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Improved Constraints on Primordial Gravitational Waves using Planck , WMAP, and BICEP/ Keck Observations through the 2018 Observing Season

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Ade, P. A. R., Ahmed, Z., Amiri, M., Barkats, D., Thakur, R. Basu, Bischoff, C. A., Beck, D., Bock, J. J. +84 more·2021·Physical Review Letters

Abstract

We present results from an analysis of all data taken by the BICEP2, Keck Array, and BICEP3 CMB polarization experiments up to and including the 2018 observing season. We add additional Keck Array observations at 220 GHz and BICEP3 observations at 95 GHz to the previous 95/150/220 GHz dataset. The Q/U maps now reach depths of 2.8, 2.8, and 8.8 μK_{CMB} arcmin at 95, 150, and 220 GHz, respectively, over an effective area of ≈600 square degrees at 95 GHz and ≈400 square degrees at 150 and 220 GHz. The 220 GHz maps now achieve a signal-to-noise ratio on polarized dust emission exceeding that of Planck at 353 GHz. We take auto- and cross-spectra between these maps and publicly available WMAP and Planck maps at frequencies from 23 to 353 GHz and evaluate the joint likelihood of the spectra versus a multicomponent model of lensed ΛCDM+r+dust+synchrotron+noise. The foreground model has seven parameters, and no longer requires a prior on the frequency spectral index of the dust emission taken from measurements on other regions of the sky. This model is an adequate description of the data at the current noise levels. The likelihood analysis yields the constraint r_{0.05}<0.036 at 95% confidence. Running maximum likelihood search on simulations we obtain unbiased results and find that σ(r)=0.009. These are the strongest constraints to date on primordial gravitational waves.

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Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

The BICEP/Keck collaboration analyzed all BICEP2, Keck Array, and BICEP3 CMB polarization data through the 2018 observing season, combined with WMAP and Planck maps, to constrain primordial gravitational waves. They report the strongest limit to date, \(r_{0.05}<0.036\) at 95% confidence, with no significant evidence for \(r>0\).

Key findings

  • The baseline likelihood gives \(r_{0.05}=0.014^{+0.010}_{-0.011}\) and \(r_{0.05}<0.036\) at 95% confidence; simulations give \(\sigma(r)=0.009\) and a median 95% upper limit of \(r_{0.05}<0.019\).
  • Foreground parameters: \(A_{d,353}=4.4^{+0.8}_{-0.7}\,\mu\mathrm{K}^2\), \(A_{\mathrm{sync},23}<1.4\,\mu\mathrm{K}^2\) at 95% confidence, and \(\beta_d=1.49^{+0.13}_{-0.12}\); the synchrotron amplitude now peaks at zero.
  • New maps reach depths of 2.8, 2.8, and 8.8 \(\mu\mathrm{K}_{\mathrm{cmb}}\,\mathrm{arcmin}\) at 95, 150, and 220 GHz over effective areas of \(\approx 600\) square degrees at 95 GHz and \(\approx 400\) square degrees at 150 and 220 GHz.
  • The 220 GHz maps achieve signal-to-noise on polarized dust emission exceeding that of Planck at 353 GHz; the maximum-likelihood model has PTE 0.94, and the previous limits improved from \(r_{0.05}<0.12\) (BKP) to \(<0.09\) (BK14) to \(<0.07\) (BK15) to \(<0.036\) (BK18).

Methods

  • Analysis of BICEP2, Keck Array, and BICEP3 CMB polarization data through the 2018 observing season, adding Keck 220 GHz and BICEP3 95 GHz data to the previous 95/150/220 GHz dataset; maps are made into Q/U, purified to B-modes, apodized, Fourier transformed, and used to form auto- and cross-spectra.
  • Joint likelihood uses 66 BB auto- and cross-spectra between BICEP/Keck maps and WMAP 23/33 GHz plus Planck 30, 44, 143, 217, and 353 GHz maps, over \(20<\ell<330\) with 9 bandpowers per spectrum.
  • The model is lensed \(\Lambda\)CDM + \(r\) + dust + synchrotron + noise with eight parameters, evaluated with Hamimeche-Lewis likelihood and CosmoMC MCMC; the dust frequency spectral index prior is removed, and the bandpower covariance matrix comes from 499 signal-and-noise simulations.

Limitations

  • The paper states that dust decorrelation and foreground complexity more generally “will remain a serious concern” as sensitivity improves, and that the sample variance of the lensing component already dominates \(\sigma(r)\).
  • The paper states that the baseline does not allow the dust decorrelation parameter \(\Delta_d\) to vary freely because it is biasing with respect to \(r\); it also notes that including EE spectra assumes an exact EE/BB ratio of 2 and “should not be overinterpreted.”
  • The paper states residual uncertainties from point-source polarized flux may yield an upward bias on \(r\) of \(1-3\times10^{-3}\), and noise-bias imperfections may yield a downward bias of \(2\times10^{-3}\); these are subdominant to the statistical uncertainty.
  • Evident from the text: the analysis fixes the tensor spectral index \(n_t=0\), assumes a power-law dust spatial spectrum and Gaussian dust fluctuations, and relies on external WMAP/Planck data for foreground separation.

Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.

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Crossref · 10.1103/physrevlett.127.151301

Cites

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  • Findingreasoning
    § BICEP / Keck XIII: Improved Constraints on Primordial Gravitational Waves using Planck , WMAP, and BICEP/ Keck Observations through the 2018 Observing Season · p. 5

    The BK18 result r_{0.05}<0.036 represents a fractional improvement equivalent to the two previous steps combined.

    “The BK18 result described in this letter, r 0 . 05 &lt; 0 . 036, represents a fractional improvement equivalent to the two previous steps combined.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Findingown data
    § BICEP / Keck XIII: Improved Constraints on Primordial Gravitational Waves using Planck , WMAP, and BICEP/ Keck Observations through the 2018 Observing Season · p. 1

    The foreground model is an adequate description of the data at the current noise levels.

