Jumping to conclusions about the beads task? A meta-analysis of delusional ideation and data-gathering
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It has been claimed that delusional and delusion-prone individuals have a tendency to gather less data before forming beliefs. Most of the evidence for this "jumping to conclusions" (JTC) bias comes from studies using the "beads task" data-gathering paradigm. However, the evidence for the JTC bias is mixed. We conducted a random-effects meta-analysis of individual participant data from 38 clinical and nonclinical samples (n = 2,237) to investigate the relationship between data gathering in the beads task (using the "draws to decision" measure) and delusional ideation (as indexed by the "Peters et al Delusions Inventory"; PDI). We found that delusional ideation is negatively associated with data gathering (r(s) = -0.10, 95% CI [-0.17, -0.03]) and that there is heterogeneity in the estimated effect sizes (Q-stat P = .03, I(2) = 33). Subgroup analysis revealed that the negative association is present when considering the 23 samples (n = 1,754) from the large general population subgroup alone (r(s) = -0.10, 95% CI [-0.18, -0.02]) but not when considering the 8 samples (n = 262) from the small current delusions subgroup alone (r(s) = -0.12, 95% CI [-0.31, 0.07]). These results provide some provisional support for continuum theories of psychosis and cognitive models that implicate the JTC bias in the formation and maintenance of delusions.
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Those induced to experience negative affect reported significantly more paranoid thoughts and a more pronounced Jumping to Conclusions bias than those not induced.
“The typical finding is that those induced to experience negative affect reported significantly more paranoid thoughts and a more pronounced Jumping to Conclusions bias (JTC, for a review see [36] when compared to participants who were not induced to experience negative affect [35, 36].”
From A structural equation model of the relationship between insomnia, negative affect, and paranoid thinking (2017) · cites this paper as [35]
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- Authors
- Ross, R. M., McKay, R., Coltheart, M., & Langdon, R.
- Affiliations
- ARC Centre of Excellence in Cognition and its Disorders (AU)
- Royal Holloway University of London (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Ross, Robert Malcolm
- Venue
- Schizophrenia Bulletin
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2015-01-22
- Volume
- 41
- Issue
- 5
- Pages
- 1183-1191
- ISSN
- 0586-7614 (ISSN-L)
- 1745-1701
- PMC
- PMC4535629
- OpenAlex
- W2149279583
- Cited by
- 198
- References
- 88
- Citations by year
- 2026: 10 · 2025: 12 · 2024: 15 · 2023: 11 · 2022: 15 · 2021: 27 · 2020: 33 · 2019: 16 · 2018: 19 · 2017: 17 · 2016: 19 · 2015: 3
- FWCI
- 2.66
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- other-oa
- Locations
- Schizophrenia Bulletin (publishedVersion, other-oa)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- Macquarie University
- Australian Research Council (FT110100631)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Psychiatry and Mental health › Schizophrenia research and treatment
- Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › Philosophy › Mental Health and Psychiatry
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
- Keywords
- jumping to conclusions bias, delusional ideation
- MeSH terms
- Adult, Delusions, Female, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Psychotic Disorders, Thinking, Young Adult
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