Profiling risk: the emergence of coronary heart disease epidemiology in the United States (1947–70)
Abstract
This historical study examines the development of coronary heart disease (CHD) research and its role in the evolution of post-1945 chronic disease epidemiology in the United States. To give the examination greater salience, it compares the pathway represented by CHD epidemiology with that of lung cancer. Historians have paid less attention to the differences between the two, which later merged into what we now call 'risk factor epidemiology'. This study assesses why CHD epidemiology in the post-war period almost uniformly began with cohort studies and primarily stressed clinical variables as putative aetiological factors. It describes how CHD epidemiologists sought to justify the creation of a non-infectious chronic disease epidemiology, a position reinforced by the relative swiftness with which they obtained important results. It also follows the emergence of 'risk factor thinking' within CHD epidemiology. CHD epidemiology critically differed from its lung cancer counterpart in that it identified multiple factors of risk, each producing relatively small effects, rather than a single factor producing a strong and evident outcome. Consequently, it was difficult for CHD epidemiologists to demonstrate causality and to confirm scientifically that reducing risk factors would lower CHD rates. This had significant consequences for primary prevention and public health policy.
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The first major Framingham findings, published in 1957, defined hypertension as systolic blood pressure at least 160/95 mm Hg and found nearly a fourfold higher coronary heart disease incidence per 1000 persons among hypertensive participants.
“The first major study findings were published in 1957, almost a decade after the initial participant was examined. Defining hypertension as a systolic blood pressure ≥160/95 mmHg, they found a nearly 4 fold increase in coronary heart disease incidence per 1000 persons among hypertensive participants.26”
From The Framingham Heart Study and the epidemiology of cardiovascular disease: a historical perspective (2014) · cites this paper as [26]
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The Framingham Heart Study and the epidemiology of cardiovascular disease: a historical perspective
Mahmood, S. S., Levy, D., Vasan, R. S., & Wang, T. J. (2014) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(13)61752-3 · Cited by 1,622 · see citing works
- Authors
- Oppenheimer, G. M.
- Affiliations
- City University of New York (US)
- Corresponding author
- Oppenheimer, Gerald M
- Venue
- International Journal of Epidemiology
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2006-02-15
- Volume
- 35
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 720-730
- ISSN
- 0300-5771 (ISSN-L)
- 1464-3685
- OpenAlex
- W2142549602
- Cited by
- 62
- References
- 109
- Citations by year
- 2025: 1 · 2022: 5 · 2021: 2 · 2020: 2 · 2019: 7 · 2018: 4 · 2017: 3 · 2016: 2 · 2015: 4 · 2014: 4 · 2013: 3 · 2012: 13
- FWCI
- 9.26
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- International Journal of Epidemiology (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institutes of Health (5g13lm007932-02)
- U.S. National Library of Medicine (1G13LM07932-01)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Historical and modern epidemiology studies
- Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › History and Philosophy of Science › History of Science and Medicine
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Healthcare Systems and Public Health
- Keywords
- history of epidemiology, risk factor epidemiology, cohort studies, chronic disease epidemiology, lung cancer epidemiology, causal inference, primary prevention, public health policy, postwar United States
- MeSH terms
- Chronic Disease, Coronary Disease, Humans, Lung Neoplasms, Public Health, Risk Factors, United States, Cohort Studies, Uncertainty, History, 20th Century
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