When Genius Errs: R. A. Fisher and the Lung Cancer Controversy
Abstract
R.A. Fisher's work on lung cancer and smoking is critically reviewed. The controversy is placed in the context of his career and personality. Although Fisher made invaluable contributions to the field of statistics, his analysis of the causal association between lung cancer and smoking was flawed by an unwillingness to examine the entire body of data available and prematurely drawn conclusions. His views may also have been influenced by personal and professional conflicts, by his work as a consultant to the tobacco industry, and by the fact that he was himself a smoker.
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Ignoring these causal signals can also be harmful, as illustrated by Ronald Fisher's scepticism about the smoking-cancer link.
“ignoring these causal signals can also be harmful, as illustrated by Ronald Fisher's scepticism about the smoking-cancer link, which was rooted in the observational nature of the evidence 78,79”
From Quantifying the prevalence and impact of overreaching causal claims in social science (2026) · cites this paper as [78]
Cites
Statistical Methods for Research Workers
Fisher, R. A. (1945) · American Journal of Clinical Pathology · doi:10.1093/ajcp/15.11.552b · Cited by 10,883 · see citing works
Fisher, R. A. (1936) · BMJ · doi:10.1136/bmj.1.3923.554-a · Cited by 4,980 · see citing works
In the Name of Eugenics: Genetics and the Uses of Human Heredity
Rosenberg, C. E., & Kevles, D. J. (1986) · Journal of American History · doi:10.2307/1903699 · Cited by 1,071 · see citing works
R. A. Fisher, the Life of a Scientist
Box, J. F. (1978) · Medical Entomology and Zoology · Cited by 173 · see citing works
Fisher, R. A. (1958) · Nature · doi:10.1038/182596a0 · Cited by 163 · see citing works
Fisher, R. A. (1958) · Nature · doi:10.1038/182108a0 · Cited by 149 · see citing works
Reid, C. (1982) · Cited by 79 · see citing works
Smoking and Mortality: A 21-Year Follow-Up Based on the Swedish Twin Registry
Floderus, B., Cederlöf, R., & Friberg, L. T. (1988) · International Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1093/ije/17.2.332 · Cited by 57 · see citing works
Smoking: The Cancer Controversy. Some Attempts to Assess the Evidence.
Spicer, C. C., & Fisher, R. A. (1959) · Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A (General) · doi:10.2307/2343092 · Cited by 39 · see citing works
Vandenbroucke, J. P., & Comstock, G. W. (1989) · American Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a115320 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
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The genetics of tobacco use: methods, findings and policy implications
Hall, W., Madden, P., & Lynskey, M. (2002) · Tobacco Control · doi:10.1136/tc.11.2.119 · Cited by 103 · see citing works
Quantifying the prevalence and impact of overreaching causal claims in social science
Isch, C., Dörr, T., Fasching, N., Jennings, G., & Watts, D. J. (2026) · Nature Human Behaviour · doi:10.1038/s41562-026-02553-x
- Authors
- Stolley, P. D.
- Affiliations
- University of Pennsylvania (US)
- Corresponding author
- Stolley, Paul D.
- Venue
- American Journal of Epidemiology
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 1991-03-01
- Volume
- 133
- Issue
- 5
- Pages
- 416-425
- ISSN
- 0002-9262 (ISSN-L)
- 1476-6256
- OpenAlex
- W2295455460
- Cited by
- 119
- References
- 11
- Citations by year
- 2026: 39 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 2 · 2022: 1 · 2021: 6 · 2020: 6 · 2019: 6 · 2018: 4 · 2017: 4 · 2016: 6 · 2015: 2 · 2014: 3 · 2013: 2 · 2012: 2
- FWCI
- 2.49
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- American Journal of Epidemiology (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › History and Philosophy of Science › History of Science and Medicine
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Historical and modern epidemiology studies
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Physiology › Smoking Behavior and Cessation
- Keywords
- R. A. Fisher, lung cancer, smoking, causal relationship, tobacco industry, statistical methodology, history of statistics, scientific controversy
- MeSH terms
- England, Epidemiologic Methods, Humans, Lung Neoplasms, Smoking, Statistics as Topic, History, 20th Century
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