The DOI matches its Crossref record; 2 of the 2 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Learning from Inflation Experiences *
Abstract
How do individuals form expectations about future inflation? We propose that individuals overweight inflation experienced during their lifetimes. This approach modifies existing adaptive learning models to allow for age-dependent updating of expectations in response to inflation surprises. Young individuals update their expectations more strongly than older individuals since recent experiences account for a greater share of their accumulated lifetime history. We find support for these predictions using 57 years of microdata on inflation expectations from the Reuters/Michigan Survey of Consumers. Differences in experiences strongly predict differences in expectations, including the substantial disagreement between young and old individuals in periods of highly volatile inflation, such as the 1970s. It also explains household borrowing and lending behavior, including the choice of mortgages.
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Cites
Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1973) · Cognitive Psychology · doi:10.1016/0010-0285(73)90033-9 · Cited by 9,984 · cited 1×
“(Tversky and Kahneman (1973)) rather than on the stochastic properties of macroeconomic variables to explain why data in the distant past is ignored.”
BackgroundPredicting excess stock returns out of sample: Can anything beat the historical average?
Campbell, J. Y., & Thompson, S. B. (2008) · Review of Financial Studies · doi:10.1093/rfs/hhm055 · Cited by 2,919
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Depression Babies: Do Macroeconomic Experiences Affect Risk-Taking?
Malmendier, U., & Nagel, S. (2011) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.1093/qje/qjq004 · Cited by 2,480
Self-citationThe impact of COVID-19 on student experiences and expectations: Evidence from a survey
Aucejo, E. M., French, J., Ugalde Araya, M. P., & Zafar, B. (2020) · Journal of Public Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104271 · Cited by 895
The European Trust Crisis and the Rise of Populism
Algan, Y., Guriev, S., Papaioannou, E., & Passari, E. (2017) · Brookings Papers on Economic Activity · doi:10.1353/eca.2017.0015 · Cited by 693
Gomes, F., Haliassos, M., & Ramadorai, T. (2021) · Journal of Economic Literature · doi:10.1257/jel.20201461 · Cited by 396
Home Price Expectations and Behaviour: Evidence from a Randomized Information Experiment
Armona, L., Fuster, A., & Zafar, B. (2019) · The Review of Economic Studies · doi:10.1093/restud/rdy038 · Cited by 319
Metadata
- Authors
- Malmendier, U., & Nagel, S.
- Venue
- The Quarterly Journal of Economics
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2015-10-01
- Volume
- 131
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 53-87
- ISSN
- 0033-5533 (ISSN-L)
- 1531-4650
- OpenAlex
- W2272326785
- Cited by
- 1,063
- References
- 2
- FWCI
- 168.58
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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- Malmendier, U., & Nagel, S. (2016). Learning from Inflation Experiences *. The Quarterly Journal of Economics. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjv037
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Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