    “This model is an adequate description of the data at the current noise levels.”
    • Also stated in: § BICEP / Keck XIII: Improved Constraints on Primordial Gravitational Waves using Planck , WMAP, and BICEP/ Keck Observations through the 2018 Observing Season · p. 4 · plain
      “This model is an acceptable fit to the data with the probability to exceed (PTE) the observed value of χ 2 being 0.94.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: The synchrotron frequency spectrum is a simple power law A_sync ∝ ν^β_s.
    • The authors state this as an assumption: The dust spatial power spectrum is a power law D_ℓ ∝ ℓ^α_d.
    • The authors state this as an assumption: The synchrotron spatial power spectrum is a power law D_ℓ ∝ ℓ^α_s.
  • Findingown data
    § BICEP / Keck XIII: Improved Constraints on Primordial Gravitational Waves using Planck , WMAP, and BICEP/ Keck Observations through the 2018 Observing Season · p. 1

    The 220 GHz maps achieve a signal-to-noise on polarized dust emission exceeding that of Planck at 353 GHz.

    “The 220GHz maps now achieve a signal-to-noise on polarized dust emission exceeding that of Planck at 353 GHz.”
    • Also stated in: § BICEP / Keck XIII: Improved Constraints on Primordial Gravitational Waves using Planck , WMAP, and BICEP/ Keck Observations through the 2018 Observing Season · p. 6 · plain
      “The signal-to-noise on polarized dust emission of our 220 GHz band is now considerably higher than that of the Planck 353 GHz band-i.e. the 220 × 220 noise point is much further below the dust band than the P353 × P353 point.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Findingown data
    § BICEP / Keck XIII: Improved Constraints on Primordial Gravitational Waves using Planck , WMAP, and BICEP/ Keck Observations through the 2018 Observing Season · p. 3

    For r, the zero-to-peak likelihood ratio is 0.46.

    “For r , the zero-to-peak likelihood ratio is 0.46.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Findingown data
    § BICEP / Keck XIII: Improved Constraints on Primordial Gravitational Waves using Planck , WMAP, and BICEP/ Keck Observations through the 2018 Observing Season · p. 1

    The likelihood analysis yields the constraint r_{0.05} < 0.036 at 95% confidence.

    “The likelihood analysis yields the constraint r 0 . 05 < 0 . 036 at 95% confidence.”
    • Also stated in: § BICEP / Keck XIII: Improved Constraints on Primordial Gravitational Waves using Planck , WMAP, and BICEP/ Keck Observations through the 2018 Observing Season · p. 1 · plain
      “r 0 . 05 < 0 . 036 at 95% confidence”
    • Also stated in: § ACKNOWLEDGMENTS · p. 7 · plain
      “The upper limit on the tensor-to-scalar ratio tightens to r 0 . 05 &lt; 0 . 036 at 95% confidence.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims. 53
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 34
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § BICEP / Keck XIII: Improved Constraints on Primordial Gravitational Waves using Planck , WMAP, and BICEP/ Keck Observations through the 2018 Observing Season · p. 1

    The maximum likelihood search on simulations gives σ(r)=0.009 for BK18, reduced from σ(r)=0.020 for BK15.

    “Running maximum likelihood search on simulations we obtain unbiased results and find that σ ( r ) = 0 . 009.”
    • Also stated in: § BICEP / Keck XIII: Improved Constraints on Primordial Gravitational Waves using Planck , WMAP, and BICEP/ Keck Observations through the 2018 Observing Season · p. 5 · plain
      “The distributions of maximum likelihood r values in simulations where the true value of r is zero gave σ ( r 0 . 05 ) = 0 . 020 for BK15 which is reduced to σ ( r 0 . 05 ) = 0 . 009 for BK18”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § BICEP / Keck XIII: Improved Constraints on Primordial Gravitational Waves using Planck , WMAP, and BICEP/ Keck Observations through the 2018 Observing Season · p. 4

    The BK18 data shrinks the contours in the vertical r direction while the BAO data shrinks the contours in the horizontal n_s direction and shifts the centroid slightly to the right.

    “The BK18 data shrinks the contours in the vertical ( r ) direction while the BAO data shrinks the contours in the horizontal ( n s ) direction and shifts the centroid slightly to the right.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § BICEP / Keck XIII: Improved Constraints on Primordial Gravitational Waves using Planck , WMAP, and BICEP/ Keck Observations through the 2018 Observing Season · p. 1

    The Q/U maps reach depths of 2.8, 2.8, and 8.8 μK_cmb arcmin at 95, 150, and 220 GHz respectively over an effective area of ≈600 square degrees at 95 GHz and ≈400 square degrees at 150 and 220 GHz.

    “The Q/U maps now reach depths of 2.8, 2.8 and 8.8 µ K cmb arcmin at 95, 150 and 220 GHz respectively over an effective area of ≈ 600 square degrees at 95 GHz and ≈ 400 square degrees at 150 & 220GHz.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingown data
    § BICEP / Keck XIII: Improved Constraints on Primordial Gravitational Waves using Planck , WMAP, and BICEP/ Keck Observations through the 2018 Observing Season · p. 4

    The value of A_d is very similar when evaluated over the larger BICEP3 sky coverage region and the smaller BICEP2/Keck sky region.

    “We also find that the value of A d is very similar when evaluated over the larger BICEP3 sky coverage region and the smaller BICEP2 / Keck sky region.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § BICEP / Keck XIII: Improved Constraints on Primordial Gravitational Waves using Planck , WMAP, and BICEP/ Keck Observations through the 2018 Observing Season · p. 2

    BK18 improves the constraint on the tensor-to-scalar ratio r by more than a factor of two over the previous result, to r_{0.05}<0.036 at 95% confidence.

    “This improves the constraint on primordial gravitational waves parameterized by the tensor-to-scalar ratio r by more than a factor of two over our previous result to r 0 . 05 < 0 . 036 at 95% confidence, setting important additional limits on inflationary models.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § BICEP / Keck XIII: Improved Constraints on Primordial Gravitational Waves using Planck , WMAP, and BICEP/ Keck Observations through the 2018 Observing Season · p. 3

    In BK15 the constraint on β_d was prior dominated, but for BK18 the data is able to constrain this parameter almost as well as the prior previously did.

