The DOI matches its Crossref record; 108 of the 108 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; 3 of the 53 sources its claims cite were checked for support.
Mortality and Morbidity Trends: Is There Compression of Morbidity?
Open accessAbstract
OBJECTIVE: This paper reviews trends in mortality and morbidity to evaluate whether there has been a compression of morbidity. METHODS: Review of recent research and analysis of recent data for the United States relating mortality change to the length of life without 1 of 4 major diseases or loss of mobility functioning. RESULTS: Mortality declines have slowed down in the United States in recent years, especially for women. The prevalence of disease has increased. Age-specific prevalence of a number of risk factors representing physiological status has stayed relatively constant; where risks decline, increased usage of effective drugs is responsible. Mobility functioning has deteriorated. Length of life with disease and mobility functioning loss has increased between 1998 and 2008. DISCUSSION: Empirical findings do not support recent compression of morbidity when morbidity is defined as major disease and mobility functioning loss.
Overview
AI snapshot
Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
This review and empirical analysis finds that recent U.S. mortality declines have slowed, disease prevalence has increased, and mobility functioning has deteriorated, so life with disease and functioning loss has expanded. The authors conclude that empirical findings do not support compression of morbidity when morbidity is defined as major disease and mobility functioning loss.
Key findings
- Mortality declines slowed in the United States, especially for women; U.S. life expectancy in 2006 was 78 years at birth and 18 years at age 65, compared with Japan’s 83 and 21 years.
- Disease prevalence increased: older men and women showed increased cancer prevalence, diabetes increased across much of the adult age range, and CVD conditions increased among older males.
- Mobility functioning loss increased across ages; for example, among those aged 80+, mobility disability rose from 27.68% to 41.74% for men and from 42.84% to 51.26% for women between 1998 and 2006.
- Life expectancy with disease and with mobility functioning loss increased between 1998 and 2006: at age 20, years with at least one disease rose from 10.0 to 12.3 for men and 11.1 to 13.0 for women; years unable to function rose from 3.8 to 5.8 for men and 7.3 to 9.8 for women.
Methods
- The paper reviews recent research on mortality and morbidity trends and analyzes recent U.S. data linking mortality change to length of life without one of four major diseases or loss of mobility functioning.
- Empirical analysis uses National Health Interview Survey data for the noninstitutionalized U.S. population aged 20 and older in 1998 and 2006, with self-reported coronary heart disease, myocardial infarction, stroke, cancer, and diabetes, plus an indicator of mobility functioning loss based on inability to perform at least one of four tasks.
- Official U.S. life tables for 1998 and 2006 are combined with prevalence data using the Sullivan approach to healthy life expectancy.
Limitations
- The authors state that empirical results could overstate recent increases in disease because it is impossible to hold constant greater awareness of health problems and improved diagnosis and screening.
- The authors note they did not consider depression and mental illness, which cause much disability and functioning loss, and they examined high-level functioning rather than severe disability.
- The text makes evident that the empirical analysis relies on cross-sectional prevalence and life-table methods, so it cannot directly distinguish incidence from longer survival with disease; the abstract refers to 1998–2008 while the empirical tables use 1998 and 2006.
Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.
Integrity signals
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Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
25 Own interpretation · 20 Not checked yet · 16 Own result · 8 No full text of the sources · 6 Sources not found · 6 No basis given · 3 Own method · 1 Supported · 1 Partly supported · 1 Not supported · accuracy not yet measured
At least one cited source doesn’t support this claim or points to a different paper, and none confirmed it — see the verdicts below.
In the paper
“The Framingham Heart Study also shows that when methods of diagnosis are taken into account incidence rates for a first MI remained relatively stable between 1960–1969 and 1990–1999 (Parikh et al., 2009); however, trends differ by gender.”
