Greenhouse gases in the Earth system: a palaeoclimate perspective
Abstract
While the trends in greenhouse gas concentrations in recent decades are clear, their significance is only revealed when viewed in the context of a longer time period. Fortunately, the air bubbles in polar ice cores provide an unusually direct method of determining the concentrations of stable gases over a period of (so far) 800 000 years. Measurements on different cores with varying characteristics, as well as an overlap of ice-core and atmospheric measurements covering the same time period, show that the ice-core record provides a faithful record of changing atmospheric composition. The mixing ratio of CO 2 is now 30 per cent higher than any value observed in the ice-core record, while methane is more than double any observed value; the rate of change also appears extraordinary compared with natural changes. Before the period when anthropogenic changes have dominated, there are very interesting natural changes in concentration, particularly across glacial/interglacial cycles, and these can be used to understand feedbacks in the Earth system. The phasing of changes in temperature and CO 2 across glacial/interglacial transitions is consistent with the idea that CO 2 acts as an important amplifier of climate changes in the natural system. Even larger changes are inferred to have occurred in periods earlier than the ice cores cover, and these events might be used to constrain assessments of the way the Earth could respond to higher than present concentrations of CO 2 , and to a large release of carbon: however, more certainty about CO 2 concentrations beyond the time period covered by ice cores is needed before such constraints can be fully realized.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
Atmospheric CO2 concentrations have exceeded Holocene levels since at least 1850 C.E.
“Atmospheric CO2, now above 400 ppm, is currently being emitted into the atmosphere ~100 times as fast as the most rapid emission of the past 800,000 years ( 65 ) and concentrations have exceeded Holocene levels since at least 1850 C.E. (Fig. 5).”
From The Anthropocene is functionally and stratigraphically distinct from the Holocene (2016) · cites this paper as [65]
Atmospheric CO2 is now above 400 ppm and is currently being emitted ~100 times as fast as the most rapid emission of the past 800,000 years.
“Atmospheric CO2, now above 400 ppm, is currently being emitted into the atmosphere ~100 times as fast as the most rapid emission of the past 800,000 years ( 65 ) and concentrations have exceeded Holocene levels since at least 1850 C.E. (Fig. 5).”
From The Anthropocene is functionally and stratigraphically distinct from the Holocene (2016) · cites this paper as [65]
Cites
A Pliocene‐Pleistocene stack of 57 globally distributed benthic δ 18 O records
Lisiecki, L. E., & Raymo, M. E. (2005) · Paleoceanography · doi:10.1029/2004pa001071 · Cited by 8,276 · see citing works
Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica
Petit, J., Jouzel, J., Raynaud, D., Barkov, N. I., Barnola, J.-M., Basile‐Doelsch, I., Bender, M. L., Chappellaz, J., Davis, M. E., Delaygue, G., et al. (1999) · Nature · doi:10.1038/20859 · Cited by 6,516 · see citing works
High-resolution record of Northern Hemisphere climate extending into the last interglacial period
North Greenland Ice Core Project members (2004) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature02805 · Cited by 3,349 · see citing works
Orbital and Millennial Antarctic Climate Variability over the Past 800,000 Years
Jouzel, J., Masson‐Delmotte, V., Cattani, O., Dreyfus, G., Falourd, S., Hoffmann, G., Minster, B., Nouet, J., Barnola, J.-M., Chappellaz, J., et al. (2007) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1141038 · Cited by 2,592 · see citing works
