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Infectious disease and group size: more than just a numbers game
Open accessAbstract
Increased risk of infectious disease is assumed to be a major cost of group living, yet empirical evidence for this effect is mixed. We studied whether larger social groups are more subdivided structurally. If so, the social subdivisions that form in larger groups may act as barriers to the spread of infection, weakening the association between group size and infectious disease. To investigate this ‘social bottleneck’ hypothesis, we examined the association between group size and four network structure metrics in 43 vertebrate and invertebrate species. We focused on metrics involving modularity, clustering, distance and centralization. In a meta-analysis of intraspecific variation in social networks, modularity showed positive associations with network size, with a weaker but still positive effect in cross-species analyses. Network distance also showed a positive association with group size when using intraspecific variation. We then used a theoretical model to explore the effects of subgrouping relative to other effects that influence disease spread in socially structured populations. Outbreaks reached higher prevalence when groups were larger, but subgrouping reduced prevalence. Subgrouping also acted as a ‘brake’ on disease spread between groups. We suggest research directions to understand the conditions under which larger groups become more subdivided, and to devise new metrics that account for subgrouping when investigating the links between sociality and infectious disease risk.
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“High-density living and increased contact can increase pathogen transmission rates among hosts (Nunn et al. 2015).”
From Red fox viromes in urban and rural landscapes (2020) · cites this paper as Nunn et al. 2015
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BackgroundFerreira, S. C. M., Hofer, H., de Carvalho, L. M., & East, M. L. (2019) · Ecology and Evolution · doi:10.1002/ece3.5431 · Cited by 23
Larger, more connected societies of ants have a higher prevalence of viruses
Brahma, A., Leon, R., Hernández, G. L., & Wurm, Y. (2021) · Molecular Ecology · doi:10.1111/mec.16284 · Cited by 19
Hierarchical networks of food exchange in the black garden ant Lasius niger
Quque, M., Bles, O., Bénard, A., Héraud, A., Meunier, B., Criscuolo, F., Deneubourg, J., & Sueur, C. (2020) · Insect Science · doi:10.1111/1744-7917.12792 · Cited by 19
“We expected colony size to affect the network topology, as previous studies have shown that centralization and modularity increases with colony size (Pasquaretta et al., 2014; Nunn et al., 2015).”
BackgroundResultWhite, L. A., Siva-Jothy, J. A., Craft, M. E., & Vale, P. F. (2020) · Proceedings of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences · doi:10.1098/rspb.2020.1653 · Cited by 14
Cowl, V. B., Jensen, K., Lea, J. M. D., Walker, S. L., & Shultz, S. (2020) · International Journal of Primatology · doi:10.1007/s10764-020-00139-6 · Cited by 18
Franz, M., Kramer-Schadt, S., Greenwood, A., & Courtiol, A. (2018) · Functional Ecology · doi:10.1111/1365-2435.13149 · Cited by 18
Infectious Disease and Grouping Patterns in Mule Deer
Salazar, M. F. M., Waldner, C., Stookey, J., & Bollinger, T. (2016) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0150830 · Cited by 18
“However, empirical evidence for this feature is mixed [4, 15], and the relationships between epidemiological and ecological processes is intricate [16].”
BackgroundLocalized removal affects white‐tailed deer space use and contacts
Tosa, M. I., Schauber, E., & Nielsen, C. (2017) · doi:10.1002/jwmg.21176 · Cited by 18
“Social behavior shapes contact patterns and, as a result, disease transmission opportunities within host populations (Anderson et al. 1986, Altizer et al. 2003, Nunn et al. 2015).”
BackgroundComparative approaches in social network ecology
Albery, G. F., Bansal, S., & Silk, M. J. (2023) · Ecology Letters · doi:10.1111/ele.14345 · Cited by 20
Pathogens Shape Sex Differences in Mammalian Aging
Tidière, M., Badruna, A., Fouchet, D., Gaillard, J., Lemaitre, J., & Pontier, D. (2020) · Trends in Parasitology · doi:10.1016/j.pt.2020.05.004 · Cited by 17
“Among these traits, variation in host body size [44], mating system and sexual size dimorphism [42], MHC allelic diversity [45], geographical range [46], social group size [47], population density [48], and phylogeny [6,41] have been identified as playing a role.”
