What is needed to eliminate new pediatric HIV infections: the contribution of model-based analyses
Open accessAbstract
PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Computer simulation models can identify key clinical, operational, and economic interventions that will be needed to achieve the elimination of new pediatric HIV infections. In this review, we summarize recent findings from model-based analyses of strategies for prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission (MTCT). RECENT FINDINGS: In order to achieve elimination of MTCT (eMTCT), model-based studies suggest that scale-up of services will be needed in several domains: uptake of services and retention in care (the PMTCT 'cascade'), interventions to prevent HIV infections in women and reduce unintended pregnancies (the 'four-pronged approach'), efforts to support medication adherence through long periods of pregnancy and breastfeeding, and strategies to make breastfeeding safer and/or shorter. Models also project the economic resources that will be needed to achieve these goals in the most efficient ways to allocate limited resources for eMTCT. Results suggest that currently recommended PMTCT regimens (WHO Option A, Option B, and Option B+) will be cost-effective in most settings. SUMMARY: Model-based results can guide future implementation science, by highlighting areas in which additional data are needed to make informed decisions and by outlining critical interventions that will be necessary in order to eliminate new pediatric HIV infections.
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
PMTCT care cascade failures drive pediatric HIV infections in sub-Saharan Africa.
“Gaps in the implementation of prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission (PMTCT) services drive pediatric HIV infection in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) [1-3].”
In practice, HIV transmission rates are several times higher than trial rates because of high drop-out rates of HIV-positive women along the PMTCT care cascade.
“the rates are several times higher in practice because of the high drop-out rates of HIV-positive women along the PMTCT care cascade [1-3,6-9].”
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Cites
Prevention of HIV-1 infection with early antiretroviral therapy.
Cohen, M. S., Chen, Y. Q., McCauley, M., Gamble, T., Hosseinipour, M. C., Kumarasamy, N., Hakim, J. G., Kumwenda, J., Grinsztejn, B., Pilotto, J. H. S., et al. (2011) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmoa1105243 · Cited by 6,873 · see citing works
Recommendations of the Panel on Cost-Effectiveness in Health and Medicine
Weinstein, M. C. (1996) · JAMA: The Journal of the American Medical Association · doi:10.1001/jama.1996.03540150055031 · Cited by 2,455 · cited 1× · see citing works
“As a result, the conventional units of cost-effectiveness analysis -- $/LYS, $/QALY, or $/DALY -- are preferred [48].”
BackgroundCD4+ Count–Guided Interruption of Antiretroviral Treatment
The Strategies for Management of Antiretroviral Therapy (SMART) Study Group (2006) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmoa062360 · Cited by 2,230 · see citing works
Gold, M. R., Stevenson, D., & Fryback, D. G. (2002) · Annual Review of Public Health · doi:10.1146/annurev.publhealth.23.100901.140513 · Cited by 652 · see citing works
Townsend, C. L., Cortina‐Borja, M., Peckham, C. S., de Ruiter, A., Lyall, H., & Tookey, P. A. (2008) · AIDS · doi:10.1097/qad.0b013e3282f9b67a · Cited by 578 · see citing works
Antiretroviral Regimens in Pregnancy and Breast-Feeding in Botswana
Shapiro, R., Hughes, M. D., Ogwu, A., Kitch, D. W., Lockman, S., Moffat, C., Makhema, J. M., Moyo, S. M., Thior, I., McIntosh, K., et al. (2010) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmoa0907736 · Cited by 519 · see citing works