Self-citationHigh-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000–800,000 years before present
Lüthi, D., Floch, M. L., Bereiter, B., Blunier, T., Barnola, J.-M., Siegenthaler, U., Raynaud, D., Jouzel, J., Fischer, H., Kawamura, K., et al. (2008) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature06949 · Cited by 2,571 · see citing works
The Anthropogenic Greenhouse Era Began Thousands of Years Ago
Ruddiman, W. F. (2003) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1023/b:clim.0000004577.17928.fa · Cited by 1,658 · see citing works
Irregular glacial interstadials recorded in a new Greenland ice core
Johnsen, S. J., Clausen, H., Dansgaard, W., Führer, K., Gundestrup, N. S., Hammer, C. U., Iversen, P., Jouzel, J., Stauffer, B., & Steffensen, J. P. (1992) · Nature · doi:10.1038/359311a0 · Cited by 1,468 · see citing works
Atmospheric CO 2 Concentrations over the Last Glacial Termination
Monnin, E., Indermuehle, A., Dällenbach, A., Flückiger, J., Stauffer, B., Stocker, T. F., Raynaud, D., & Barnola, J.-M. (2001) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.291.5501.112 · Cited by 1,274 · see citing works
Rapid Acidification of the Ocean During the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum
Zachos, J. C., Röhl, U., Schellenberg, S. A., Sluijs, A., Hodell, D. A., Kelly, D. C., Thomas, E., Nicolo, M. J., Raffi, I., Lourens, L. J., et al. (2005) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1109004 · Cited by 1,177 · see citing works
Ice core record of the 13C/12C ratio of atmospheric CO2 in the past two centuries
Friedli, H., Loetscher, H. P., Oeschger, H., Siegenthaler, U., & Stauffer, B. (1986) · Nature · doi:10.1038/324237a0 · Cited by 1,155 · see citing works
Etheridge, D. M., Steele, L. P., Langenfelds, R. L., Francey, R. J., Barnola, J.-M., & Morgan, V. I. (1996) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/95jd03410 · Cited by 1,149 · see citing works
Orbital and millennial-scale features of atmospheric CH4 over the past 800,000 years
Loulergue, L., Schilt, A., Spahni, R., Masson‐Delmotte, V., Blunier, T., Lemieux-Dudon, B., Barnola, J.-M., Raynaud, D., Stocker, T. F., & Chappellaz, J. (2008) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature06950 · Cited by 1,072 · see citing works
Simulating Arctic Climate Warmth and Ice Field Retreat in the Last Interglaciation
Otto‐Bliesner, B. L., Marshall, S. J., Overpeck, J. T., Miller, G. H., Hu, A., & CAPE Last Interglacial Project members (2006) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1120808 · Cited by 936 · see citing works
Atmospheric carbon dioxide variations at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii
Keeling, C. D., Bacastow, R. B., Bainbridge, A. E., Ekdahl, C. A., Guenther, P. R., Waterman, L. S., & Chin, J. F. S. (1976) · Tellus · doi:10.1111/j.2153-3490.1976.tb00701.x · Cited by 794 · see citing works
Severinghaus, J. P., Sowers, T., Brook, E. J., Alley, R. B., & Bender, M. L. (1998) · Nature · doi:10.1038/34346 · Cited by 715 · see citing works
A 1000-year high precision record of δ13C in atmospheric CO2
Francey, R. J., Allison, C. E., Etheridge, D. M., Trudinger, C. M., Enting, I. G., Leuenberger, M., Langenfelds, R. L., Michel, E., & Steele, L. (1999) · Tellus B · doi:10.3402/tellusb.v51i2.16269 · Cited by 707 · see citing works
A Transient Rise in Tropical Sea Surface Temperature During the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum
Zachos, J. C., Wara, M. W., Bohaty, S. M., Delaney, M. L., Petrizzo, M. R., Brill, A., Bralower, T. J., & Premoli-Silva, I. (2003) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1090110 · Cited by 704 · see citing works