    “In the BK15 analysis the constraint on β d was prior dominated, but for BK18 we see that the data is able to constrain this parameter almost as well as the prior previously did.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § BICEP / Keck XIII: Improved Constraints on Primordial Gravitational Waves using Planck , WMAP, and BICEP/ Keck Observations through the 2018 Observing Season · p. 3

    Compared to BK15, the likelihood curve for r tightens considerably with the peak position shifting down slightly, and the A_d curve tightens slightly.

    “As compared to the previous BK15 analysis, the likelihood curve for r tightens considerably with the peak position shifting down slightly, and the A d curve tightens slightly.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § BICEP / Keck XIII: Improved Constraints on Primordial Gravitational Waves using Planck , WMAP, and BICEP/ Keck Observations through the 2018 Observing Season · p. 4

    Freeing the amplitude of the lensing power gives A_BB_L=1.03^{+0.08}_{-0.09}, and the r constraint hardly changes.

    “Freeing the amplitude of the lensing power we obtain A BB L = 1 . 03 +0 . 08 -0 . 09 , and the r constraint hardly changes.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingcitation
    § BICEP / Keck XIII: Improved Constraints on Primordial Gravitational Waves using Planck , WMAP, and BICEP/ Keck Observations through the 2018 Observing Season · p. 3

    The peak value of β_d selected is very close to the mean value from Planck 2018 analysis of larger regions of sky, β_d=1.53.

    “Interestingly the peak value selected is very close to the mean value from Planck 2018 analysis of larger regions of sky β d = 1 . 53 [24].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [24]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § BICEP / Keck XIII: Improved Constraints on Primordial Gravitational Waves using Planck , WMAP, and BICEP/ Keck Observations through the 2018 Observing Season · p. 3

    The A_sync curve now peaks at zero; the weak evidence for synchrotron seen in BK15 is no longer present.

    “In addition the A sync curve now peaks at zero-the weak evidence for synchrotron we saw in BK15 is no longer present.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingnone given
    § BICEP / Keck XIII: Improved Constraints on Primordial Gravitational Waves using Planck , WMAP, and BICEP/ Keck Observations through the 2018 Observing Season · p. 4

    The 95 GHz B map is approximately equal parts lensed-ΛCDM signal and noise.

    “The 95GHz B map is approximately equal parts lensed-ΛCDM signal and noise.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § 2. Likelihood Variation · p. 18

    The increase of 1.5 in -2 log(L) for the real data when removing synchrotron is smaller than the average increase in simulations, indicating no evidence that synchrotron is present.

    “The increase of 1.5 for the real data is smaller than the average increase in the simulations indicating no evidence that synchrotron is present.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § 2. Likelihood Variation · p. 17

    With a uniform prior on A_BB_L and marginalizing over all other parameters, the BK18 data yield A_BB_L = 1.03 +0.08 -0.09, showing no tension with ΛCDM.

    “With a uniform prior on A BB L (and marginalizing over all other parameters) we obtain A BB L = 1 . 03 +0 . 08 -0 . 09 showing no tension with ΛCDM.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § 2. Likelihood Variation · p. 17

    The r constraint hardly changes when freeing the lensing amplitude because the lensing amplitude preferred by BK18 data is very close to that predicted by Planck 2018 cosmological parameters.

    “The r constraint hardly changes due to the fact that the lensing amplitude prefered by the BK18 data is very close to that predicted by the Planck 2018 cosmological parameters.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § 1. Likelihood Evolution · p. 15

    Switching to the updated Planck 2018 lensing spectrum shifts the r constraint slightly up, indicating a marginally relevant change at BK18 sensitivity levels.

    “In Fig. 17 switching to the updated Planck 2018 spectrum corresponds to the transition from red to black-the r constraint shifts slightly up indicating that this is a marginally relevant change at BK18 sensitivity levels.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: The power spectrum of the polarized dust emission in the BICEP/Keck field follows a power law.
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § Appendix A: Maps · p. 10

    BICEP3 maps a larger area of sky than BICEP2/Keck because BICEP3 has a larger instantaneous field of view.

    “Due to the larger instantaneous field of view BICEP3 naturally maps a larger area of sky.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § 2. Likelihood Variation · p. 18

    Removing synchrotron from the fit corresponds to a nominal reduction of 4 parameters, but the increase in mean -2 log(L) for simulations suggests only 2.5 effective free parameters.

    “Removing synchrotron from the fit (i.e. fixing As = 0, β s = 0, α s = 0 and ϵ = 0) corresponds to a nominal reduction in the number of fit parameters of 4, but the increase in the mean -2 log( L ) for the simulations (which contain no synchrotron) suggests only 2.5 effective free parameters.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § Appendix D: Multi Frequency Spectra · p. 12

    For the 594 bandpowers shown in Fig. 15, the maximum likelihood model gives χ2 = 541.6 with a PTE versus simulations of 0.94.

    “For the 9 × 66 = 594 bandpowers shown in Fig. 15, χ 2 = ( d -m ) T C -1 ( d -m ) = 541 . 6, where d are the bandpower values, m are the model expectation values, and C is the bandpower covariance matrix for the maximum likelihood model. This has a PTE versus the simulations of 0 . 94.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § 2. Likelihood Variation · p. 17

    Including EE spectra under the assumption that EE/BB ratios for dust and synchrotron are exactly 2 shifts the r peak position up, narrows the A_d curve, and makes the A_sync curve peak strongly away from zero.

    “The effects are similar to those seen in BK15-the r peak position shifts up, the A d curve narrows, and the A sync curve peaks strongly away from zero.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: The EE/BB ratios for dust and synchrotron are both exactly 2.
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § Appendix B: Internal Consistency Tests of New Data · p. 10

    The χ2 and χ jackknife statistics do not have the nominal theory distributions because they are summations of bandpower values that are themselves χ2 rather than Gaussian distributed.

    “The χ 2 and χ jackknife statistics do not actually have the nominal theory distributions since they are summations of bandpower values which are themselves χ 2 rather than Gaussian distributed.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingown data
    § Appendix A: Maps · p. 10

    At 220 GHz, dust contamination becomes comparable in amplitude to the ΛCDM E-modes at the edges of the field.

