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Cited by 167Smoking Behavior and CessationGlobal Cancer Incidence and ScreeningLung Cancer Diagnosis and Treatment

Recent Trends in Lung Cancer Mortality in the United States

Jemal, A., Chu, K. C., Tarone, R. E.·2001·JNCI Journal of the National Cancer Institute
DOI 10.1093/jnci/93.4.277
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Abstract

BACKGROUND: Previous age-period-cohort analyses of lung cancer incidence and mortality rates in the United States have demonstrated a decrease in risk by birth cohort through 1950, consistent with declining trends in smoking prevalence. This study was conducted to examine recent lung cancer trends, including trends among the cohorts born after 1950. METHODS: Lung cancer mortality rates from 1970 through 1997 for whites aged 24--83 years and for blacks aged 30--83 years were investigated. Using age--period--cohort analyses with 2-year age and 2-year calendar-period intervals, we examined changes in the slope of the trends in birth-cohort and calendar-period effects. All statistical tests are two-sided. RESULTS: There was an unexpected, statistically significant moderation in the rate of decrease of the birth-cohort trend in lung cancer mortality for whites born after 1950, with a corresponding smaller and statistically nonsignificant moderation for blacks. These data are consistent with smoking initiation rates: Rates of both cigarette and marijuana smoking initiation increased for children aged 12--17 years from 1965 through 1977. There was a statistically significant decrease in the slope of the calendar-period trend for lung cancer mortality in 1990 for both whites and blacks that was observed primarily in people 55 years of age and older. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: The birth-cohort pattern of lung cancer mortality after 1950 appears to reflect the early impact of teenage cigarette smoking on lung cancer risk in people under the age of 45 years, although a contribution from marijuana smoking cannot be ruled out. This result provides additional support for increasing smoking cessation and prevention programs for teenagers. The calendar-period decrease in lung cancer mortality after 1990 may reflect the long-term benefits of reductions in tobacco carcinogens in cigarettes and increases in smoking cessation beginning around 1960.

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  • The finding of sharply worse lung cancer mortality below age 60 in the 1950 to 1959 cohort relative to earlier cohorts is consistent with the explanation that early cigarette smoking contributed to higher early cancer in these cohorts.

    “Our finding of sharply worse lung cancer mortality below age 60 in this cohort relative to earlier cohorts is consistent with this explanation.”

    From Insights into US life expectancy stagnation from birth cohort mortality dynamics (2026) · cites this paper as [33]

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Authors
Jemal, A., Chu, K. C., & Tarone, R. E.
Affiliations
National Institutes of Health (US)
Corresponding author
Jemal, A.
ORCID
Venue
JNCI Journal of the National Cancer Institute
Publisher
Oxford University Press (OUP)
Published
2001-02-21
Volume
93
Issue
4
Pages
277-283
ISSN
  • 0027-8874 (ISSN-L)
  • 1460-2105
DOI
10.1093/jnci/93.4.277
OpenAlex
W1970246008
Cited by
167
References
35
Citations by year
2026: 2 · 2024: 2 · 2023: 5 · 2022: 3 · 2021: 3 · 2020: 1 · 2019: 1 · 2018: 2 · 2017: 2 · 2016: 11 · 2015: 2 · 2014: 1 · 2013: 7 · 2012: 9
FWCI
6.78
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed
Locations
  • JNCI Journal of the National Cancer Institute (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
Topics
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Physiology › Smoking Behavior and Cessation
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Oncology › Global Cancer Incidence and Screening
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Pulmonary and Respiratory Medicine › Lung Cancer Diagnosis and Treatment
Keywords
lung cancer mortality, birth cohort effects, age-period-cohort analysis, smoking initiation, adolescent smoking, cannabis smoking, racial differences, smoking cessation, tobacco regulation, tobacco carcinogens, smoking prevalence decline
MeSH terms
Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Black or African American, Female, Humans, Lung Neoplasms, Male, Marijuana Smoking, Middle Aged, Mortality, Risk, Smoking, United States, Cohort Studies, Prevalence, Sex Distribution, White People

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