Cited by 194Transportation Systems and InfrastructureInnovation Diffusion and ForecastingTechnology Assessment and Management

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Electronic part life cycle concepts and obsolescence forecasting

Pecht, M.G., Sandborn, P.A., Solomon, R.·2000·IEEE Transactions on Components and Packaging Technologies

DOI 10.1109/6144.888857

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Abstract

Obsolescence of electronic parts is a major contributor to the life cycle cost of long-field life systems such as avionics. A methodology to forecast life cycles of electronic parts is presented, in which both years to obsolescence and life cycle stages are predicted. The methodology embeds both market and technology factors based on the dynamic assessment of sales data. The predictions enabled from the models developed in this paper allow engineers to effectively manage the introduction and on-going use of long field-life products based on the projected life cycle of the parts incorporated into the products. Application of the methodology to integrated circuits is discussed and obsolescence predictions for dynamic random access memories (DRAMs) are demonstrated. The goal is to significantly reduce design iterations, inventory expenses, sustainment costs, and overall life cycle product costs.

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Authors: Pecht, M. G., Sandborn, P. A., & Solomon, R.
Affiliations: University of Maryland, College Park (US)
ORCID: Pecht, M.G.
Sandborn, P.A.
Venue: IEEE Transactions on Components and Packaging Technologies
Publisher: Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE)
Published: 2000
Volume: 23
Issue: 4
Pages: 707-717
ISSN: 1521-3331 (ISSN-L)
DOI: 10.1109/6144.888857
OpenAlex: W2119785455
Cited by: 194
References: 7
Citations by year: 2026: 6 · 2025: 7 · 2024: 4 · 2023: 2 · 2022: 10 · 2021: 19 · 2020: 5 · 2019: 14 · 2018: 9 · 2017: 9 · 2016: 10 · 2015: 9 · 2014: 11 · 2013: 8 · 2012: 16
FWCI: 6.83
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Licence: ieeexplore.ieee.org/Xplorehelp/downloads/license-information/IEEE.html (vor)
Locations: IEEE Transactions on Components and Packaging Technologies (publishedVersion)
Topics: Social Sciences › Business, Management and Accounting › Management of Technology and Innovation › Transportation Systems and Infrastructure
Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Innovation Diffusion and Forecasting
Social Sciences › Business, Management and Accounting › Management of Technology and Innovation › Technology Assessment and Management
Keywords: life cycle cost, avionics, integrated circuits, dynamic random access memory, DRAM, sales analysis, technology forecasting, inventory management

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Electronic part life cycle concepts and obsolescence forecasting

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