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The Risk and Predictability of International Equity Returns

Wayne E. Ferson, Campbell R. Harvey·1993·Review of Financial Studies

Abstract

We investigate predictability in national equity market returns, and its relation to global economic risks. We show how to consistently estimate the fraction of the predictable variation that is captured by an asset pricing model for the expected returns. We use a model in which conditional betas of the national equity markets depend on local information variables, while global risk premia depend on global variables. We examine single- and multiple-beta models, using monthly data for 1970 to 1989. The models capture much of the predictability for many countries. Most of this is related to time variation in the global risk premia.

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Metadata

Authors
Ferson, W. E., & Harvey, C. R.
Venue
Review of Financial Studies
Publisher
Oxford University Press
Published
1993-07-01
Volume
6
Issue
3
Pages
527-566
ISSN
0893-9454 (ISSN-L)
OpenAlex
W2165559086
Cited by
1,064
References
1
FWCI
50.91
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed

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CoChat. (2026). Citation check: The Risk and Predictability of International Equity Returns. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1093/rfs/5.3.527
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Ferson, W. E., & Harvey, C. R. (1993). The Risk and Predictability of International Equity Returns. Review of Financial Studies. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/5.3.527

Data sources

Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.

Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).

Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.