The DOI matches its Crossref record; 2 of the 2 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Resilience indicators: prospects and limitations for early warnings of regime shifts
Open accessAbstract
In the vicinity of tipping points—or more precisely bifurcation points—ecosystems recover slowly from small perturbations. Such slowness may be interpreted as a sign of low resilience in the sense that the ecosystem could easily be tipped through a critical transition into a contrasting state. Indicators of this phenomenon of ‘critical slowing down (CSD)’ include a rise in temporal correlation and variance. Such indicators of CSD can provide an early warning signal of a nearby tipping point. Or, they may offer a possibility to rank reefs, lakes or other ecosystems according to their resilience. The fact that CSD may happen across a wide range of complex ecosystems close to tipping points implies a powerful generality. However, indicators of CSD are not manifested in all cases where regime shifts occur. This is because not all regime shifts are associated with tipping points. Here, we review the exploding literature about this issue to provide guidance on what to expect and what not to expect when it comes to the CSD-based early warning signals for critical transitions.
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Citations
Cites
Early-warning signals for critical transitions
Scheffer, M., Bascompte, J., Brock, W. A., Brovkin, V., Carpenter, S. R., Dakos, V., Held, H., van Nes, E. H., Rietkerk, M., & Sugihara, G. (2009) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature08227 · Cited by 4,854
Self-citationRegime shifts in ecological systems can occur with no warning
Hastings, A., & Wysham, D. B. (2010) · Ecology Letters · doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2010.01439.x · Cited by 338
Cited by
Social tipping dynamics for stabilizing Earth’s climate by 2050
Otto, I. M., Donges, J. F., Cremades, R., Bhowmik, A., Hewitt, R. J., Lucht, W., Rockström, J., Allerberger, F., McCaffrey, M., Doe, S. S. P., et al. (2020) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1900577117 · Cited by 958
Data based identification and prediction of nonlinear and complex dynamical systems
Wang, W.-X., Lai, Y.-C., & Grebogi, C. (2016) · Physics Reports · doi:10.1016/j.physrep.2016.06.004 · Cited by 299
Deep learning for early warning signals of tipping points
Bury, T. M., Sujith, R. I., Pavithran, I., Scheffer, M., Lenton, T. M., Anand, M., & Bauch, C. T. (2021) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2106140118 · Cited by 284
“A clear trend in variance or lag-1 AC is taken to provide an early warning signal of an upcoming state transition (32).”
BackgroundSelf-citationA unifying framework for studying and managing climate-driven rates of ecological change
Williams, J. W., Ordonez, A., & Svenning, J.-C. (2020) · Nature Ecology & Evolution · doi:10.1038/s41559-020-01344-5 · Cited by 135
Dai, L., Korolev, K. S., & Gore, J. (2015) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1418415112 · Cited by 78
Metadata
- Authors
- Dakos, V., Carpenter, S. R., van Nes, E. H., & Scheffer, M.
- Venue
- Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
- Publisher
- The Royal Society
- Published
- 2015-01-05
- Volume
- 370
- Issue
- 1659
- Pages
- 20130263
- ISSN
- 0962-8436 (ISSN-L)
- 1471-2970
- OpenAlex
- W2143222716
- Cited by
- 578
- References
- 2
- FWCI
- 26.86
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
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