Modeling Complexity of EMA Data: Time-Varying Lagged Effects of Negative Affect on Smoking Urges for Subgroups of Nicotine Addiction
Open accessAbstract
INTRODUCTION: Ecological momentary assessments (EMA) are increasingly used in studies of smoking behavior. Through EMA, examination of lagged relationships is particularly useful for establishing a temporal order of events and for identifying types and timing of risk factors. The time-varying effect model (TVEM) handles EMA data challenges and addresses unique questions about the time-varying effects. METHODS: Generalized TVEM was applied to EMA data from a smoking cessation study to investigate a "time-varying lagged" effect of negative affect on high smoking urges. Participants included 224 smokers with a smoking history of 23.1 years (SD = 9.8) smoking 27.3 cigarettes per day (SD = 10.7), which provided 11,394 EMAs following a quit attempt and prior to a smoking lapse. RESULTS: The effect of negative affect was found to vary as a function of a time lag, with stronger immediate effects: estimated odds ratio (OR) of 2.7 for the lower nicotine-dependence group (time to first morning cigarette > 5 min, 57.6%) and OR of 2.4 for the higher nicotine-dependence group (≤ 5 min). The magnitude of the effect persisted up to 7 hr while decreasing over time. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis confirmed the importance of negative affect as a precursor of smoking urges while showing that the magnitude of the effect varies over time. An assumption of a constant lagged effect may bias estimates of the relationships and fail to provide a comprehensive outlook of the relational dynamics.
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Negative affect is highly predictive of cigarette craving in both the laboratory and natural environment.
“For example, in both the laboratory and natural environment, NA is highly predictive of cigarette craving (Dunbar, Scharf, Kirchner, & Shiffman, 2010; Heckman et al., 2013; Shiyko, Naab, Shiffman, & Li, 2014).”
From Modeling naturalistic craving, withdrawal, and affect during early nicotine abstinence: A pilot ecological momentary assessment study. (2015) · cites this paper as Shiyko, Naab, Shiffman, & Li, 2014
The Empirical Data and TVEM Results sections report momentary assessments during abstinence and a strong association between negative affect and later smoking urges, supporting the natural-environment portion of the claim. The paper does not report a laboratory finding, so it does not support the claim about both settings. (LLM, conf=0.87)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredEMA studies have typically employed either multilevel modeling to examine within-person associations at a defined moment or time-varying effect models to understand the pattern of within-person association over time; however, such techniques cannot examine whether the rates of change or trajectories of craving, withdrawal, negative affect, and positive affect are associated over the course of abst
“Furthermore, EMA studies have typically employed either a multilevel modeling (MLM) framework to examine within-person associations between variables at a defined moment in time or, more recently, time-varying effect models to understand the pattern of within-person association between variables over time (e.g. Shiyko, Lanza, Tan, Li, & Shiffman, 2012; Shiyko et al., 2014). However, using such EMA”
From Modeling naturalistic craving, withdrawal, and affect during early nicotine abstinence: A pilot ecological momentary assessment study. (2015) · cites this paper as Shiyko et al., 2014
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- Authors
- Shiyko, M., Naab, P., Shiffman, S., & Li, R.
- Affiliations
- Northeastern University (US)
- University of Pittsburgh (US)
- Pennsylvania State University (US)
- Venue
- Nicotine & Tobacco Research
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2013-08-03
- Volume
- 16
- Issue
- Suppl 2
- Pages
- S144-S150
- ISSN
- 1462-2203 (ISSN-L)
- 1469-994X
- PMC
- PMC3977630
- OpenAlex
- W2054448828
- Cited by
- 43
- References
- 34
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 2 · 2024: 1 · 2023: 6 · 2022: 6 · 2021: 5 · 2020: 6 · 2019: 3 · 2018: 2 · 2017: 1 · 2016: 4 · 2015: 5 · 2013: 1
- FWCI
- 2.32
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Nicotine & Tobacco Research (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- HighWire Press Open Archive (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institute of Mental Health (R01MH096711)
- National Institute on Drug Abuse (DA033303, DA020742, DA006080, R01DA033303, R01DA020742, P50DA010075)
- National Cancer Institute (R03CA171809, R01CA168676)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Physiology › Smoking Behavior and Cessation
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Experimental and Cognitive Psychology › Mental Health Research Topics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods and Bayesian Inference
- Keywords
- ecological momentary assessment, negative affect, smoking urges, nicotine dependence, smoking cessation, smoking lapse
- MeSH terms
- Adult, Affect, Female, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Psychopharmacology, Risk Factors, Smoking, Time Factors, Tobacco Use Disorder, Models, Statistical, Smoking Cessation
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