What the sources say
- Disputedcites Parikh et al., 2009 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Discussion (Temporal Trends in AMI; page unavailable) says that ECG-diagnosed first MI—a measure not influenced by increasingly sensitive biomarkers—declined by about 50% from 1960 to 1999, rather than remaining stable. It also says overall incidence appeared to decrease particularly in men, while rates in women were steady to decreased. The paper treats stable rates as a feature of some earlier estimates, not its finding after accounting for diagnostic methods. (LLM, conf=0.86)
Checked by a reasoning model — may be wrong.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Disputed
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Table 3 shows the percentage of people with mobility difficulty increased markedly across the age range in this eight-year period.”
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The prevalence of disease has increased.”
- Also stated in: § Abstract · plain
“There is no hint of a declining prevalence of disease over these eight years.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Also stated in: § Abstract · plain
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Men also gained more life expectancy at age 65 than women (1.0 vs. 0.5 years).”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Mortality declines have slowed down in the United States in recent years, especially for women.”
- Also stated in: § Abstract · plain
“Mortality decline in the United States over the 1998–2006 period has been relatively slow, particularly for women.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Also stated in: § Abstract · plain
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Diabetes increases are seen through much of the adult age range.”
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Length of life with disease and mobility functioning loss has increased between 1998 and 2008.”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Older men and women show an increased prevalence of cancer.”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“There is no hint of a declining prevalence of disease over these eight years.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Mobility functioning has deteriorated.”
- Also stated in: § Abstract · plain
“Table 3 shows the percentage of people with mobility difficulty increased markedly across the age range in this eight-year period.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Also stated in: § Abstract · plain
- It may state two separate claims as one. 34
- Probably not a substantial claim. 9
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“Mortality rates from CVD experienced a remarkable decline between 1970 and 2000 accounting for about 60% of the increase in life expectancy at birth during this period (Beltrán-Sánchez, Preston, & Canudas-Romo, 2008).”
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites Beltrán-Sánchez, Preston, & Canudas-Romo, 2008 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
Section 5.1.1 reports a 6.26-year increase in U.S. life expectancy at birth from 1970 to 2000 and says heart disease contributed the majority of the gain for most race–sex groups. Section 5.2 attributes 2.87 years to declines in heart disease. The passages support a major contribution from declining cardiovascular mortality, but do not establish the claimed approximately 60% share for CVD overall. (LLM, conf=0.82)
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Partly supported
Every source the paper cites for this claim was checked and supports it.
In the paper
“Although we have examined the increased prevalence in a number of individual diseases, we should note that the proportion of the population with multiple diseases and the number of diseases comorbid in an older individual has also increased (Crimmins & Saito, 2000).”
What the sources say
- Supportedcites Crimmins & Saito, 2000 source
Section 4.3 (Co-morbidity; page not provided) reports that older men and women averaged 0.3 more reported diseases in 1994 than in 1984, and that the number reporting three or more diseases increased. Section 5 (Summary and Discussion; page not provided) likewise states that the number of diseases comorbid within individuals increased. (LLM, conf=0.94)
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Supported
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“At each age over the eight years, there is an increase in the life expectancy with disease and a decrease in the years without disease.”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The same is true for functioning loss, an increase in expected years unable to function and a decrease in years able to function.”
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For the curves representing both survivors without functioning problems and survivors without disease, later curves have shifted inward or leftward, indicating less survival without diseases and functioning loss.”
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The most striking change over the ten-year period is the increase in all the CVD conditions among older males; for females, the increase among the oldest group only occurs in the prevalence of stroke.”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Figure 1 shows the increase in overall survival from 1998 to 2006 as a move outward of the survival curve, indicating more survival time.”
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“These large increases in functioning loss have not been previously reported across the age range, although Martin and colleagues (2009) reported recent increases in difficulty performing these functions for 50- to 64-year-olds.”