    “However, at 220 GHz we start to see dust contamination become comparable in amplitude to the ΛCDM E -modes at the edges of the field.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § 2. Likelihood Variation · p. 17

    The peak position of A_d shifts only a very small amount under variations of sky coverage, showing no evidence for variation of the polarized dust amplitude as averaged across the BICEP3 coverage pattern versus the subset BICEP2/Keck field.

    “Interestingly the peak position of A d only shifts a very small amount under these variations showing no evidence for variation of the polarized dust amplitude as averaged across the BICEP3 coverage pattern versus the subset BICEP2 / Keck fi eld.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § 1. Likelihood Evolution · p. 15

    Dropping the β_d prior in the BK18 baseline analysis leaves r and A_sync nearly unchanged.

    “In Fig. 17 dropping the β d prior corresponds to the transition from yellow to red curvesr and A sync show very little change while A d gets just slightly wider.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingown data
    § 2. Likelihood Variation · p. 17

    The BICEP3 sky coverage is larger than the BICEP2/Keck region.

    “As seen in Figures 8 and 9 the BICEP3 sky coverage is larger than the BICEP2 / Keck region.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingown data
    § Appendix D: Multi Frequency Spectra · p. 12

    The sum of normalized deviations χ gives a PTE versus simulations of 0.22.

    “If instead we take the sum of the normalized deviations χ = ∑ (( d -m ) /e ) where e is the square-root of the diagonal of C , we find that the PTE versus the simulations is 0.22.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § 1. Likelihood Evolution · p. 15

    Residual uncertainty in the Planck 2018 cosmological parameters leads to a residual uncertainty in the predicted ΛCDM lensing BB spectrum of 2.2% within 20 < l < 500, with a distribution close to Gaussian.

    “In a simple study we find this to be 2.2% within the multipole range 20 &lt; ℓ &lt; 500 (with a distribution close to Gaussian).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingown data
    § Appendix C: 95 &amp; 220 GHz Spectral Stability · p. 10

    The BK18 220 GHz spectrum is sample variance limited out to l ∼ 200.

    “The upper part of Fig. 14 compares the two BB spectra-a large improvement in sensitivity is again clear, and the BK18 220 GHz spectrum is sample variance limited out to ℓ ∼ 200.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § BICEP / Keck XIII: Improved Constraints on Primordial Gravitational Waves using Planck , WMAP, and BICEP/ Keck Observations through the 2018 Observing Season · p. 4

    The E maps are dominated by ΛCDM signal and are highly correlated across all three bands.

    “The E maps are dominated by ΛCDM signal, and hence are highly correlated across all three bands.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingreasoning
    § Appendix A: Maps · p. 10

    In the T maps, the patterns at 95, 150, and 220 GHz are almost identical because the ΛCDM signal is dominant.

    “Comparing the three frequencies we see almost identical patterns in the T maps since ΛCDM signal is dominant.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § 2. Likelihood Variation · p. 17

    Dropping WMAP results in A_sync peaking strongly at zero, whereas dropping LFI results in A_sync peaking well above zero.

    “Dropping WMAP results in A sync peaking strongly at zero whereas dropping LFI results in A sync peaking well above zero.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingnone given
    § 2. Likelihood Variation · p. 17

    For the small field only version, the A_sync peak shifts above zero as it was in BK15.

    “Note that for the small field only version the A sync peak shifts above zero as it was in BK15.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § Appendix A: Maps · p. 10

    In the Q and U maps, the patterns at 95 and 150 GHz are extremely similar and dominated by the ΛCDM E-mode signal.

    “For Q and U the patterns are again extremely similar between 95 and 150 GHz, and dominated by the ΛCDM E -mode signal.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § 2. Likelihood Variation · p. 17

    BICEP/Keck alone constrains A_sync and β_d poorly, with the r constraint peaking hard at zero.

    “BICEP/ Keck alone (blue) constrains A sync and β d poorly with the r constraint peaking hard at zero.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingown data
    § 2. Likelihood Variation · p. 18

    The absolute goodness-of-fit of the baseline model to the data is adequate.

    “In Appendix D above we saw that the absolute goodness-of-fit of the baseline model to the data is adequate.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § 1. Likelihood Evolution · p. 14

    Switching from BK15 to BK18 data makes a substantial difference: the r constraint narrows and its peak position shifts down.

    “We next switch from the BK15 data set to the BK18 one-i.e. including the improved sensitivity at 220 GHz and the improved sensitivity and sky area at 95 GHz (magenta to yellow). This makes a substantial difference: the r constraint narrows and its peak position shifts down.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: The power spectrum of the polarized dust emission in the BICEP/Keck field follows a power law.
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingown data
    § 1. Likelihood Evolution · p. 14

    Updating COSMOMC from Nov2016 to July2019 makes very little difference to the r constraint.

    “Starting with the BK15 data set we first update the version of COSMOMC from Nov2016 to July2019 (green to magenta) which makes very little difference.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingown data
    § Appendix D: Multi Frequency Spectra · p. 11

    The penalty from using different apodizations in reducing correlations of auto- and cross-spectra is negligible in the current case.

    “Using different apodizations also in principle reduces the correlations of the auto- and cross-spectra which are key to the separation of foreground and CMB signals. However, in the current case the penalty turns out to be negligible.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingcitation
    § 1. Likelihood Evolution · p. 15

    The peak value of β_d = 1.50 selected by the data is close to the mean value from Planck 2018 analysis of larger regions of sky β_d^P = 1.53 ± 0.02.

    “Interestingly the peak value of β d = 1 . 50 selected by our data is close to the mean value from Planck 2018 analysis of larger regions of sky β P d = 1 . 53 ± 0 . 02 [24].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [24]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given
    § Appendix B: Internal Consistency Tests of New Data · p. 10

    The two nominally 220 GHz receivers added before the 2015 season have passbands centered at ≈230 GHz, while the two added before the 2016 season have passbands centered at ≈220 GHz.

    “The two nominally 220 GHz receivers added before the 2015 season actually have passbands centered at ≈ 230 GHz, whereas the two added before the 2016 season have passbands centered at ≈ 220 GHz.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § 2. Likelihood Variation · p. 15

    Allowing the dust decorrelation parameter ∆d to vary freely shifts the r constraint down slightly and the A_sync constraint up slightly.