MacFarling Meure, C., Etheridge, D., Trudinger, C., Steele, P., Langenfelds, R., van Ommen, T., Smith, A., & Elkins, J. (2006) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2006gl026152 · Cited by 674 · see citing works
Rates of change in natural and anthropogenic radiative forcing over the past 20,000 years
Joos, F., & Spahni, R. (2008) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0707386105 · Cited by 603 · see citing works
Etheridge, D. M., Steele, L., Francey, R. J., & Langenfelds, R. L. (1998) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/98jd00923 · Cited by 600 · see citing works
CO2-forced climate thresholds during the Phanerozoic
Royer, D. (2006) · Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta · doi:10.1016/j.gca.2005.11.031 · Cited by 536 · see citing works
Atmospheric Methane and Nitrous Oxide of the Late Pleistocene from Antarctic Ice Cores
Spahni, R., Chappellaz, J., Stocker, T. F., Loulergue, L., Hausammann, G., Kawamura, K., Flückiger, J., Schwander, J., Raynaud, D., Masson‐Delmotte, V., et al. (2005) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1120132 · Cited by 471 · see citing works
The EDC3 chronology for the EPICA Dome C ice core
Parrenin, F., Barnola, J.-M., Beer, J., Blunier, T., Castellano, E., Chappellaz, J., Dreyfus, G., Fischer, H., Fujita, S., Jouzel, J., et al. (2007) · Climate of the past · doi:10.5194/cp-3-485-2007 · Cited by 451 · see citing works
Self-citationA 1000-year high precision record of delta13C in atmospheric CO2
Francey, R. J., Allison, C. E., Etheridge, D. M., Trudinger, C. M., Enting, I. G., Leuenberger, M., Langenfelds, R. L., Michel, E., & Steele, L. (1999) · Tellus B · doi:10.1034/j.1600-0889.1999.t01-1-00005.x · Cited by 339 · see citing works
Unexpected Changes to the Global Methane Budget over the Past 2000 Years
Ferretti, D. F., Miller, J. B., White, J. W. C., Etheridge, D. M., Lassey, K. R., Lowe, D. C., Meure, C. M. M., Dreier, M. F., Trudinger, C. M., van Ommen, T. D., et al. (2005) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1115193 · Cited by 335 · see citing works
Wolff, E. W., Barbante, C., Becagli, S., et al. (2009) · Quaternary Science Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2009.06.013 · Cited by 301 · see citing works
Self-citationLate Pliocene Greenland glaciation controlled by a decline in atmospheric CO2 levels
Lunt, D. J., Foster, G. L., Haywood, A. M., & Stone, E. J. (2008) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature07223 · Cited by 291 · see citing works
Dust impact on marine biota and atmospheric CO2 during glacial periods
Bopp, L., Kohfeld, K. E., Quéré, C. L., & Aumont, O. (2003) · Paleoceanography · doi:10.1029/2002pa000810 · Cited by 291 · see citing works
Atmospheric CO 2 and Climate on Millennial Time Scales During the Last Glacial Period
Ahn, J., & Brook, E. J. (2008) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1160832 · Cited by 289 · see citing works
Manning, A. C., & Keeling, R. F. (2006) · Tellus B · doi:10.1111/j.1600-0889.2006.00175.x · Cited by 274 · see citing works
Joos, F., Gerber, S., Prentice, I. C., Otto‐Bliesner, B. L., & Valdes, P. J. (2004) · Global Biogeochemical Cycles · doi:10.1029/2003gb002156 · Cited by 263 · see citing works
The early anthropogenic hypothesis: Challenges and responses
Ruddiman, W. F. (2007) · Reviews of Geophysics · doi:10.1029/2006rg000207 · Cited by 258 · see citing works
Age difference between polar ice and the air trapped in its bubbles
Schwander, J., & Stauffer, B. (1984) · Nature · doi:10.1038/311045a0 · Cited by 257 · see citing works
Deep-Sea Temperature and Circulation Changes at the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum
