Solar Photovoltaic Capacity Demand for a fully sustainable Transport Sector – How to fulfil the Paris Agreement by 2050
Abstract
The Paris Agreement sets a clear target for net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by the mid-21stcentury. This implies that the Transport sector will reach zero GHG emissions mainly through direct and indirect electrification in the form of synthetic fuels, such as hydrogen and Fischer-Tropsch (FT) fuels. This paper analyses the global solar photovoltaics (PV) demand for achieving sustainability targets in the Transport sector by the year 2050. The methodology is comprised of the derivation of the transportation demand converted into final energy demand for direct electrification, hydrogen, methane and FT-fuels. The power-to-gas (H2, CH4) and power-to-liquids (FTfuels) value chains are applied for the total electricity demand for the transportation demand, assuming an energy transition for the Transport sector and a biofuel contribution. This electricity demand is the basis for the solar PV demand, taking into account previous results concerning the renewable electricity share and thereof the solar PV share of the energy transition in the Power sector. The results show a continuous demand increase for all transport modes for passenger and freight transport of about 200% from 2015 to 2050. The anticipated strong direct electrification in the road and rail segments and continued demand of liquid fuels for the marine and aviation segments lead to a drastic relative energy demand shift towards marine and aviation. The total global PV capacity demand by 2050 for the Transport sector is estimated to be about 19.2 TWp, thereof 35%, 25%, 6% and 33% for direct electrification, hydrogen, synthetic natural gas, and FT-fuels, respectively. An additional 2.4 TWp PV capacity is allocated to the FT by-product naphtha, which is a valuable input for the chemical industry and may be equivalent to about 14% of the feedstock demand of the chemical industry in 2050. Solar PV will be the key enabler of a full defossilisation of the Transport sector with a demand comparable to the Power sector but a slightly later growth dynamic, leading to a combined annual PV capacity demand of about 1.8 TWp around 2050.
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A full defossilization of the transport sector can be achieved by direct and indirect electrification and the respective transition towards sustainable fuels.
“A full defossilization of the transport sector can be achieved by direct and indirect electrification and the respective transition towards sustainable fuels [36,145].”
From Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World (2019) · cites this paper as [145]
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- Authors
- Breyer, C., Khalili, S., Rantanen, E., & Bogdanov, D.
- Affiliations
- Lappeenranta-Lahti University of Technology (FI)
- Venue
- 2018 IEEE 7th World Conference on Photovoltaic Energy Conversion (WCPEC) (A Joint Conference of 45th IEEE PVSC, 28th PVSEC & 34th EU PVSEC)
- Publisher
- IEEE
- Published
- 2018-06
- Pages
- 1632-1637
- OpenAlex
- W2902054962
- Cited by
- 13
- References
- 9
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 2 · 2024: 1 · 2023: 3 · 2022: 2 · 2020: 1 · 2019: 3
- FWCI
- 1.87
- Type
- conference paper
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- World Conference on Photovoltaic Energy Conversion (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Energy › Energy Engineering and Power Technology › Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Electrical and Electronic Engineering › Integrated Energy Systems Optimization
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Electrical and Electronic Engineering › Electric Vehicles and Infrastructure
- Keywords
- Paris Agreement, power-to-gas, power-to-liquids, hydrogen, Fischer-Tropsch fuels, synthetic natural gas, synthetic methane, electric mobility, final energy demand, defossilization, 2050 energy scenarios
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