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Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World

Open access
Khalili, Siavash, Rantanen, Eetu, Bogdanov, Dmitrii, Breyer, Christian·2019·Energies
DOI 10.3390/en12203870
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Abstract

The pivotal target of the Paris Agreement is to keep temperature rise well below 2 °C above the pre-industrial level and pursue efforts to limit temperature rise to 1.5 °C. To meet this target, all energy-consuming sectors, including the transport sector, need to be restructured. The transport sector accounted for 19% of the global final energy demand in 2015, of which the vast majority was supplied by fossil fuels (around 31,080 TWh). Fossil-fuel consumption leads to greenhouse gas emissions, which accounted for about 8260 MtCO2eq from the transport sector in 2015. This paper examines the transportation demand that can be expected and how alternative transportation technologies along with new sustainable energy sources can impact the energy demand and emissions trend in the transport sector until 2050. Battery-electric vehicles and fuel-cell electric vehicles are the two most promising technologies for the future on roads. Electric ships and airplanes for shorter distances and hydrogen-based synthetic fuels for longer distances may appear around 2030 onwards to reduce the emissions from the marine and aviation transport modes. The rail mode will remain the least energy-demanding, compared to other transport modes. An ambitious scenario for achieving zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 is applied, also demonstrating the very high relevance of direct and indirect electrification of the transport sector. Fossil-fuel demand can be reduced to zero by 2050; however, the electricity demand is projected to rise from 125 TWhel in 2015 to about 51,610 TWhel in 2050, substantially driven by indirect electricity demand for the production of synthetic fuels. While the transportation demand roughly triples from 2015 to 2050, substantial efficiency gains enable an almost stable final energy demand for the transport sector, as a consequence of broad electrification. The overall well-to-wheel efficiency in the transport sector increases from 26% in 2015 to 39% in 2050, resulting in a respective reduction of overall losses from primary energy to mechanical energy in vehicles. Power-to-fuels needed mainly for marine and aviation transport is not a significant burden for overall transport sector efficiency. The primary energy base of the transport sector switches in the next decades from fossil resources to renewable electricity, driven by higher efficiency and sustainability.

AI snapshot

Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

This paper models a global 100% renewable transport transition to 2050 under a 1.5 °C-compatible scenario, covering road, rail, marine, and aviation passenger and freight demand. It finds that despite roughly tripling transport demand, final energy demand stays near 2015 levels due to electrification and efficiency, with fossil fuel demand reduced to zero by 2050.

Key findings

  • Global transport final energy demand remains almost stable: 31,613 TWh in 2015 to 32,542 TWh in 2050, while transport activity rises 257% for passenger and 208% for freight; mechanical energy demand increases 104.5% and primary energy demand 36.3%.
  • Fossil-fuel demand can be reduced to zero by 2050; electricity demand rises from 125 TWh_el in 2015 to about 51,610 TWh_el in 2050, driven substantially by indirect electricity demand for synthetic fuels.
  • Well-to-wheel efficiency increases from 26% in 2015 to 39% in 2050; tank-to-wheel efficiency rises from 31% to 62%, while well-to-tank efficiency falls from 82% to 62%. The primary energy base switches from 95% fossil in 2015 to 98% renewable electricity in 2050.
  • Battery-electric vehicles become the least-cost road option from 2025 onward: LDV BEV LCOM falls from 0.491 €/km in 2015 to 0.281 €/km in 2050, versus LDV ICE rising from 0.299 to 0.350 €/km. GHG emissions are projected to peak between 2020 and 2025 (Discussion; Conclusions says 2025–2030) and decline to zero by 2050.

Methods

  • Scenario-based global transport transition model to 2050 in 5-year intervals, covering four modes—road, rail, marine, and aviation—split into passenger and freight, with country/region resolution across nine major regions using GDP per capita and population to disaggregate demand.
  • Demand data from ICCT, IMO, ICAO, UN population, and Toktarova et al. GDP/capita projections; specific energy demand and fuel shares from literature; road vehicle stock and fuel shares derived via levelized cost of mobility (LCOM) using capex, opex, lifetimes, 7% WACC, and CO₂ price; final energy and GHG emissions calculated via equations, with well-to-wheel/tank-to-wheel efficiency analysis.
  • A single ambitious 1.5 °C-compatible 100% renewable scenario is applied; the paper states it is not intended to compare several scenarios within this framework.

