Bibliometric data and actual development in technology life cycles: flaws in assumptions
Abstract
Purpose: – Motivated with the ever growing number of bibliometric trend extrapolation studies, the purpose of this paper is to demonstrate through two technologies how the selection of an upper limit of growth affects the correlation and causality of technology development measured with bibliometric data. Design/methodology/approach: – The paper uses Gompertz and Fisher-Pry curves to model the technological development of white light emitting diodes and flash memory, and show with extrapolation results from several bibliometric sources how a typical bias is caused in trend extrapolations. Findings: – The paper shows how drastic an effect the decision to set an upper bound has on trend extrapolations, to be used as a reference for applications. The paper recommends carefully examining the interconnection of actual development and bibliometric activity. Originality/value: – Despite increasing interest in modelling technological data using this method, reports rarely discuss basic assumptions and their effects on outcomes. Since trend extrapolations are applied more widely in different disciplines, the basic limitations of methods should be explicitly expressed.
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Most technology-oriented bibliometric analyses choose only one database as a source.
“most technology-oriented analyses choose only one database as a source (Suominen and Seppänen 2014)”
From Blockchain technology in the smart city: A bibliometric review (2022) · cites this paper as Suominen and Seppänen 2014
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- Authors
- Suominen, A., & Seppänen, M.
- Affiliations
- VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland (FI)
- Tampere University of Technology (FI)
- Venue
- Foresight
- Publisher
- Emerald
- Published
- 2014-03-04
- Volume
- 16
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 37-53
- ISSN
- 1463-6689 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W1979219760
- Cited by
- 22
- References
- 44
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 2 · 2024: 1 · 2023: 1 · 2022: 4 · 2021: 1 · 2019: 6 · 2018: 1 · 2017: 1 · 2015: 2 · 2014: 2
- FWCI
- 1.63
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- foresight (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty › scientometrics and bibliometrics research
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Innovation Diffusion and Forecasting
- Social Sciences › Business, Management and Accounting › Management of Technology and Innovation › Intellectual Property and Patents
- Keywords
- technology life cycle, Gompertz model, white LEDs, flash memory
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