BackgroundDisease transmission in animal transfer networks
Dejene, S. W., Prins, H. H. T., HEITKÖNIG, I. M. A., & de Boer, W. F. (2016) · Preventive Veterinary Medicine · doi:10.1016/j.prevetmed.2016.12.017 · Cited by 26
“Network analysis has become increasingly popular to examine elationships between host contact patterns and disease trans- ission dynamics (Lindstrom et al., 2012; Makagon et al., 2012; anderWaal et al., 2013b; Nunn et al., 2015).”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialKauffman, K., Werner, C. S., Titcomb, G., Pender, M., Rabezara, J. Y., Herrera, J., Shapiro, J., Solis, A., Soarimalala, V., Tortosa, P., et al. (2022) · Journal of the Royal Society Interface · doi:10.1098/rsif.2021.0690 · Cited by 16
Self-citationHuman sickness detection is not dependent on cultural experience
Arshamian, A., Sundelin, T., Wnuk, E., O'Meara, C., Burenhult, N., Rodríguez, G. G., Lekander, M., Olsson, M., Lasselin, J., Axelsson, J., et al. (2021) · Proceedings of the Royal Society B · doi:10.1098/rspb.2021.0922 · Cited by 16
Keiser, C. N., Pinter‐Wollman, N., Ziemba, M. J., Kothamasu, K. S., & Pruitt, J. N. (2017) · Journal of Animal Ecology · doi:10.1111/1365-2656.12729 · Cited by 36
“We found that network modularity increased with group size, a trend commonly reported and often suggested to reduce parasite transmission in larger groups (Nunn et al., 2015; Sah et al., 2017).”
BackgroundZoonotic Blood-Borne Pathogens in Non-Human Primates in the Neotropical Region: A Systematic Review
Carrillo-Bilbao, G. A., Martin-Solano, S., & Saegerman, C. (2021) · Pathogens · doi:10.3390/pathogens10081009 · Cited by 20
How disease constrains the evolution of social systems
Udiani, O., & Fefferman, N. (2020) · Proceedings of the Royal Society B · doi:10.1098/rspb.2020.1284 · Cited by 15
“In a society where individuals associate in social groups, forming stable subpopulations, the likelihood of a locally transmitted infection spreading globally is low [14,29,30].”
BackgroundQuality, quantity, and the adaptive function of social relationships
Moor, D. D., & Brent, L. J. N. (2025) · Trends in Ecology & Evolution · doi:10.1016/j.tree.2025.09.004 · Cited by 18
Functional traits linked to pathogen prevalence in wild bee communities
Figueroa, L., Compton, S., Grab, H., & Mcart, S. (2021) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-021-87103-3 · Cited by 14
Mejía-Salazar, M. F., Goldizen, A., Menz, C., Dwyer, R. G., Blomberg, S., Waldner, C., Cullingham, C., & Bollinger, T. (2017) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0175385 · Cited by 14
Pandey, A., Wojan, C., Feuka, A. B., Craft, M. E., Manlove, K., & Pepin, K. (2024) · Philosophical Transactions B · doi:10.1098/rstb.2022.0532 · Cited by 13
Primate Infectious Disease Ecology: Insights and Future Directions at the Human-Macaque Interface
Balasubramaniam, K. N., Sueur, C., Huffman, M. A., & MacIntosh, A. J. J. (2019) · Fascinating life sciences · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-27920-2_13 · Cited by 19
Ketola, T., Briga, M., Honkola, T., & Lummaa, V. (2021) · Proceedings of the Royal Society B · doi:10.1098/rspb.2021.0356 · Cited by 12
“…size of a town is positively linked with the risk of death from infectious diseases [4 – 6], and (ii) if the division into subgroups, such as number of households and villages within a given town, decreases the number of casualties as is suggested by the ‘ social bottle-neck hypothesis ’ [2].”
