Social tipping dynamics for stabilizing Earth’s climate by 2050
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Significance: Achieving a rapid global decarbonization to stabilize the climate critically depends on activating contagious and fast-spreading processes of social and technological change within the next few years. Drawing on expert elicitation, an expert workshop, and a review of literature, which provides a comprehensive analysis on this topic, we propose concrete interventions to induce positive social tipping dynamics and a rapid global transformation to carbon-neutral societies. These social tipping interventions comprise removing fossil-fuel subsidies and incentivizing decentralized energy generation, building carbon-neutral cities, divesting from assets linked to fossil fuels, revealing the moral implications of fossil fuels, strengthening climate education and engagement, and disclosing greenhouse gas emissions information.
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It remains unknown whether human social dynamics will yield rapid and effective collective behavioral responses to global challenges.
“yet it remains unknown whether human social dynamics will yield such responses”
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- Authors
- Otto, I. M., Donges, J. F., Cremades, R., Bhowmik, A., Hewitt, R. J., Lucht, W., Rockström, J., Allerberger, F., McCaffrey, M., Doe, S. S. P., Lenferna, A., Morán, N., van Vuuren, D. P., & Schellnhuber, H. J.
- Affiliations
- Leibniz Association (DE)
- Stockholm Resilience Centre (SE)
- Climate Service Center (DE)
- James Hutton Institute (GB)
- Universität Innsbruck (AT)
- UN Climate Change community for Education, Communication and Outreach Stakeholders (ECOS), 3046 Kisbágyon, Hungary;
- GeoSustainability Consulting, Adabraka-Accra, Ghana;
- University of Washington (US)
- Germinando Sociedad Cooperativa Madrid, 28012 Madrid, Spain;
- Climate, Air and Energy, PBL Netherlands Environmental Agency, 2594 AV Den Haag, The Netherlands;
- Corresponding author
- Otto, Ilona M.
- Donges, Jonathan F.
- Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim
- ORCID
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2020-01-21
- Volume
- 117
- Issue
- 5
- Pages
- 2354-2365
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- PMC
- PMC7007533
- OpenAlex
- W3002016767
- Cited by
- 958
- References
- 167
- Citations by year
- 2026: 106 · 2025: 137 · 2024: 189 · 2023: 177 · 2022: 166 · 2021: 125 · 2020: 51 · 2016: 6
- FWCI
- 48.23
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Socio-Environmental Systems Modeling (acceptedVersion)
- Diva portal (Dalarna University Library) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Utrecht University Repository (Utrecht University) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- RENATE (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Sustainability and Climate Change Governance
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Geoengineering
- Keywords
- social tipping points, climate change mitigation, Paris Agreement, carbon neutrality, greenhouse gas emissions reduction, fossil fuel subsidies, decentralized energy generation, carbon-neutral cities, fossil fuel divestment, climate change education, emissions disclosure, social norms, expert elicitation
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
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