The DOI matches its Crossref record; 47 of the 47 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Diversity-dependence brings molecular phylogenies closer to agreement with the fossil record
Open accessAbstract
The branching times of molecular phylogenies allow us to infer speciation and extinction dynamics even when fossils are absent. Troublingly, phylogenetic approaches usually return estimates of zero extinction, conflicting with fossil evidence. Phylogenies and fossils do agree, however, that there are often limits to diversity. Here, we present a general approach to evaluate the likelihood of a phylogeny under a model that accommodates diversity-dependence and extinction. We find, by likelihood maximization, that extinction is estimated most precisely if the rate of increase in the number of lineages in the phylogeny saturates towards the present or first decreases and then increases. We demonstrate the utility and limits of our approach by applying it to the phylogenies for two cases where a fossil record exists (Cetacea and Cenozoic macroperforate planktonic foraminifera) and to three radiations lacking fossil evidence ( Dendroica , Plethodon and Heliconius ). We propose that the diversity-dependence model with extinction be used as the standard model for macro-evolutionary dynamics because of its biological realism and flexibility.
Overview
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Citations
Cites
(2003) · Cited by 2,898
Nine exceptional radiations plus high turnover explain species diversity in jawed vertebrates
Alfaro, M. E., Santini, F., Brock, C., Alamillo, H., Dornburg, A., Rabosky, D. L., Carnevale, G., & Harmon, L. J. (2009) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0811087106 · Cited by 833
The reconstructed evolutionary process
Nee, S., May, R. M., & Harvey, P. H. (1994) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences · doi:10.1098/rstb.1994.0068 · Cited by 820
Testing macro–evolutionary models using incomplete molecular phylogenies
Pybus, O. G., & Harvey, P. H. (2000) · Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences · doi:10.1098/rspb.2000.1278 · Cited by 795
Rabosky, D. L. (2010) · Evolution · doi:10.1111/j.1558-5646.2009.00926.x · Cited by 589
Niche Construction: The Neglected Process in Evolution (MPB-37)
Odling-Smee, F. J., Laland, K. N., & Feldman, M. W. (2013) · Princeton University Press eBooks · doi:10.1515/9781400847266 · Cited by 586
Stochastic Models of Phylogeny and the Evolution of Diversity
Raup, D. M., Gould, S. J., Schopf, T. J. M., & Simberloff, D. S. (1973) · The Journal of Geology · doi:10.1086/627905 · Cited by 571
Tempo and mode of evolution revealed from molecular phylogenies.
Nee, S., Mooers, A. O., & Harvey, P. H. (1992) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.89.17.8322 · Cited by 533
The Shifting Balance of Diversity Among Major Marine Animal Groups
Alroy, J. (2010) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1189910 · Cited by 467
Density-Dependent Cladogenesis in Birds
Phillimore, A. B., & Price, T. D. (2008) · PLoS Biology · doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.0060071 · Cited by 460
Self-citation
Cited by
The global diversity of birds in space and time
Jetz, W., Thomas, G. H., Joy, J. B., Hartmann, K., & Mooers, A. O. (2012) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature11631 · Cited by 3,934
Estimating the normal background rate of species extinction
De Vos, J. M., Joppa, L. N., Gittleman, J. L., Stephens, P. R., & Pimm, S. L. (2015) · Conservation Biology · doi:10.1111/cobi.12380 · Cited by 675
Bayesian Evolutionary Analysis with BEAST
Drummond, A. J., & Bouckaert, R. R. (2015) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9781139095112 · Cited by 527
Slater, G. J., Harmon, L. J., & Alfaro, M. E. (2012) · Evolution · doi:10.1111/j.1558-5646.2012.01723.x · Cited by 334
Mega-evolutionary dynamics of the adaptive radiation of birds
Cooney, C. R., Bright, J. A., Capp, E. J. R., Chira, A. M., Hughes, E. C., Moody, C. J. A., Nouri, L. O., Varley, Z. K., & Thomas, G. H. (2017) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature21074 · Cited by 356
Metadata
- Authors
- Etienne, R. S., Haegeman, B., Stadler, T., Aze, T., Pearson, P. N., Purvis, A., & Phillimore, A. B.
- Venue
- Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
- Publisher
- The Royal Society
- Published
- 2011-10-12
- Volume
- 279
- Issue
- 1732
- Pages
- 1300-1309
- ISSN
- 0080-4649 (ISSN-L)
- 0962-8452
- 1471-2954
- OpenAlex
- W2126833785
- Cited by
- 342
- References
- 47
- FWCI
- 17.43
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
How to cite
Cite CoChat for the checks on this page, and the paper for its own findings.
- This page
- CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Diversity-dependence brings molecular phylogenies closer to agreement with the fossil record. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1098/rspb.2011.1439
- The paper
- Etienne, R. S., Haegeman, B., Stadler, T., Aze, T., Pearson, P. N., Purvis, A., & Phillimore, A. B. (2012). Diversity-dependence brings molecular phylogenies closer to agreement with the fossil record. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2011.1439
Data sources
Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.