Tripati, A., & Elderfield, H. (2005) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1109202 · Cited by 249 · see citing works
High‐resolution Holocene N2O ice core record and its relationship with CH4 and CO2
Flückiger, J., Monnin, E., Stauffer, B., Schwander, J., Stocker, T. F., Chappellaz, J., Raynaud, D., & Barnola, J.-M. (2002) · Global Biogeochemical Cycles · doi:10.1029/2001gb001417 · Cited by 245 · see citing works
Sedimentary response to Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum carbon release: A model-data comparison
Panchuk, K., Ridgwell, A. J., & Kump, L. R. (2008) · Geology · doi:10.1130/g24474a.1 · Cited by 232 · see citing works
Vostok ice core: climatic response to CO2 and orbital forcing changes over the last climatic cycle
Genthon, G., Barnola, J.-M., Raynaud, D., Lorius, C., Jouzel, J., Barkov, N. I., Korotkevich, Y. S., & Kotlyakov, V. M. (1987) · Nature · doi:10.1038/329414a0 · Cited by 227 · see citing works
Brovkin, V. A., Ganopolski, A., Archer, D. E., & Rahmstorf, S. (2007) · Paleoceanography · doi:10.1029/2006pa001380 · Cited by 220 · see citing works
Stable isotope constraints on Holocene carbon cycle changes from an Antarctic ice core
Elsig, J., Schmitt, J., Leuenberger, D., Schneider, R., Eyer, M., Leuenberger, M., Joos, F., Fischer, H., & Stocker, T. F. (2009) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature08393 · Cited by 219 · see citing works
Atmospheric CO2 concentration from 60 to 20 kyr BP from the Taylor Dome Ice Core, Antarctica
Indermuehle, A., Monnin, E., Stauffer, B., Stocker, T. F., & Wahlen, M. (2000) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/1999gl010960 · Cited by 208 · see citing works
Late Quaternary Atmospheric CH 4 Isotope Record Suggests Marine Clathrates Are Stable
Sowers, T. (2006) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1121235 · Cited by 199 · see citing works
N2O and CH4 variations during the last glacial epoch: Insight into global processes
Flückiger, J., Blunier, T., Stauffer, B., Chappellaz, J., Spahni, R., Kawamura, K., Schwander, J., Stocker, T. F., & Dahl‐Jensen, D. (2004) · Global Biogeochemical Cycles · doi:10.1029/2003gb002122 · Cited by 185 · see citing works
Modeling air movement and bubble trapping in firn
Trudinger, C. M., Enting, I. G., Etheridge, D. M., et al. (1997) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/96jd03382 · Cited by 174 · see citing works
Changing boreal methane sources and constant biomass burning during the last termination
Fischer, H., Behrens, M., Böck, M., Richter, U., Schmitt, J. H. M. M., Loulergue, L., Chappellaz, J., Spahni, R., Blunier, T., Leuenberger, M., et al. (2008) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature06825 · Cited by 174 · see citing works
Castellano, E., Becagli, S., Hansson, M., et al. (2005) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2004jd005259 · Cited by 148 · see citing works
Glacial-interglacial variability in atmospheric CO2
Kohfeld, K. E., & Ridgwell, A. J. (2009) · Geophysical monograph · doi:10.1029/2008gm000845 · Cited by 147 · see citing works
A tentative chronology for the EPICA Dome Concordia Ice Core
Schwander, J., Jouzel, J., Hammer, C. U., Petit, J., Udisti, R., & Wolff, E. W. (2001) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2000gl011981 · Cited by 133 · see citing works
Self-citationNew constraints on the gas age-ice age difference along the EPICA ice cores, 0–50 kyr
Loulergue, L., Parrenin, F., Blunier, T., Barnola, J.-M., Spahni, R., Schilt, A., RAISBECK, G. M., & Chappellaz, J. (2007) · Climate of the past · doi:10.5194/cp-3-527-2007 · Cited by 130 · see citing works
The Holocene CO2 rise: Anthropogenic or natural?
