Validity of the Medical College Admission Test for predicting medical school performance

Julian, Ellen R.

doi:10.1097/00001888-200510000-00010

Cited by 319Medical Education and AdmissionsInnovations in Medical EducationDiversity and Career in Medicine

Validity of the Medical College Admission Test for predicting medical school performance

Julian, Ellen R.·2005·Academic Medicine

DOI 10.1097/00001888-200510000-00010

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Abstract

PURPOSE: Since the introduction of the revised Medical College Admission Test (MCAT(R)) in 1991, the Association of American Medical Colleges has been investigating the extent to which MCAT scores supplement the power of undergraduate grade point averages (uGPAs) to predict success in medical school. This report is a comprehensive summary of the relationships between MCAT scores and (1) medical school grades, (2) United States Medical Licensing Examination (USMLE) Step scores, and (3) academic distinction or difficulty. METHOD: This study followed two cohorts from entrance to medical school through residency. Students from 14 medical schools' 1992 and 1993 entering classes provided data for predicting medical school grades and academic difficulty/distinction, while their peers from all of the U.S. medical schools were used to predict performance on USMLE Steps 1, 2, and 3. Regression analyses assessed the predictive power of combinations of uGPAs, MCAT scores, and undergraduate-institution selectivity. RESULTS: Grades were best predicted by a combination of MCAT scores and uGPAs, with MCAT scores providing a substantial increment over uGPAs. MCAT scores were better predictors of USMLE Step scores than were uGPAs, and the combination did little better than MCAT scores alone. The probability of experiencing academic difficulty or distinction tended to vary with MCAT scores. MCAT scores were strong predictors of scores for all three Step examinations, particularly Step 1. CONCLUSIONS: MCAT scores almost double the proportion of variance in medical school grades explained by uGPAs, and essentially replace the need for uGPAs in their impressive prediction of Step scores. The MCAT performs well as an indicator of academic preparation for medical school, independent of the school-specific handicaps of uGPAs.

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GPA and MCAT are good predictors for medical school GPA and USMLE scores, with MCAT often being the better predictor.
“They are good predictors for medical school GPA and USMLE scores with the MCAT often being the better predictor 13 .”
From Effect of repeated/spaced formative assessments on medical school final exam performance (2017) · cites this paper as [13]

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American Medical Colleges has been
Julian, E. R. (2014)
Self-citation
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Self-citation

Authors: Julian, E. R.
Affiliations: Association of American Medical Colleges (US)
Corresponding author: Julian, Ellen R.
Venue: Academic Medicine
Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
Published: 2005-10
Volume: 80
Issue: 10
Pages: 910-917
ISSN: 1040-2446 (ISSN-L)
DOI: 10.1097/00001888-200510000-00010
OpenAlex: W2032031273
Cited by: 319
References: 8
Citations by year: 2026: 4 · 2025: 1 · 2024: 8 · 2023: 2 · 2022: 11 · 2021: 11 · 2020: 17 · 2019: 21 · 2018: 12 · 2017: 22 · 2016: 28 · 2015: 19 · 2014: 21 · 2013: 27 · 2012: 27
FWCI: 12.88
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Locations: Academic Medicine (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Topics: Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Medical Education and Admissions
Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Innovations in Medical Education
Social Sciences › Gender Studies › Diversity and Career in Medicine
Keywords: MCAT, medical school admissions, predictive validity, undergraduate grade point average, academic distinctions, academic difficulties, medical students
MeSH terms: Clinical Competence, College Admission Test, Education, Medical, Undergraduate, Humans, Internship and Residency, Licensure, Medical, Predictive Value of Tests, Probability, School Admission Criteria, Schools, Medical, Statistics as Topic, Students, Medical, United States, Cohort Studies

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Validity of the Medical College Admission Test for predicting medical school performance

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