Cited by 353Schizophrenia research and treatmentMental Health and PsychiatryDecision-Making and Behavioral Economics

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Psychosis, Delusions and the “Jumping to Conclusions” Reasoning Bias: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

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Dudley, Robert, Taylor, Peter, Wickham, Sophie, Hutton, Paul·2016·Schizophrenia Bulletin

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Abstract

We did a systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate the magnitude and specificity of the "jumping to conclusions" (JTC) bias in psychosis and delusions. We examined the extent to which people with psychosis, and people with delusions specifically, required less information before making decisions. We examined (1) the average amount of information required to make a decision and (2) numbers who demonstrated an extreme JTC bias, as assessed by the "beads task." We compared people with psychosis to people with and without nonpsychotic mental health problems, and people with psychosis with and without delusions. We examined whether reduced data-gathering was associated with increased delusion severity. We identified 55 relevant studies, and acquired previously unpublished data from 16 authors. People with psychosis required significantly less information to make decisions than healthy individuals (k= 33,N= 1935,g= -0.53, 95% CI -0.69, -0.36) and those with nonpsychotic mental health problems (k= 13,N= 667,g= -0.58, 95% CI -0.80, -0.35). The odds of extreme responding in psychosis were between 4 and 6 times higher than the odds of extreme responding by healthy participants and participants with nonpsychotic mental health problems. The JTC bias was linked to a greater probability of delusion occurrence in psychosis (k= 14,N= 770, OR 1.52, 95% CI 1.12, 2.05). There was a trend-level inverse association between data-gathering and delusion severity (k= 18;N= 794;r= -.09, 95% CI -0.21, 0.03). Hence, nonaffective psychosis is characterized by a hasty decision-making style, which is linked to an increased probability of delusions.

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Fig. 1. PRISMA flowchart.CC BY-NC · PubMed Central

Fig. 2. Forest plots for analyses of draws to decision (DTD). (A) Forest plot for comparison of psychosis group vs nonclinical control on DTD. (B) Forest plot for comparison of psychosis group vs clinical control on DTD. (C) Forest plot for comparison of individuals with psychosis and delusions vs those with without current delusions on DTD (mean differences). (D) Correlation between draws to decisions and delusion severity in people with psychosis and delusions.CC BY-NC · PubMed Central

Fig. 3. Forest plots for analyses of extreme responding (JTC). (A) Forest plot for comparison of psychosis group vs nonclinical control on number who demonstrate extreme responding. (B) Forest plot for comparison of psychosis group vs clinical control on number who demonstrate extreme responding. (C) Forest plot for comparison of individuals with psychosis and delusions vs those with without current delusions on number who demonstrate extreme responding.CC BY-NC · PubMed Central

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Authors: Dudley, R., Taylor, P., Wickham, S., & Hutton, P.
Affiliations: Cumbria Northumberland Tyne and Wear NHS Foundation Trust (GB)
University of Liverpool (GB)
University of Edinburgh (GB)
Corresponding author: Dudley, Robert
ORCID: Dudley, Robert
Taylor, Peter
Wickham, Sophie
Hutton, Paul
Venue: Schizophrenia Bulletin
Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
Published: 2015-10-31
Volume: 42
Issue: 3
Pages: 652-665
ISSN: 0586-7614 (ISSN-L)
1745-1701
DOI: 10.1093/schbul/sbv150
PMC: PMC4838082
OpenAlex: W2163505421
Cited by: 353
References: 50
Citations by year: 2026: 43 · 2025: 28 · 2024: 29 · 2023: 29 · 2022: 33 · 2021: 43 · 2020: 30 · 2019: 29 · 2018: 38 · 2017: 28 · 2016: 20 · 2015: 1
FWCI: 3.99
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: hybrid
doi.org
Licence: cc-by-nc
Locations: Schizophrenia Bulletin (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Edinburgh Napier Research Repository (Edinburgh Napier University) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc)
HighWire Press Open Archive (submittedVersion)
Research Explorer (The University of Manchester) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
Edinburgh Research Explorer (University of Edinburgh) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc)
Newcastle University ePrints (Newcastle Univesity)
Topics: Health Sciences › Medicine › Psychiatry and Mental health › Schizophrenia research and treatment
Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › Philosophy › Mental Health and Psychiatry
Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
Keywords: psychosis, delusions
MeSH terms: Decision Making, Delusions, Humans, Psychotic Disorders

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Psychosis, Delusions and the “Jumping to Conclusions” Reasoning Bias: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

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