Periodic climate cooling enhanced natural disasters and wars in China during AD 10–1900

Zhang, Zhibin; Tian, Huidong; Cazelles, Bernard; Kausrud, Kyrre L.; Bräuning, Achim; Guo, Fang; Stenseth, Nils Chr

doi:10.1098/rspb.2010.0890

Cited by 116Geology and Paleoclimatology ResearchArchaeology and ancient environmental studiesClimate change impacts on agriculture

Periodic climate cooling enhanced natural disasters and wars in China during AD 10–1900

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Zhang, Zhibin, Tian, Huidong, Cazelles, Bernard, Kausrud, Kyrre L., Bräuning, Achim, Guo, Fang, Stenseth, Nils Chr·2010·Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences

DOI 10.1098/rspb.2010.0890PMC PMC2992701

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Abstract

Recent studies have linked climatic and social instabilities in ancient China; the underlying causal mechanisms have, however, often not been quantitatively assessed. Here, using historical records and palaeoclimatic reconstructions during AD 10–1900, we demonstrate that war frequency, price of rice, locust plague, drought frequency, flood frequency and temperature in China show two predominant periodic bands around 160 and 320 years where they interact significantly with each other. Temperature cooling shows direct positive association with the frequency of external aggression war to the Chinese dynasties mostly from the northern pastoral nomadic societies, and indirect positive association with the frequency of internal war within the Chinese dynasties through drought and locust plagues. The collapses of the agricultural dynasties of the Han, Tang, Song and Ming are more closely associated with low temperature. Our study suggests that food production during the last two millennia has been more unstable during cooler periods, resulting in more social conflicts owing to rebellions within the dynasties or/and southward aggressions from northern pastoral nomadic societies in ancient China.

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As a result, the peasants were extremely discontented with the Qing Government.
“As a result, the peasants were extremely discontented with the Qing Government.81”
From Climate change and Chinese history: a review of trends, topics, and methods (2015) · cites this paper as [81]
The Introduction and Discussion (page unavailable) link agricultural hardship to internal uprisings and identify peasant uprisings as a type of internal war. The paper includes the Qing period in its analysis, but it does not specifically say that peasants were extremely discontented with the Qing government. (LLM, conf=0.79)
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Authors: Zhang, Z., Tian, H., Cazelles, B., Kausrud, K. L., Bräuning, A., Guo, F., & Stenseth, N. C.
Affiliations: Chinese Academy of Sciences (CN)
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR)
University of Oslo (NO)
Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg (DE)
Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CN)
Corresponding author: Zhang, Zhibin
ORCID: Zhang, Zhibin
Tian, Huidong
Cazelles, Bernard
Kausrud, Kyrre L.
Bräuning, Achim
Stenseth, Nils Chr
Venue: Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
Publisher: The Royal Society
Published: 2010-07-14
Volume: 277
Issue: 1701
Pages: 3745-3753
ISSN: 0080-4649 (ISSN-L)
0962-8452
1471-2954
DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2010.0890
PMC: PMC2992701
OpenAlex: W2165391243
Cited by: 116
References: 29
Citations by year: 2026: 3 · 2025: 6 · 2024: 7 · 2023: 6 · 2022: 8 · 2021: 11 · 2020: 8 · 2019: 7 · 2018: 10 · 2017: 10 · 2016: 4 · 2015: 8 · 2014: 13 · 2013: 5 · 2012: 8
FWCI: 3.18
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: green
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
Licence: royalsociety.org/journals/ethics-policies/data-sharing-mining/ (tdm)
Locations: Proceedings of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences (publishedVersion)
Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Funders: Nanjing Normal University
Chinese Academy of Sciences
Topics: Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Paleontology › Archaeology and ancient environmental studies
Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics › Climate change impacts on agriculture
Keywords: global cooling, historical climate variability, natural disasters, locust plagues, drought, floods, rice prices, temperature reconstruction, dynastic collapse, social instability, nomadic invasions, food production, ancient China, paleoclimate
MeSH terms: China, Disasters, Population Dynamics, Warfare, History, 15th Century, History, 16th Century, History, 17th Century, History, 18th Century, History, 19th Century, History, Ancient, History, Medieval, Climate Change

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Periodic climate cooling enhanced natural disasters and wars in China during AD 10–1900

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