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Martin and colleagues (2009)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“At age 20, life expectancy for men increased by 1.1 years from 55.0 to 56.1 years; for women, the increase was only 0.7 years from 60.3 to 61.0 years (Table 4).”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Decrease in mortality after 1990 resulted from both decrease in incidence and increase in survival (Coleman et al., 2008).”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Coleman et al., 2008 source
Checked before — its earlier verdict is held back until a new check runs.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not checked yet
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Several studies have reported significant decreases after the 1980s in the onset of disability or reductions in the transition from less severe to more severe disability (Cai & Lubitz, 2007; Crimmins, Hayward, Hagedorn, Saito, & Brouard, 2009; Crimmins, Saito, & Reynolds, 1997; Manton, Corder, & Stallard, 1993; Wolf, Mendes de Leon, & Glass, 2007).”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Cai & Lubitz, 2007 source
- Not checked yetcites Crimmins, Hayward, Hagedorn, Saito, & Brouard, 2009 source
Checked before — its earlier verdict is held back until a new check runs.
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Crimmins, Saito, & Reynolds, 1997 source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim could be matched to a paper in Crossref, so there is nothing to check it against.
In the paper
“It is clear that cancer survival has increased, but this has not resulted from major changes in cancer incidence, with the exception of lung cancer (Garcia, 2010; Preston & Ho, 2010).”
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Garcia, 2010
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not matchedcites Preston & Ho, 2010
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
In the paper
“Crimmins Hayward, and Saito (1994) report fairly similar results comparing the 1984 and 1994 cohorts of the Longitudinal Studies of Aging.”
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Crimmins Hayward, and Saito (1994)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Not matched
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“The most promising trends for older persons have been in the reduction of high cholesterol and, more recently, a reduction in hypertension (Crimmins et al., 2005; Crimmins et al., 2010b).”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Crimmins et al., 2005 source
- Not matchedcites Crimmins et al., 2010b
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Most other analyses of changes in healthy life for the United States have examined change in life expectancy with and without disability rather than disease or functioning loss.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
In the paper
“The most adverse change in physiological status in recent years is the marked increase in obesity, which has occurred across the adult age range (Ogden et al., 2006).”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Ogden et al., 2006 source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Stroke incidence does not appear to have changed consistently over the period, whereas mortality was declining.”
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“For instance, in the 1980s, increased life expectancy in the United States was concentrated in years without disability, although this followed a decade when this was not true (Crimmins, Saito, & Ingegneri, 1997).”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Crimmins, Saito, & Ingegneri, 1997 source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Age-adjusted death rates from diabetes declined from 1970 to the mid-1980s but increased substantially (about 47%) from 1987 to 2002 (Jemal, Ward, et al., 2005).”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Jemal, Ward, et al., 2005 source
Checked before — its earlier verdict is held back until a new check runs.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not checked yet
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“As indicated previously, data on changes in incidence of disability and functioning problems are scarce and generally limited to the older population.”
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Thus, the evidence indicates increased survival among men who have a stroke with some decrease in the likelihood of having a stroke for both men and women.”
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Cai and Lubitz (2007) using data from the Medicare Beneficiary Survey found increases in the length of nondisabled or active life and decreases in the length of life with disability between 1992 and 2002.”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Cai and Lubitz (2007) source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“The evidence from the same studies on trends in recovery rates from disability is conflicting, although both Cai and Lubitz (2007) and Crimmins and colleagues (2009) report increased recovery in recent years in national samples of older Americans.”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Cai & Lubitz, 2007 source
- Not matchedcites Crimmins and colleagues (2009)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“They find increases in the length of disability-free life and no change in the length of disabled life resulting from the decreases in the rates of disability onset and increases in rates of disability recovery.”
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Crimmins Hayward, and Saito (1994)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
In the paper
“On the other hand, the evidence is that one marker of inflammation, C-reactive protein (CRP), and one marker of glucose regulation, glycosylated hemoglobin, have stayed roughly the same over the entire period from the late 1980s to about 2005 for persons aged 65 years and older (Crimmins et al., 2010b).”
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Crimmins et al., 2010b
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Thus, the evidence indicates increased survival among those who have heart attacks; however, it is not until recently that there has been a decrease in the likelihood of actually having a heart attack by a given age.”