Nachega, J. B., Uthman, O. A., Anderson, J., Peltzer, K., Wampold, S., Cotton, M. F., Mills, E. J., Ho, Y., Stringer, J. S. A., McIntyre, J. A., et al. (2012) · AIDS · doi:10.1097/qad.0b013e328359590f · Cited by 488 · see citing works
Maternal or Infant Antiretroviral Drugs to Reduce HIV-1 Transmission
Chasela, C., Hudgens, M. G., Jamieson, D. J., Kayira, D., Hosseinipour, M. C., Kourtis, A. P., Martinson, F. E. A., Tegha, G., Knight, R. J., Ahmed, Y., et al. (2010) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmoa0911486 · Cited by 435 · see citing works
de Vincenzi, I. (2011) · The Lancet Infectious Diseases · doi:10.1016/s1473-3099(10)70288-7 · Cited by 407 · see citing works
Effects of Early, Abrupt Weaning on HIV-free Survival of Children in Zambia
Kuhn, L., Aldrovandi, G. M., Sinkala, M., et al. (2008) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmoa073788 · Cited by 313 · see citing works
Safety of efavirenz in the first trimester of pregnancy
Ford, N. P., MOFENSON, L. M., Shubber, Z., Calmy, A., Andrieux‐Meyer, I., Vitória, M., Shaffer, N., & Renaud, F. (2014) · AIDS · doi:10.1097/qad.0000000000000231 · Cited by 274 · see citing works
Six Week Extended-Dose Nevirapine Study Team (2008) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(08)61114-9 · Cited by 258 · see citing works
Schouten, E. J., Jahn, A., Midiani, D., et al. (2011) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(10)62303-3 · Cited by 235 · see citing works
Danel, C., Moh, R., Minga, A. K., et al. (2006) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(06)68887-9 · Cited by 221 · see citing works
Powis, K. M., Kitch, D. W., Ogwu, A., Hughes, M. D., Lockman, S., Leidner, J., van Widenfelt, E., Moffat, C., Moyo, S. M., Makhema, J. M., et al. (2011) · The Journal of Infectious Diseases · doi:10.1093/infdis/jir307 · Cited by 215 · see citing works
Thomas, T. K., Masaba, R. O., Borkowf, C. B., et al. (2011) · PLoS Medicine · doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001015 · Cited by 177 · see citing works
Missed opportunities to prevent mother-to-child-transmission
Wettstein, C., Mugglin, C., Egger, M., Blaser, N., Vizcaya, L. S., Estill, J. A. M., Bender, N., Davies, M., Wandeler, G., & Keiser, O. (2012) · AIDS · doi:10.1097/qad.0b013e328359ab0c · Cited by 176 · see citing works
Stringer, E. M. (2010) · JAMA · doi:10.1001/jama.2010.990 · Cited by 148 · see citing works
Safety of tenofovir use during pregnancy
Siberry, G. K., Williams, P. L., Mendez, H. A., et al. (2012) · AIDS · doi:10.1097/qad.0b013e328352d135 · Cited by 139 · see citing works
Brogly, S. B., Ylitalo, N., MOFENSON, L. M., Oleske, J. M., Dyke, R. V., Crain, M. J., Abzug, M. J., Brady, M. T., Jean‐Philippe, P., Hughes, M. D., et al. (2007) · AIDS · doi:10.1097/qad.0b013e3280d5a786 · Cited by 132 · see citing works
Mahy, M. I., Stover, J., Kiragu, K., Hayashi, C., Akwara, P. A., Luo, C., Stanecki, K. A., Ekpini, R. E., & Shaffer, N. (2010) · Sexually Transmitted Infections · doi:10.1136/sti.2010.045989 · Cited by 130 · see citing works
Safety of efavirenz in the first trimester of pregnancy
Ford, N. P., Calmy, A., & MOFENSON, L. M. (2011) · AIDS · doi:10.1097/qad.0b013e32834cdb71 · Cited by 116 · see citing works
Barker, P. M., Mphatswe, W., & Rollins, N. (2011) · JAIDS Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes · doi:10.1097/qai.0b013e3181fdbf20 · Cited by 112 · see citing works
Powis, K. M., Smeaton, L. M., Ogwu, A., et al. (2010) · JAIDS Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes · doi:10.1097/qai.0b013e3181ffa4f5 · Cited by 82 · see citing works
Fasawe, O., Ávila, C., Shaffer, N., Schouten, E. J., Chimbwandira, F. M., Hoos, D., Nakakeeto, O. N., & Lay, P. R. D. (2013) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0057778 · Cited by 78 · see citing works