    “We see that the r constraint shifts down slightly and the A sync constraint shifts up slightly.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § 2. Likelihood Variation · p. 18

    Allowing decorrelation parameter ∆d to vary freely while fixing ε=0 leaves the nominal number of parameters unchanged and hardly changes the mean value of -2 log(L) for the simulations.

    “Allowing decorrelation parameter ∆ d to vary freely while fixing ϵ = 0 leaves the nominal number of parameters unchanged and as expected hardly changes the mean value of -2 log( L ) for the simulations.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § 2. Likelihood Variation · p. 17

    Dropping the 150 and 220 GHz bands does not substantially increase the width of the r constraint, but it does increase the widths of the A_d and β_d constraints.

    “It is very interesting that dropping the 150 and 220 GHz bands does not substantially increase the width of the r constraint, although it is unsurprising that it does increase the widths of the A d and β d constraints.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § Appendix D: Multi Frequency Spectra · p. 13

    Synchrotron is tightly limited in all multipole ranges and not detected in any of them.

    “Synchrotron is tightly limited in all the multipole ranges, and not detected in any of them.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingown data
    § 2. Likelihood Variation · p. 17

    Dropping the other HFI bands makes smaller additional changes.

    “Dropping the other HFI bands makes smaller additional changes (red to green).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § 3. Bandpass Uncertainty · p. 22

    The shifts on dust parameters (A_d and β_d) due to bandpass nuisance parameters are a few percent, and still within statistical uncertainty and upper bounds predicted using maximum likelihood searches on simulations.

    “The shifts on dust parameters ( A d and β d ) are a few percent, and still within statistical uncertainty and upper bounds predicted using maximum likelihood searches on simulations.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § 3. Likelihood Validation · p. 19

    60% of the lensed-ΛCDM+dust+noise simulations peak at zero, and 11% have a lower zero-to-peak ratio than the real data, i.e. show more evidence for r when the true value is zero.

    “We find that 60% of the simulations peak at zero, and 11% have a lower zero-to-peak ratio than the real data-i.e. show more evidence for r when the true value is in fact zero.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § 4. Exploration of Alternate Foreground Models · p. 20

    The PySM models 1, 2 and 3 have A_d in the BICEP/Keck sky region much greater than the actual level and modestly increase σ(r), by an amount fractionally less than the increase seen in BK15.

    “They have A d in our sky region which is much greater that the actual level and this modestly increases σ ( r ), although interestingly by an amount that is fractionally less than the increase seen in BK15.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § 4. Exploration of Alternate Foreground Models · p. 20

    Neither the MKD nor the Vansyngel model produces detectable bias on r.

    “Neither of these models produces detectable bias on r .”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingcitation
    § 1. Temperature-to-Polarization Leakage from Residual Beam Mismatch · p. 21

    The Keck 95 GHz, 150 GHz and 220 GHz beam map simulation spectra were found to be very similar to the BK15 results.

    “The corresponding spectra for the Keck 95 GHz, 150 GHz and 220 GHz bands were found to be very similar to the BK15 results shown in Ref. [52].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [52]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § 2. Likelihood Variation · p. 18

    The real data shows an increase almost exactly equal to that in the mean of simulations, i.e. the data is perfectly compatible with the lensed-ΛCDM expectation plus the simple 3 parameter dust model.

    “The real data shows an increase almost exactly equal to that in the mean of simulations-i.e. the data is perfectly compatible with the lensed-ΛCDM expectation plus the simple 3 parameter dust model.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § 3. Likelihood Validation · p. 19

    In maximum likelihood validation on standard lensed-ΛCDM+dust+noise simulations, the input values are recovered in the mean, although there is a small detectable bias on A_d.

    “The input values are recovered in the mean although formally there is a small bias detectable on A d .”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation
    § 2. Other Additive Systematics Effects · p. 22

    Uncertainties from polarized point source flux may yield an upward bias on r of 1-3 × 10^-3, and imperfections in noise bias estimates may yield a downward bias on r of 2 × 10^-3.

    “More significant, but still subdominant for the current analysis, are uncertainties from the contributions of polarized flux from point sources in our field, which estimates suggest may yield an upward bias on r of 1-3 × 10 -3 [9, 64, and recent internal work], and imperfections in our noise bias estimates as they interact with leakage deprojection filtering, which recent preliminary work suggests”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [9]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites [64]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § 1. Temperature-to-Polarization Leakage from Residual Beam Mismatch · p. 21

    The recovered bias on r from T→P leakage is ∆(r) = 1.5 ± 1.1 × 10^-3, which is subdominant compared to the statistical uncertainty σ(r) = 0.009.

    “The recovered bias is ∆( r ) = 1 . 5 ± 1 . 1 × 10 -3 , which is subdominant compared to our statistical uncertainty σ ( r ) = 0 . 009.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation
    § BICEP / Keck XIII: Improved Constraints on Primordial Gravitational Waves using Planck , WMAP, and BICEP/ Keck Observations through the 2018 Observing Season · p. 2

    A joint analysis using multifrequency data from Planck showed that most or all of the excess is due to polarized emission from dust in our own galaxy.

    “In a joint analysis using multifrequency data from the Planck experiment it was shown that most or all of this is due to polarized emission from dust in our own galaxy [10, hereafter BKP].”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [10]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductcitation
    § BICEP / Keck XIII: Improved Constraints on Primordial Gravitational Waves using Planck , WMAP, and BICEP/ Keck Observations through the 2018 Observing Season · p. 4

    As part of standard data reduction, leading order temperature-to-polarization leakage is deprojected.

    “As part of our standard data reduction we 'deproject' leading order temperature to polarization leakage [9, 34]-in Appendix F we quantify possible residual leakage and some other possible systematics.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [9]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites [34]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation
    § BICEP / Keck XIII: Improved Constraints on Primordial Gravitational Waves using Planck , WMAP, and BICEP/ Keck Observations through the 2018 Observing Season · p. 2

    The BICEP/Keck program first reported detection of an excess over the lensing B-mode expectation at 150 GHz.