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The decline in disabled life is evidence of some compression of morbidity; however, they also found no change in age of disability onset, an inconsistency with compression of morbidity (but consistent with dynamic equilibrium).”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“One of the explanations for the decrease in disability has been that diseases have become less disabling as their progression has been halted before disability. This is true of both heart disease and arthritis, two of the most common causes of disability (Crimmins & Saito, 2000; Freedman et al., 2007).”
What the sources say
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Both of these changes are due primarily to increased use and efficacy of prescription drugs not to reduction in the proportion of persons ever diagnosed with the condition.”
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We have purposefully examined an indicator of functioning ability that represents fairly robust functioning and that is not likely to be significantly affected by environmental or social changes.”
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Our results are quite different from other analyses of changes in healthy life because our definition of healthy life differs.”
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The increasing prevalence of disease may to some extent reflect better diagnostics, but there is little indication of less disease.”
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Heart disease, stroke, diabetes, arthritis and musculoskeletal problems, cognitive loss, and obesity are major causes of functioning problems and disability; however, much disability and functioning loss is caused by depression and mental illness, which we have not considered here (Crimmins & Saito, 2000; Ettinger et al., 1994; Jagger et al., 2007; Martin et al., 2009).”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Crimmins & Saito, 2000 source
Checked before — its earlier verdict is held back until a new check runs.
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Ettinger et al., 1994 source
- Not checked yetcites Jagger et al., 2007 source
Checked before — its earlier verdict is held back until a new check runs.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not checked yet
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Heart disease, stroke, diabetes, arthritis and musculoskeletal problems, cognitive loss, and obesity are major causes of functioning problems and disability; however, much disability and functioning loss is caused by depression and mental illness, which we have not considered here (Crimmins & Saito, 2000; Ettinger et al., 1994; Jagger et al., 2007; Martin et al., 2009).”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Crimmins & Saito, 2000 source
Checked before — its earlier verdict is held back until a new check runs.
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Ettinger et al., 1994 source
- Not checked yetcites Jagger et al., 2007 source
Checked before — its earlier verdict is held back until a new check runs.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not checked yet
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Some of the increases in both the prevalence of conditions, like heart disease, and the incidence of conditions, like cancer, may result from greater awareness among people of health problems and improved methods of diagnosis and screening.”
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The change in mobility functioning loss that we examined should reflect changes within individuals rather than in the environment.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
In the paper
“For instance, the declines in disability characterized as instrumental activities of daily living disability, which may be more affected by the environment in which people live have been more pervasive and have occurred earlier than disability termed activities of daily living disability, which would be less environmentally affected (Freedman et al., 2004).”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Freedman et al., 2004 source
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Even if the length of disabled life stays roughly the same but the length of life needing treatment for disease increases, lifetime health costs will increase unless the cost of health care is reduced.”
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For instance, lung cancer is primarily declining because people have reduced smoking, whereas breast, prostate, and colon cancer mortality is reduced because of increased screening, early diagnosis, and new treatments regimens.”
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For instance, lung cancer is primarily declining because people have reduced smoking, whereas breast, prostate, and colon cancer mortality is reduced because of increased screening, early diagnosis, and new treatments regimens.”
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The authors state this as an assumption.
Increasing prevalence and incidence of diabetes is related to the growing problem of obesity.
“Increasing prevalence and incidence of diabetes is assumed to be related to the growing problem of obesity, and it is projected to continue to increase (Honeycutt et al., 2003).”
The paper relies on this without support.
Self-reports of diagnosed disease in the National Health Interview Survey validly measure trends in disease prevalence.
“Self-reports of whether a person has been diagnosed with coronary heart disease, myocardial infarction, stroke, cancer, and diabetes are contained in the National Health Interview Survey.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Each generation will be healthier and longer lived than the prior one.
“We have always assumed that each generation will be healthier and longer lived than the prior one.”
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Rated minor: it would not touch a result — a value no result rests on, a p-value that stays on the same side of the significance level, or a conflict that is clerical, resolved elsewhere in the paper, or outside its own findings.