Car, L. T., Brusamento, S., Elmoniry, H., et al. (2013) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0056550 · Cited by 73 · see citing works
Ciaranello, A. L., Pérez, F., Keatinge, J., Park, J.-E., Engelsmann, B., Maruva, M., Walensky, R. P., Dabis, F., Chu, J., Rusibamayila, A., et al. (2012) · PLoS Medicine · doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001156 · Cited by 72 · see citing works
Self-citationMortality among HIV‐Exposed Infants: The First and Final Frontier
Shapiro, R., & Lockman, S. (2010) · Clinical Infectious Diseases · doi:10.1086/649887 · Cited by 52 · see citing works
Kuhn, L., & Aldrovandi, G. M. (2010) · Clinics in Perinatology · doi:10.1016/j.clp.2010.08.011 · Cited by 52 · see citing works
Johri, M., & Ako-Arrey, D. E. (2011) · Cost Effectiveness and Resource Allocation · doi:10.1186/1478-7547-9-3 · Cited by 50 · see citing works
Kuznik, A., Lamorde, M., Hermans, S., Castelnuovo, B., Auerbach, B. J., Semeere, A., Sempa, J. B., Ssennono, M., Ssewankambob, F., & Manabe, Y. C. (2012) · Bulletin of the World Health Organization · doi:10.2471/blt.11.095430 · Cited by 50 · see citing works
Cost-Effectiveness of Antiretroviral Therapy for Prevention
Kahn, J. G., Marseille, E. A., snm, R. B., Publisher, B. S. P. B. S., Williams, B. G., & Granich, R. (2011) · Current HIV Research · doi:10.2174/157016211798038542 · Cited by 48 · see citing works
Ciaranello, A. L., Pérez, F., Engelsmann, B., Walensky, R. P., Mushavi, A., Rusibamayila, A., Keatinge, J., Park, J.-E., Maruva, M., Cerda, R., et al. (2012) · Clinical Infectious Diseases · doi:10.1093/cid/cis858 · Cited by 46 · see citing works
Self-citationCiaranello, A. L., Pérez, F., Maruva, M., Chu, J., Engelsmann, B., Keatinge, J., Walensky, R. P., Mushavi, A., Mugwagwa, R., Dabis, F., et al. (2011) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0020224 · Cited by 45 · see citing works
Self-citationTownsend, C. L., Tookey, P. A., Newell, M., et al. (2010) · Antiviral Therapy · doi:10.3851/imp1613 · Cited by 39 · see citing works
Ciaranello, A. L., Seage, G. R., Freedberg, K. A., et al. (2008) · AIDS · doi:10.1097/qad.0b013e3283189bd7 · Cited by 39 · see citing works
Self-citationShah, M., Johns, B., Abimiku, A., et al. (2011) · AIDS · doi:10.1097/qad.0b013e32834670b9 · Cited by 38 · see citing works
Braithwaite, R. S., Nucifora, K. A., Yiannoutsos, C. T., et al. (2011) · Journal of the International AIDS Society · doi:10.1186/1758-2652-14-38 · Cited by 37 · see citing works
Orlando, S., Marazzi, M. C., Mancinelli, S., et al. (2010) · JAIDS Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes · doi:10.1097/qai.0b013e3181f9f9f5 · Cited by 32 · see citing works
Robberstad, B., & Evjen‐Olsen, B. (2010) · JAIDS Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes · doi:10.1097/qai.0b013e3181eef4d3 · Cited by 32 · see citing works
Persaud, D., Bedri, A., Ziemniak, C., et al. (2011) · AIDS Research and Human Retroviruses · doi:10.1089/aid.2010.0346 · Cited by 32 · see citing works
Binagwaho, A., Pegurri, E., Drobac, P. C., et al. (2013) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0054180 · Cited by 29 · see citing works
Schneider, K., Puthanakit, T., Kerr, S. J., et al. (2011) · AIDS · doi:10.1097/qad.0b013e3283466fab · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Schmidt, N. C., Roman‐Pouriet, J., Fernandez, A. D., et al. (2011) · International Journal of Gynecology & Obstetrics · doi:10.1016/j.ijgo.2011.10.028 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 6
- [4]World Health Organization Antiretroviral drugs for treating pregnant women and preventing HIV infection in infants: towards universal access 2010 http://whqlibdoc.who.int/publications/2010/9789241599818_eng.pdf. March 22, 2013 26180894