Broecker, W. S., & Stocker, T. F. (2006) · Eos · doi:10.1029/2006eo030002 · Cited by 116 · see citing works
Siegenthaler, U., Monnin, E., Kawamura, K., Spahni, R., Schwander, J., Stauffer, B., Stocker, T. F., Barnola, J.-M., & Fischer, H. (2005) · Tellus B · doi:10.1111/j.1600-0889.2005.00131.x · Cited by 115 · see citing works
The Isotopic Composition of Methane in Polar Ice Cores
Craig, H., Chou, C. C. ‐., Welhan, J. A., Stevens, C. M., & Engelkemeir, A. G. (1988) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.242.4885.1535 · Cited by 114 · see citing works
14 CH 4 Measurements in Greenland Ice: Investigating Last Glacial Termination CH 4 Sources
Petrenko, V. V., Smith, A. M., II, Brook, E. J., et al. (2009) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1168909 · Cited by 95 · see citing works
Tschumi, J., & Stauffer, B. (2000) · Journal of Glaciology · doi:10.3189/172756500781833359 · Cited by 92 · see citing works
Processes affecting the CO2 concentrations measured in Greenland ice
Anklin, M., Barnola, J.-M., Schwander, J., Stauffer, B., & Raynaud, D. (1995) · Tellus B · doi:10.3402/tellusb.v47i4.16061 · Cited by 90 · see citing works
Holocene carbon cycle dynamics
Kleinen, T., Brovkin, V. A., von Bloh, W., et al. (2010) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2009gl041391 · Cited by 81 · see citing works
Ice core evidence for the extent of past atmospheric CO2 change due to iron fertilisation
Röthlisberger, R., Bigler, M., Wolff, E. W., et al. (2004) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2004gl020338 · Cited by 74 · see citing works
Self-citationThe Southern Hemisphere at glacial terminations: insights from the Dome C ice core
Röthlisberger, R., Manfred Mudelsee, A., Bigler, M., de Angelis, M., Fischer, H., Hansson, M., Lambert, F., Masson‐Delmotte, V., Sime, L. C., Udisti, R., et al. (2008) · Climate of the past · doi:10.5194/cp-4-345-2008 · Cited by 68 · see citing works
Self-citationAir bubbles and Clathrate hydrates in the transition zone of the NGRIP Deep Ice Core
Kipfstuhl, S., Pauer, F., Kuhs, W. F., et al. (2001) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/1999gl006094 · Cited by 65 · see citing works
Orbital and millenial antarctic climate variability over the last 800 000 years
Jouzel, J., & Tison, J. (2006) · Dépôt institutionnel de l'Université libre de Bruxelles (Université Libre de Bruxelles) · Cited by 56 · see citing works
Methane and nitrous oxide in the ice core record
Wolff, E. W., & Spahni, R. (2007) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences · doi:10.1098/rsta.2007.2044 · Cited by 42 · see citing works
Self-citationA note on the relationship between ice core methane concentrations and insolation
Schmidt, G. A., Shindell, D. T., & Harder, S. (2004) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2004gl021083 · Cited by 37 · see citing works
Nisbet, E. G., & Chappellaz, J. (2009) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1172001 · Cited by 34 · see citing works
Güllük, T., Slemr, F., & Stauffer, B. (1998) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/98jd00686 · Cited by 33 · see citing works
Nisbet, E. G., Jones, S. M., Maclennan, J., et al. (2009) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/ngeo454 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
Cited by
Sorted by citations
The Anthropocene is functionally and stratigraphically distinct from the Holocene
Waters, C. N., Zalasiewicz, J., Summerhayes, C., Barnosky, A. D., Poirier, C., Gałuszka, A., Cearreta, A., Edgeworth, M., Ellis, E. C., Ellis, M., et al. (2016) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aad2622 · Cited by 2,375 · see citing works
- Authors
- Wolff, E. W.
- Affiliations
- British Antarctic Survey (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Wolff, Eric W.
- ORCID
- Wolff, Eric W.
- Venue
- Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences
- Publisher
- The Royal Society
- Published
- 2011-05-28
- Volume
- 369
- Issue
- 1943
- Pages
- 2133-2147
- ISSN
- 1364-503X (ISSN-L)
- 1471-2962
- OpenAlex
- W2096143282
- Cited by
- 68
- References
- 64
- Citations by year
- 2024: 4 · 2021: 17 · 2019: 14 · 2018: 5 · 2017: 4 · 2016: 5 · 2015: 7 · 2014: 2 · 2013: 5 · 2012: 3
- FWCI
- 2.29
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- NERC Open Research Archive (Natural Environment Research Council) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Natural Environment Research Council (NE/E007600/1, bas0100024)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Keywords
- greenhouse gases, ice core records, atmospheric CO2, methane, glacial-interglacial cycles, carbon cycle feedbacks, paleoclimate, carbon release, Earth system dynamics
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