    “Our BICEP/ Keck program first reported detection of an excess over the lensing B -mode expectation at 150 GHz in Ref. [9].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [9]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation
    § BICEP / Keck XIII: Improved Constraints on Primordial Gravitational Waves using Planck , WMAP, and BICEP/ Keck Observations through the 2018 Observing Season · p. 2

    Under ΛCDM, the CMB polarization pattern is mostly E-mode, with a much smaller B-mode component arising from gravitational lensing of CMB photons after last scattering.

    “Under the ΛCDM standard model the CMB polarization pattern is mostly E -mode, with a much smaller B -mode component which arises due to gravitational deflections (lensing) of the CMB photons after their last scattering [5].”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [5]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductcitation
    § BICEP / Keck XIII: Improved Constraints on Primordial Gravitational Waves using Planck , WMAP, and BICEP/ Keck Observations through the 2018 Observing Season · p. 3

    The EE spectra were not used to derive the model but agree well with it under the assumption that EE/BB = 2 for dust.

    “The EE spectra were not used to derive the model but agree well with it under the assumption that EE/BB = 2 for dust, as is known to be close to the case [23, 24].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [23]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites [24]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • The authors state this as an assumption: For dust, EE/BB = 2.
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation
    § BICEP / Keck XIII: Improved Constraints on Primordial Gravitational Waves using Planck , WMAP, and BICEP/ Keck Observations through the 2018 Observing Season · p. 2

    At the South Pole the atmosphere is exceptionally transparent and stable at the observation frequencies.

    “At the South Pole the atmosphere is exceptionally transparent and stable at the observation frequencies [17, Fig. 5].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [17, Fig. 5]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductown data
    § BICEP / Keck XIII: Improved Constraints on Primordial Gravitational Waves using Planck , WMAP, and BICEP/ Keck Observations through the 2018 Observing Season · p. 3

    Jackknife internal consistency null tests were carried out on the new 95 GHz and 220 GHz data.

    “To test for systematic contamination we carry out our usual 'jackknife' internal consistency (null) tests on the new 95GHz and 220GHz data as described in Appendices B and C.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation
    § BICEP / Keck XIII: Improved Constraints on Primordial Gravitational Waves using Planck , WMAP, and BICEP/ Keck Observations through the 2018 Observing Season · p. 3

    Planck analysis consistently finds approximate power law behavior of both the EE and BB dust spectra with exponents ≈ -0.4.

    “Planck analysis consistently finds approximate power law behavior of both the EE and BB dust spectra with exponents ≈ -0 . 4 [23, 24].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [23]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites [24]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation
    § BICEP / Keck XIII: Improved Constraints on Primordial Gravitational Waves using Planck , WMAP, and BICEP/ Keck Observations through the 2018 Observing Season · p. 2

    Since primordial gravitational waves produce E-modes and B-modes approximately equally, the best way to search for them is to look for an excess B-mode signal.

    “Since primordial gravitational waves will produce E -modes and B -modes approximately equally it was realized in the late 1990's that the best way to search for them is to look for an excess B -mode signal [6-8].”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites [6]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites [7]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites [8]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation
    § BICEP / Keck XIII: Improved Constraints on Primordial Gravitational Waves using Planck , WMAP, and BICEP/ Keck Observations through the 2018 Observing Season · p. 3

    Using S-PASS data, the expectation is A_{sync,23}≈0.4 μK^2 in the BICEP/Keck field, consistent with the A_sync likelihood curve.

    “(Using the S-PASS data [30] we estimate that the expectation is A sync , 23 ≈ 0 . 4 µ K 2 in the BICEP/ Keck fi eld, which is consistent with our A sync likelihood curve.)”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [30]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data
    § BICEP / Keck XIII: Improved Constraints on Primordial Gravitational Waves using Planck , WMAP, and BICEP/ Keck Observations through the 2018 Observing Season · p. 4

    The φ^{2/3} model now lies outside the 95% contour, as does the band of natural inflation models.

    “The φ 2 / 3 model now lies outside the 95% contour as does the band of natural inflation models.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation
    § BICEP / Keck XIII: Improved Constraints on Primordial Gravitational Waves using Planck , WMAP, and BICEP/ Keck Observations through the 2018 Observing Season · p. 2

    If we can detect or set limits on primordial gravitational waves, we can set limits on inflationary models and probe physics at energy scales far higher than laboratory experiments.

    “If we can detect or set limits on primordial gravitational waves we can set limits on these models [4], and probe physics at energy scales far higher than can ever be accessed in laboratory experiments.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [4]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation
    § 2. Likelihood Variation · p. 17

    The Planck 2018 TT,TE,EE+lowE result is A_L = 1.18 ± 0.065.

    “This is an interesting result given the Planck 2018 TT,TE,EE+lowE result A L = 1 . 18 ± 0 . 065 [2, Eqn. 36b].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [2]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data
    § 2. Likelihood Variation · p. 17

    There is very little degeneracy between r and A_BB_L, implying that all one needs from ΛCDM is the template shape of the lensing B-mode spectrum, not the amplitude.

    “In addition in the right panel of Fig. 19 we see that there is very little degeneracy between r and A BB L implying that all one now needs from ΛCDM is the template shape of the lensing B -mode spectrum, and not the amplitude.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductnone given
    § Appendix B: Internal Consistency Tests of New Data · p. 10

    The authors did not look at the non-jackknife spectra until the data removals had been done and the null tests determined to be satisfactory.

    “We note that we did not look at the non-jackknife spectra until the above data removals had been done and the null tests determined to be satisfactory.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation
    § 2. Likelihood Variation · p. 15

    Ref. [55] reported evidence for line-of-sight decorrelation in Planck data by using HI data to select sight lines which integrate over multiple dust clouds.

    “Recently Ref. [55] reported evidence for line-of-sight decorrelation in Planck data by using HI data to select sight lines which integrate over multiple dust clouds.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [55]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductreasoning
    § Appendix D: Multi Frequency Spectra · p. 12

    The other Planck bands were dropped because they provide a negligible amount of additional information.

