Cited by 22scientometrics and bibliometrics researchInnovation Diffusion and ForecastingIntellectual Property and Patents

Bibliometric data and actual development in technology life cycles: flaws in assumptions

Suominen, Arho, Seppänen, Marko·2014·Foresight

Abstract

Purpose: – Motivated with the ever growing number of bibliometric trend extrapolation studies, the purpose of this paper is to demonstrate through two technologies how the selection of an upper limit of growth affects the correlation and causality of technology development measured with bibliometric data. Design/methodology/approach: – The paper uses Gompertz and Fisher-Pry curves to model the technological development of white light emitting diodes and flash memory, and show with extrapolation results from several bibliometric sources how a typical bias is caused in trend extrapolations. Findings: – The paper shows how drastic an effect the decision to set an upper bound has on trend extrapolations, to be used as a reference for applications. The paper recommends carefully examining the interconnection of actual development and bibliometric activity. Originality/value: – Despite increasing interest in modelling technological data using this method, reports rarely discuss basic assumptions and their effects on outcomes. Since trend extrapolations are applied more widely in different disciplines, the basic limitations of methods should be explicitly expressed.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1108/fs-03-2013-0007

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44 of 44 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

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  • Most technology-oriented bibliometric analyses choose only one database as a source.

    “most technology-oriented analyses choose only one database as a source (Suominen and Seppänen 2014)”

    From Blockchain technology in the smart city: A bibliometric review (2022) · cites this paper as Suominen and Seppänen 2014

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Authors
Suominen, A., & Seppänen, M.
Affiliations
  • VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland (FI)
  • Tampere University of Technology (FI)
Venue
Foresight
Publisher
Emerald
Published
2014-03-04
Volume
16
Issue
1
Pages
37-53
ISSN
1463-6689 (ISSN-L)
OpenAlex
W1979219760
Cited by
22
References
44
Citations by year
2026: 1 · 2025: 2 · 2024: 1 · 2023: 1 · 2022: 4 · 2021: 1 · 2019: 6 · 2018: 1 · 2017: 1 · 2015: 2 · 2014: 2
FWCI
1.63
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed
Locations
foresight (publishedVersion)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty › scientometrics and bibliometrics research
  • Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Innovation Diffusion and Forecasting
  • Social Sciences › Business, Management and Accounting › Management of Technology and Innovation › Intellectual Property and Patents
Keywords
technology life cycle, Gompertz model, white LEDs, flash memory

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