- Ciaranello AL Perez F Keatinge J What will it take to eliminate pediatric HIV? Reaching “virtual elimination” targets for prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission (PMTCT) in Zimbabwe. PLoS Medicine 2012 9 e1001156 Our recent analysis is one of only three published models to project MTCT rates under various uptake levels, PMTCT regimens, breastfeeding durations and published MTCT risks. 22253579 PMC3254654
- [24]Ciaranello A Leroy V Rusibamayila A Individualizing the WHO public health approach to infant feeding guidelines: Optimal breastfeeding duration to maximize infant HIV-free survival 19th Conference on Retroviruses and Opportunistic Infections. Seattle, WA 2012 http://www.retroconference.org/2012b/Abstracts/42731.htm. February 27, 2013
- [32]Sibiude J Mandelbrot L Blanche S Birth defects and ART in the French perinatal cohort, a prospective exhaustive study among 13,124 live births from 1994 to 2010. Conference on Retroviruses and Opportunistic Infections. Atlanta, Georgia 2103 http://www.retroconference.org/2013b/Abstracts/46473.htm. March 26, 2013
- [35]Revill P Mabugu T Mirimo F Within-trial cost-effectiveness analysis of clinically-driven vs laboratory and clinical monitoring for 1206 African children on ART: The AntiRetroviral Research for Watoto Trial. Conference on Retroviruses and Opportunistic Infections. Atlanta, Georgia 2013 http://www.retroconference.org/2013b/Abstracts/46941.htm. March 26, 2013
- [47]Hunink MGP Siegel J Decision making in health and medicine: integrating evidence and values 2003 Cambridge University Press Cambridge
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Adetokunboh, O. O., & Oluwasanu, M. (2016) · Journal of Infection and Public Health · doi:10.1016/j.jiph.2015.06.010 · Cited by 59 · see citing works
Kawakyu, N., Nduati, R., Munguambe, K., Coutinho, J., Mburu, N., DeCastro, G., Inguane, C., Zunt, A., Abburi, N., Sherr, K., et al. (2019) · JMIR mHealth and uHealth · doi:10.2196/13963 · Cited by 19 · see citing works
- Authors
- Doherty, K., & Ciaranello, A.
- Affiliations
- Massachusetts General Hospital (US)
- Corresponding author
- Doherty, Katie
- ORCID
- Ciaranello, Andrea
- Venue
- Current Opinion in HIV and AIDS
- Published
- 2013-09
- Volume
- 8
- Issue
- 5
- Pages
- 457-466
- ISSN
- 1746-630X (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC3799993
- OpenAlex
- W2074339575
- Cited by
- 13
- References
- 44
- Citations by year
- 2023: 1 · 2022: 1 · 2019: 1 · 2018: 2 · 2017: 2 · 2016: 1 · 2015: 3 · 2014: 1 · 2013: 1
- FWCI
- 0.26
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Current Opinion in HIV and AIDS (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (acceptedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (K01AI078754, U01AI068616, 5 U01 AI41110, U01AI068632, U01AI041110, UM1AI068616, UM1AI106716, UM1AI068632, R01AI058736)
- National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases (N01-DK-9-001/, HHSN267200800001G)
- Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (HHSN267200800001C)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › HIV/AIDS Research and Interventions
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › HIV, Drug Use, Sexual Risk
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Pediatrics, Perinatology and Child Health › Global Maternal and Child Health
- Keywords
- prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV, pediatric HIV, cascade of care, retention in care, unintended pregnancy, antiretroviral therapy adherence, breastfeeding, cost-effectiveness, resource allocation, HIV prevention strategies
- MeSH terms
- Computer Simulation, Costs and Cost Analysis, Family Planning Services, Female, Humans, Infant, Newborn, Pregnancy, HIV Infections, Infectious Disease Transmission, Vertical, Perinatal Care, Anti-Retroviral Agents, Medication Adherence
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review