    “To keep down the total number of spectra we drop the other Planck bands since these provide a negligible amount of additional information.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation
    § BICEP / Keck XIII: Improved Constraints on Primordial Gravitational Waves using Planck , WMAP, and BICEP/ Keck Observations through the 2018 Observing Season · p. 3

    Analysis of 2.3 GHz data from S-PASS in conjunction with WMAP and Planck finds β_s=-3.2 with no detected trends with galactic latitude or angular scale.

    “We note that analysis of 2.3 GHz data from S-PASS in conjunction with WMAP and Planck fi nds β s = -3 . 2 with no detected trends with galactic latitude or angular scale [30]”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [30]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductcitation
    § Appendix D: Multi Frequency Spectra · p. 11

    Using different apodizations suppresses the amplitude of cross-spectra relative to auto-spectra, but this is automatically taken into account in the bandpower window function calculations.

    “Using different apodizations suppresses the amplitude of the cross-spectra as compared to the auto-spectra but this is automatically taken into account in the bandpower window function calculations [18, 53].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [18]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites [53]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation
    § 2. Likelihood Variation · p. 15

    In the BICEP/Keck region, one cloud dominates the column density in the majority of pixels.

    “This study uses maps of the effective number of clouds taken from Ref. [56] which in Sec. 4.2 specifically examines the BICEP/ Keck patch and states that 'one cloud dominates the column density in the majority of pixels in the BICEP/ Keck region'.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [56]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductcitation
    § Appendix B: Internal Consistency Tests of New Data · p. 10

    The jackknife tests of the new 2016, 2017, and 2018 data are the same as those performed on the previous BICEP/Keck data.

    “In this section we perform tests of the new 2016, 2017 and 2018 data which are the same as those performed on the previous BICEP/ Keck data in Sec. VII.C of Ref. [9], Sec. 6.3 of Ref. [14], Appendix B of BK14, and Appendix B of BK15.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [9]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites [14]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductown data
    § 2. Likelihood Variation · p. 17

    Running maximum likelihood searches on simulations indicates that apodizing each map with its natural inverse variance coverage pattern results in σ(r) as low as any other option with no detectable bias on r.

    “Running maximum likelihood searches on simulations indicates that this results in σ ( r ) as low as any other option with no detectable bias on r .”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation
    § BICEP / Keck XIII: Improved Constraints on Primordial Gravitational Waves using Planck , WMAP, and BICEP/ Keck Observations through the 2018 Observing Season · p. 3

    Ref. [30] finds a value at the bottom end of the range (≈ -1) from S-PASS data for BB at high galactic latitude.

    “Ref. [30] finds a value at the bottom end of this range ( ≈ -1) from the S-PASS data for BB at high galactic latitude.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [30]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductown data
    § Appendix F: Systematics · p. 21

    For all systematics effects considered, the magnitude of the estimated bias on r is significantly smaller than the statistical uncertainty, and not all biases have the same sign, which should lead to partial cancellation.

    “For all effects considered, the magnitude of the estimated bias on r is significantly smaller than our statistical uncertainty, and not all of the biases have the same sign, which should lead to partial cancelation.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductown data
    § 1. Temperature-to-Polarization Leakage from Residual Beam Mismatch · p. 21

    In the BK18 leakage analysis, care was taken to minimize systematic contamination in the composite beam maps from the FFBM analysis pipeline itself.

    “In this leakage analysis for BK18, care was taken to minimize systematic contamination in the composite beam maps from the FFBM analysis pipeline itself, e.g. by minimizing non-Gaussian noise and excess smoothing.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationreasoning
    § 4. Exploration of Alternate Foreground Models · p. 19

    Variation of dust amplitude across the field can potentially produce bias on r given that the re-fit model assumes a single A_d value applies to both the smaller BICEP2/Keck field and the larger BICEP3 field.

    “Such variation of the dust amplitude across the field can potentially produce bias on r given that our re-fit model assumes a single A d value applies to both the smaller BICEP2 / Keck fi eld and the larger BICEP3 fi eld.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: The re-fit model assumes a single A_d value applies to both the smaller BICEP2/Keck field and the larger BICEP3 field.
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation
    § 2. Other Additive Systematics Effects · p. 22

    Other additive systematic effects (EMI, magnetic, thermal, scan-synchronous sources, ghost beams) were studied in Ref. [34] and upper limits placed on their contributions equivalent to r < 10^-4, except EMI from the satellite uplink bounded at r < 1.7 × 10^-3 with 95% confidence.

    “Other additive systematic effects including EMI, magnetic, thermal, and other scan-synchronous sources of residual contamination, and ghost beams, were studied in Ref. [34] and upper limits placed on their contributions equivalent to r &lt; 10 -4 , except in the case of EMI contamination from the satellite uplink transmitter, which was bounded at r &lt; 1 . 7 × 10 -3 with 95% confidence.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [34]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data
    § 1. Temperature-to-Polarization Leakage from Residual Beam Mismatch · p. 21

    The driving factor in the improvement in recovered T→P bias is the inclusion of BICEP3, which demonstrates lower differential beam power than Keck and BICEP2, both before and after deprojection.

    “The driving factor in this improvement in the recovered bias is the inclusion of BICEP3 , which demonstrates lower differential beam power than Keck and BICEP2 , both before and after deprojection.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductown data
    § 2. Other Additive Systematics Effects · p. 22

    Levels of potential contamination from other additive systematic effects have been monitored throughout collection of the current dataset, and contributions from these effects remain negligible.

    “Levels of these potential sources of contamination have been monitored throughout collection of the current dataset (including EMI reduction from additional shielding at the satellite uplink), and contributions from these effects remain negligible.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
82 of 82
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    For dust, EE/BB = 2.

    “under the assumption that EE/BB = 2 for dust, as is known to be close to the case [23, 24]”
    “under the assumption that EE/BB = 2 for dust”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The synchrotron frequency spectrum is a simple power law A_sync ∝ ν^β_s.

    “assuming a simple power law for the frequency spectral behavior A sync ∝ ν β s”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The dust spatial power spectrum is a power law D_ℓ ∝ ℓ^α_d.

    “The spatial power spectrum is taken as a power law D ℓ ∝ ℓ α d marginalizing uniformly over the (generous) range -1 < α d < 0”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The synchrotron spatial power spectrum is a power law D_ℓ ∝ ℓ^α_s.

