- Issue
- 40
- Pages
- 3137-3144
- ISSN
- 0195-668X (ISSN-L)
- 1522-9645
- OpenAlex
- W2090816085
- Cited by
- 247
- References
- 17
- Citations by year
- 2026: 8 · 2025: 6 · 2024: 13 · 2023: 8 · 2022: 18 · 2021: 22 · 2020: 25 · 2019: 21 · 2018: 22 · 2017: 21 · 2016: 32 · 2015: 26 · 2014: 21 · 2013: 4
- FWCI
- 21.76
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- European Heart Journal (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- HighWire Press Open Archive (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Eli Lilly and Company
- Pfizer
- AstraZeneca
- Sanofi
- Intarcia Therapeutics
- MannKind Corporation
- Halozyme
- AFA Försäkring
- Hjärt-Lungfonden
- Novo Nordisk
- Daiichi Sankyo Europe
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes Management and Research
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes Treatment and Management
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes, Cardiovascular Risks, and Lipoproteins
- Keywords
- hypoglycemia, severe hypoglycemia, cardiovascular events, insulin glargine, basal insulin, glucose-lowering therapy, ORIGIN trial, dysglycemia, cardiovascular mortality, myocardial infarction, stroke, arrhythmic death, nocturnal hypoglycemia, high cardiovascular risk, hypoglycemia risk
- MeSH terms
- Insulin Glargine, Arrhythmias, Cardiac, Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2, Diabetic Angiopathies, Female, Glycated Hemoglobin, Humans, Hypoglycemia, Hypoglycemic Agents, Male, Middle Aged, Myocardial Infarction, Prognosis, Risk Factors, Stroke, Insulin, Long-Acting
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review