BackgroundResultInfluentialArcher, E. K., Bennett, N., Faulkes, C., & Lutermann, H. (2015) · Oecologia · doi:10.1007/s00442-015-3494-0 · Cited by 12
“…study on the same primate population (Chapman et al. 2012), several other studies in primates and carnivores have provided theoretical and empirical evidence for a role of intergroup contact rates for endoparasite transmission (Walsh et al. 2009; Drewe 2010; Nunn et al. 2015; Rimbach et al. 2015).”
BackgroundHeat stress conditions affect the social network structure of free‐ranging sheep
Borthwick, Z., Quiring, K., Griffith, S., & Leu, S. (2023) · bioRxiv · doi:10.1101/2023.02.26.530064 · Cited by 10
“Regardless, a well-connected social network with low modularity also improves the spread of pathogens and parasites, which has neg - ative well-being and health consequences (Griffin & Nunn, 2012; Nunn et al., 2015 ).”
BackgroundHow Emergent Social Patterns in Allogrooming Combat Parasitic Infections
Wilson, S. N., Sindi, S. S., Brooks, H. C., Hohn, M. E., Price, C. R., Radunskaya, A., Williams, N. D., & Fefferman, N. (2020) · Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution · doi:10.3389/fevo.2020.00054 · Cited by 10
“, modularity, clustering, host density, and mating systems) (Altizer et al., 2003b; Nunn et al., 2015), the strategies proposed in the current work are not meant to capture meaningful, real-world behaviors.”
BackgroundMulti-level societies: different tasks at different social levels
Camerlenghi, E., & Papageorgiou, D. (2025) · Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · doi:10.1098/rstb.2023.0274 · Cited by 9
“Additionally, large social unit size poses a greater risk of infectious disease [78] and is linked to higher inequality of division of labour among members of the same social unit [79].”
Variation in local population size predicts social network structure in wild songbirds
Beck, K., Farine, D., Firth, J., & Sheldon, B. (2023) · Journal of Animal Ecology · doi:10.1111/1365-2656.14015 · Cited by 9
“Interspecies comparisons have also suggested that network fragmentation (modularity) generally increases with increasing group size (Nunn et al., 2015 ).”
BackgroundDecline and fall: The causes of group failure in cooperatively breeding meerkats
Duncan, C., Manser, M., & Clutton-Brock, T. (2021) · Ecology and Evolution · doi:10.1002/ece3.7655 · Cited by 9
“Moreover, it is hypothesized that the increasingly modular organization of larger groups could reduce disease prevalence (Nunn et al., 2015), with social clustering that could limit disease transmission being reported in meerkats (Drewe et al., 2011).”
BackgroundPoulin, R., & Filion, A. (2021) · Behavioral Ecology and Sociobiology · doi:10.1007/s00265-021-03039-8 · Cited by 9
Linking parasitism to network centrality and the impact of sampling bias in its interpretation
Xu, Z.-H., MacIntosh, A., Castellano-Navarro, A., Macanás-Martínez, E., Suzumura, T., & Duboscq, J. (2021) · bioRxiv · doi:10.1101/2021.06.07.447302 · Cited by 9
“…linked to increased parasitism, although this relationship is not always linear (Freeland, 1976; Altizer et al., 2003; Griffin and Nunn, 2012; Godfrey, 2013; Nunn et al., 2015, 2015; Romano et al., 2016; Rushmore et al., 2017; White et al., 2017; Briard and Ezenwa, 2021; Lucatelli et al., 2021).”
BackgroundSumner, K. M., McCabe, C. M., & Nunn, C. L. (2018) · Behaviour · doi:10.1163/1568539x-00003508 · Cited by 9
Self-citationInhibitory systems in brain evolution: pathways of vulnerability in neurodevelopmental disorders
Hanson, K. L., Greiner, D. M. Z., Schumann, C. M., & Semendeferi, K. (2024) · Brain Behavior and Evolution · doi:10.1159/000540865 · Cited by 5
“…between pathogen-rich environments and high social transmission of behavior and social learning has been demonstrated [167], though some of the risk associated with increased social transmission of behavior and culture may be mitigated by social subgrouping and fi ssion-fusion dynamics [168].”