    “The spatial power spectrum is taken as a power law D ℓ ∝ ℓ α s marginalizing over the range -1 < α s < 0 [32].”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The power spectrum of the polarized dust emission in the BICEP/Keck field follows a power law.

    “We note that this figure offers empirical backing for an assumption which we make in our mainline analysis: that the power spectrum of the polarized dust emission in our field follows a power law.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The dust and synchrotron sky patterns have Gaussian fluctuations.

    “The parametric model which we are using, including the approximation of Gaussian fluctuation of the dust (and synchrotron) sky patterns, remains an adequate description of the presently available data.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Dust decorrelation exists in the BICEP/Keck sky patch at some level.

    “Nonetheless, decorrelation surely exists in our sky patch at some level-the question is whether it is relevant as compared to the BK18 experimental noise.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The EE/BB ratios for dust and synchrotron are both exactly 2.

    “under the artificial assumption that the EE/BB ratios for dust and synchrotron are both exactly 2”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The re-fit model assumes a single A_d value applies to both the smaller BICEP2/Keck field and the larger BICEP3 field.

    “given that our re-fit model assumes a single A d value applies to both the smaller BICEP2 / Keck fi eld and the larger BICEP3 fi eld.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    When running on simulations generated according to the model being re-fit, the input parameter values should be recovered in the mean.

    “we then have an a priori expectation that the input parameter values should be recovered in the mean.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The Planck 2018 cosmological parameters predict a specific lensing BB spectrum as used in the BK18 baseline analysis.

    “The Planck 2018 cosmological parameters predict a specific lensing BB spectrum as used in the 'BK18 baseline' analysis described above.”
11 of 11

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Authors
Ade, P. A. R., Ahmed, Z., Amiri, M., Barkats, D., Thakur, R. B., Bischoff, C. A., Beck, D., Bock, J. J., Boenish, H., Bullock, E., Buza, V., Cheshire, J. R., Connors, J., Cornelison, J., Crumrine, M., Cukierman, A., Denison, E. V., Dierickx, M., Duband, L., Eiben, M., Fatigoni, S., Filippini, J. P., Fliescher, S., Goeckner-Wald, N., Goldfinger, D. C., Grayson, J., Grimes, P., Hall, G., Halal, G., Halpern, M., Hand, E., Harrison, S., Henderson, S., Hildebrandt, S. R., Hilton, G. C., Hubmayr, J., Hui, H., Irwin, K. D., Kang, J., Karkare, K. S., Karpel, E., Kefeli, S., Kernasovskiy, S. A., Kovac, J. M., Kuo, C. L., Lau, K., Leitch, E. M., Lennox, A., Megerian, K. G., Minutolo, L., Moncelsi, L., Nakato, Y., Namikawa, T., Nguyen, H. T., O’Brient, R., Ogburn, R. W., Palladino, S., Prouve, T., Pryke, C., Racine, B., Reintsema, C. D., Richter, S., Schillaci, A., Schwarz, R., Schmitt, B. L., Sheehy, C. D., Soliman, A., Germaine, T. S., Steinbach, B., Sudiwala, R. V., Teply, G. P., Thompson, K. L., Tolan, J. E., Tucker, C., Turner, A. D., Umiltà, C., Vergès, C., Vieregg, A. G., Wandui, A., Weber, A. C., Wiebe, D. V., Willmert, J., Wong, C. L., Wu, W. L. K., Yang, H., Yoon, K. W., Young, E., Yu, C., Zeng, L., Zhang, C., Zhang, S., & BICEP/<i>Keck</i> Collaboration
Affiliations
  • Cardiff University (GB)
  • SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory (US)
  • University of British Columbia (CA)
  • Center for Astrophysics Harvard & Smithsonian (US)
  • California Institute of Technology (US)
  • University of Cincinnati (US)
  • University of Minnesota (US)
  • University of Chicago (US)
  • National Institute of Standards and Technology (US)
  • Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives (FR)
  • University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign (US)
  • Stanford University (US)
  • Harvard University (US)
  • Jet Propulsion Laboratory (US)
  • Kavli Institute for the Physics and Mathematics of the Universe (JP)
  • Service des Basses Températures, Commissariat à l’Energie Atomique, 38054 Grenoble, France
  • Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR)
  • Brookhaven National Laboratory (US)
Venue
Physical Review Letters
Published
2021-10-04
Volume
127
Issue
15
Pages
151301-151301
ISSN
  • 0031-9007 (ISSN-L)
  • 1079-7114
OpenAlex
W3202102945
Cited by
1,014
References
57
Citations by year
2026: 163 · 2025: 253 · 2024: 218 · 2023: 203 · 2022: 162 · 2021: 15
FWCI
80.49
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • Physical Review Letters (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • arXiv (Cornell University) (submittedVersion)
  • CaltechAUTHORS (California Institute of Technology) (submittedVersion)
  • HAL AMU (submittedVersion)
  • OSTI OAI (U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information) (submittedVersion)
  • arXiv (Cornell University)
Funders
  • National Science Foundation (0742818, 0742592, 1044978, 1110087, 1145172, 1145143, 1145248, 1639040, 1638957, 1638978, 1638970)
  • W. M. Keck Foundation
  • Jet Propulsion Laboratory
  • National Aeronautics and Space Administration (06-ARPA206-0040, 10-SAT10-0017, 12-SAT12-0031, 14-SAT14-0009, 16-SAT-16-0002)
  • Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation
  • Canada Foundation for Innovation
  • University of British Columbia
  • Science and Technology Facilities Council (ST/N000706/1)
  • Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Harvard University
  • U.S. Department of Energy
  • Office of Science
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Physics and Astronomy › Astronomy and Astrophysics › Cosmology and Gravitation Theories
  • Physical Sciences › Physics and Astronomy › Nuclear and High Energy Physics › Dark Matter and Cosmic Phenomena
  • Physical Sciences › Physics and Astronomy › Statistical and Nonlinear Physics › Noncommutative and Quantum Gravity Theories
Keywords
primordial gravitational waves, BICEP2, Keck Array, CMB polarization, tensor-to-scalar ratio, foreground modeling, polarized dust emission, synchrotron radiation, Planck, WMAP

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-10-23.

Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-10-23.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

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