In the paper
§ Abstract
“The most striking change over the ten-year period is the increase in all the CVD conditions among older males”
§ Abstract
“There is no hint of a declining prevalence of disease over these eight years.”
Rated minor: it would not touch a result — a value no result rests on, a p-value that stays on the same side of the significance level, or a conflict that is clerical, resolved elsewhere in the paper, or outside its own findings.
In the paper
§ Abstract
“Length of life with disease and mobility functioning loss has increased between 1998 and 2008.”
§ Abstract
“Life Expectancy, Life Expectancy With and Without Cardiovascular Disease, Cancer, or Diabetes, Life Expectancy With and Without Mobility Functioning Ability, 1998–2006 (years)”
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Sorted by citations
Items 601–694 of 694
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Strandberg, T. E., Strandberg, A. Y., Pitkälä, K. H., & Mika Kivimaki, B. (2026) · European Journal of Preventive Cardiology · doi:10.1093/eurjpc/zwag429
Healthcare financing and healthy longevity in OECD countries
Ünlü, U., Avşarlıgil, N., Dörtyol, İ. T., Özekicioğlu, H., & Topuz, H. (2026) · Discover Public Health · doi:10.1186/s12982-026-02689-1
Volkert, A. M. (2026) · Kölner Universitäts PublikationsServer (Universität zu Köln)
Foigt, N. A. (2026) · Problems of ageing and longevity (Ukraine) · doi:10.71012/pro-ageing-2026-3-01
Passarelli-Araújo, H., Siviero, P. C. L., Souza, L. G., & Machado, C. J. (2026) · Revista Latinoamericana de Población · doi:10.31406/relap2026.v20.e202563
Klamm, M. M., Yan, Y., Duck, A., Sung, J. H., Gabriel, K. P., Schrack, J. A., Stosor, V., Detels, R., Patel, S. R., Fischl, M. A., et al. (2026) · Journal of Public Health · doi:10.1007/s10389-026-02892-z
Metadata
- Authors
- Crimmins, E. M., & Beltran-Sanchez, H.
- Affiliations
- University of Southern California (US)
- Venue
- The Journals of Gerontology Series B: Psychological Sciences and Social Sciences
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2010-12-06
- Volume
- 66B
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 75-86
- ISSN
- 1079-5014 (ISSN-L)
- 1758-5368
- PMC
- PMC3001754
- OpenAlex
- W2125858619
- Semantic Scholar
- a980ec583ae85b6582ff40d214ee5b64b91497a2
- Cited by
- 694
- References
- 107
- Citations by year
- 2026: 28 · 2025: 43 · 2024: 39 · 2023: 35 · 2022: 55 · 2021: 51 · 2020: 42 · 2019: 63 · 2018: 53 · 2017: 50 · 2016: 62 · 2015: 54 · 2014: 37 · 2013: 31 · 2012: 24
- FWCI
- 5.45
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- The Journals of Gerontology Series B (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
- HighWire Press Open Archive (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Agence Nationale pour le Développement de la Recherche Universitaire
- National Institute on Aging (P30AG017265, T32AG000037)
- Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (T32HD007242)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Demography › Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Aging, Health, and Disability
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Chronic Disease Management Strategies
- Keywords
- compression of morbidity, mortality trends, morbidity trends, disease prevalence, mortality decline, female mortality, physiological risk factors, drug use, aging
- MeSH terms
- Cardiovascular Diseases, Female, Persons with Disabilities, Humans, Life Expectancy, Male, Morbidity, Mortality, Neoplasms, United States, Incidence, Prevalence, Survival Rate, Sex Distribution
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
A language model drew the claims from the paper on 2026-11-10, under version 3 of the claim definition (model deepseek-v4.1-flash, prompt extract-v3).
A second model labelled each claim on 2026-11-10 (model jev-1.13-20260917, definition revision gold-guideline-v0.2).
Cited sources are checked with a language model’s help (gpt-6-sol).
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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