The epidemiology and iatrogenic transmission of hepatitis C virus in Egypt: A Bayesian coalescent approach.
Open accessAbstract
Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a leading cause of liver cancer and cirrhosis, and Egypt has possibly the highest HCV prevalence worldwide. In this article we use a newly developed Bayesian inference framework to estimate the transmission dynamics of HCV in Egypt from sampled viral gene sequences, and to predict the public health impact of the virus. Our results indicate that the effective number of HCV infections in Egypt underwent rapid exponential growth between 1930 and 1955. The timing and speed of this spread provides quantitative genetic evidence that the Egyptian HCV epidemic was initiated and propagated by extensive antischistosomiasis injection campaigns. Although our results show that HCV transmission has since decreased, we conclude that HCV is likely to remain prevalent in Egypt for several decades. Our combined population genetic and epidemiological analysis provides detailed estimates of historical changes in Egyptian HCV prevalence. Because our results are consistent with a demographic scenario specified a priori, they also provide an objective test of inference methods based on the coalescent process.
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It is also straightforward to sample the rate from a parametric distribution obtained from a previous (independent) analysis.
“It is also straightforward to sample the rate from a parametric distribution obtained from a previous (independent) analysis [ 68, 69].”
From Relaxed Phylogenetics and Dating with Confidence (2006) · cites this paper as [69]
The Mutational Model section says the authors used a mutation-rate estimate from a previous analysis, but fixed the mean rate at that value. It does not describe sampling the rate from a parametric distribution obtained from that analysis. Our copy does not provide a page number for this passage. (LLM, conf=0.86)
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- Authors
- Pybus, O. G.
- Affiliations
- University of Oxford (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Pybus, O. G.
- ORCID
- Pybus, O. G.
- Venue
- Molecular Biology and Evolution
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2003-03-01
- Volume
- 20
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 381-387
- ISSN
- 0737-4038 (ISSN-L)
- 1537-1719
- OpenAlex
- W2028850957
- Cited by
- 246
- References
- 35
- Citations by year
- 2025: 3 · 2024: 2 · 2023: 3 · 2022: 3 · 2021: 8 · 2020: 10 · 2019: 4 · 2018: 12 · 2017: 13 · 2016: 10 · 2015: 16 · 2014: 14 · 2013: 18 · 2012: 13
- FWCI
- 9.34
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Molecular Biology and Evolution (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- Wellcome Trust
- Royal Society
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Hepatology › Hepatitis C virus research
- Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Genetics › Evolution and Genetic Dynamics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Hepatology › Hepatitis Viruses Studies and Epidemiology
- Keywords
- hepatitis C virus, iatrogenic transmission, Bayesian coalescent, HCV prevalence, Egypt, population genetics, viral gene sequences, public health impact
- MeSH terms
- Bayes Theorem, Demography, Egypt, Hepatitis C, Humans, Iatrogenic Disease, Models, Genetic, Prevalence, Hepacivirus, Mutagenesis
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