The DOI matches its Crossref record; 1 of the 1 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Identifying Government Spending Shocks: It's all in the Timing*
Abstract
Standard vector autoregression (VAR) identification methods find that government spending raises consumption and real wages; the Ramey–Shapiro narrative approach finds the opposite. I show that a key difference in the approaches is the timing. Both professional forecasts and the narrative approach shocks Granger-cause the VAR shocks, implying that these shocks are missing the timing of the news. Motivated by the importance of measuring anticipations, I use a narrative method to construct richer government spending news variables from 1939 to 2008. The implied government spending multipliers range from 0.6 to 1.2.
Overview
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Citations
Cites
Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments
Staiger, D., & Stock, J. (1994) · doi:10.3386/t0151 · Cited by 5,302 · cited 1×
“As Staiger and Stock (1997) discuss, a first-stage F-statistic below 10 could be an indicator of a weak instrument problem.”
Cited by
The Dynamic Effects of Personal and Corporate Income Tax Changes in the United States
Mertens, K., & Ravn, M. O. (2013) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.103.4.1212 · Cited by 1,019
Fiscal Volatility Shocks and Economic Activity
Fernández-Villaverde, J., Guerrón-Quintana, P., Kuester, K., & Rubio-Ramírez, J. (2015) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.20121236 · Cited by 938
Macroeconomic Effects From Government Purchases and Taxes *
Barro, R. J., & Redlick, C. J. (2011) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.1093/qje/qjq002 · Cited by 837
Estimating Local Fiscal Multipliers
Suárez Serrato, J. C., & Wingender, P. (2016) · doi:10.3386/w22425 · Cited by 270
Is Economics Research Replicable? Sixty Published Papers from Thirteen Journals Say 'Usually Not'
Chang, A. C., & Li, P. (2015) · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2669564 · Cited by 217
Metadata
- Authors
- Ramey, V. A.
- Venue
- The Quarterly Journal of Economics
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2011-02
- Volume
- 126
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 1-50
- ISSN
- 0033-5533 (ISSN-L)
- 1531-4650
- OpenAlex
- W2178583389
- Cited by
- 1,661
- References
- 1
- FWCI
- 318.37
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
How to cite
Cite CoChat for the checks on this page, and the paper for its own findings.
- This page
- CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Identifying Government Spending Shocks: It's all in the Timing*. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1093/qje/qjq008
- The paper
- Ramey, V. A. (2011). Identifying Government Spending Shocks: It's all in the Timing*. The Quarterly Journal of Economics. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjq008
Data sources
Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