Primate malarias as a model for cross-species parasite transmission
Voinson, M., Nunn, C. L., & Goldberg, A. (2022) · eLife · doi:10.7554/elife.69628 · Cited by 12
Self-citationWebber, Q., & Wal, E. V. (2020) · Behavioral Ecology and Sociobiology · doi:10.1007/s00265-020-02860-x · Cited by 8
McCabe, C. M., & Nunn, C. L. (2018) · Frontiers in Veterinary Science · doi:10.3389/fvets.2018.00071 · Cited by 8
Self-citationThe natural history of social bonds
Silk, J. (2025) · Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1111/nyas.15318 · Cited by 7
Whittier, C., Nutter, F., Johnson, P. L. F., Cross, P., Lloyd-Smith, J., Slenning, B., & Stoskopf, M. (2021) · American Journal of Primatology · doi:10.1002/ajp.23350 · Cited by 7
“Increased modularity (i.e., separation of social units) has been shown to decrease pathogen spread and result in smaller outbreaks of disease in various wildlife species (Griffin & Nunn, 2012; Kurvers et al., 2014; Nunn et al., 2015; Sah et al., 2017).”
BackgroundYoung, M. J., Silk, M. J., Pritchard, A. J., & Fefferman, N. H. (2022) · Physical review. E · doi:10.1103/physreve.105.044315 · Cited by 6
“Such population level emergence of assortative mixing has important consequences for anticipating the spread of disease in a heterogeneous society, especially as homophily will also increase modularity and alter the dynamics of the spread of both disease and information [55, 56, 57, 7].”
BackgroundSocial group size influences pathogen transmission in salamanders
Ritchie, K. L., Vredenburg, V., Chaukulkar, S., Butler, H., & Zink, A. G. (2021) · Behavioral Ecology and Sociobiology · doi:10.1007/s00265-021-03057-6 · Cited by 7
Scaling of ant colony interaction networks
Toth, J. M., Fewell, J., & Waters, J. S. (2023) · Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution · doi:10.3389/fevo.2022.993627 · Cited by 6
“Notably, highly social insect colonies also show lower modularity than other animal social networks, which are generally built around maintaining individual alliances with local neighbors rather than construction around coordination of work (Waters and Fewell, 2012; Nunn et al., 2015).”
BackgroundSelf-citation
Metadata
- Authors
- Nunn, C. L., Jordán, F., McCabe, C. M., Verdolin, J. L., & Fewell, J. H.
- Affiliations
- Duke University (US)
- University of Trento (IT)
- Harvard University (US)
- Arizona State University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Nunn, Charles L.
- Venue
- Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
- Publisher
- The Royal Society
- Published
- 2015-05-26
- Volume
- 370
- Issue
- 1669
- Pages
- 20140111
- ISSN
- 0962-8436 (ISSN-L)
- 1471-2970
- PMC
- PMC4410377
- OpenAlex
- W1966269069
- Cited by
- 192
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 11 · 2025: 9 · 2024: 16 · 2023: 12 · 2022: 13 · 2021: 27 · 2020: 27 · 2019: 15 · 2018: 26 · 2017: 17 · 2016: 14 · 2015: 5
- FWCI
- 2.50
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics › Animal Behavior and Reproduction
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Applied Mathematics › Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
- Physical Sciences › Physics and Astronomy › Statistical and Nonlinear Physics › Complex Network Analysis Techniques
- Keywords
- infectious diseases, group size, social networks, network modularity, network distance, network centralization, network clustering, disease spread, sociality, animal social structure, vertebrates, invertebrates
- MeSH terms
- Animals, Behavior, Animal, Communicable Diseases, Invertebrates, Models, Biological, Population Density, Risk Factors, Social Behavior, Species Specificity, Vertebrates
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