Limitations

  • Stated: the study presents one stringent scenario rather than comparing multiple scenarios; full LCOM is considered only for the road mode, while fuel shares for other modes come from other sources; further research is needed on socio-technical dynamics, material resource limitations, financial parameter setup, and synthetic fuel phase-in.
  • Evident: the analysis relies heavily on exogenous projections and assumptions—GDP, population, technology costs, fuel shares, and lifetimes—without sensitivity analysis; the paper also notes uncertainty about whether hydrogen will dominate marine transport by 2050.

Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.3390/en12203870

Cites

113 of 113 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Claims the paper makes

0 of 128 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged

  • Findingnone given

    Power-to-fuels needed mainly for marine and aviation transport is not a significant burden for overall transport sector efficiency.

    “Power-to-fuels needed mainly for marine and aviation transport is not a significant burden for overall transport sector efficiency.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Findingreasoning

    Electricity demand in the transport sector is projected to rise from 125 TWh_el in 2015 to about 51,610 TWh_el in 2050.

    “Fossil-fuel demand can be reduced to zero by 2050; however, the electricity demand is projected to rise from 125 TWh el in 2015 to about 51,610 TWh el in 2050, substantially driven by indirect electricity demand for the production of synthetic fuels.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: Global transportation activity will increase by around 2.7% per annum for passengers and 2.3% per annum for freight in the decades to come.
  • Findingnone given

    The overall well-to-wheel efficiency in the transport sector increases from 26% in 2015 to 39% in 2050.

    “The overall well-to-wheel efficiency in the transport sector increases from 26% in 2015 to 39% in 2050, resulting in a respective reduction of overall losses from primary energy to mechanical energy in vehicles.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingnone given

    Transportation demand roughly triples from 2015 to 2050.

    “While the transportation demand roughly triples from 2015 to 2050, substantial efficiency gains enable an almost stable final energy demand for the transport sector, as a consequence of broad electrification.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: Global transportation activity will increase by around 2.7% per annum for passengers and 2.3% per annum for freight in the decades to come.
  • Findingreasoning

    BEV shows the least opex fixed of all road transport segments.

    “BEV shows the least opex fixed of all road transport segments.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims. 99
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 38
  • The quote only partly states this claim. 2

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The share of marine freight of marine energy demand is 96.8%, and 3.2% of marine energy demand is allocated for marine passenger.

    “The share of marine freight of marine energy demand is found to be 96.8%,thus 3.2% of marine energy demand is to be allocated for marine passenger.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning

    The final energy demand of about 32,540 TWh in 2050 is roughly the same as in 2015, a result of strong shift towards higher efficient vehicle types and fuels, since transportation demand triples.

    “The final energy demand of about 32,540 TWh in 2050 is roughly the same as in 2015, which is a result of the strong shift towards higher efficient vehicle types and fuels, since the transportation demand triples, as presented in Figure 1.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    In rail transport mode, the specific final energy demand of electric trains is lower than their diesel counterparts in 2015, with increasing energy efficiency for both power trains.

    “In the transport mode rail, the specific final energy demand of electric trains is lower than their diesel (liquid-fuel) counterparts in 2015, with a trend of increasing energy efficiency for both power trains.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: The load factor for each transport segment is identical within each vehicle category.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Capex for LDV BEV is the highest among all LDV options in 2015, but second lowest in 2050, close to LDV ICE.

    “For instance, capex for LDV BEV is the highest among all LDV options in 2015, but second lowest in 2050, close to LDV ICE.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning

    The opex fixed of PHEV is the highest among road vehicle types, due to highest maintenance cost from two power trains.

    “The structural results show that the opex fixed of PHEV is the highest, since the maintenance cost is the highest, as two different power trains for the ICE and the BEV must be maintained, leading to higher complexity.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    MDV FCEV starts as the highest capex option for MDV in 2015, but emerges as the least capex option for MDV from 2030 onwards.

    “MDV FCEV starts as the highest capex option for MDV in 2015, but emerges as the least capex option for MDV from 2030 onwards.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The road transport mode dominates the total final energy demand of about 31,613 TWh in 2015 with 76%, with road passenger transportation contributing the major share.

    “The road transport mode dominates the total final energy demand of about 31,613 TWh in 2015 with 76%, in which road passenger transportation contributes the major share.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    Liquid fuels will play an important role in aviation of passenger and freight with 44% and 63%, respectively in 2050.

    “Liquid fuels will play an important role in the aviation of passenger and freight with 44% and 63%, respectively in 2050.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: Newly sold vehicles replace decommissioned vehicles in the existing stock at the end of their lifetimes.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingreasoning

    By 2050, all specific energy demand values decline to their minimum value.

    “By 2050, all values decline to its minimum value, since no reduction in efficiency is assumed.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: No reduction in efficiency is assumed by 2050.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Findingnone given

    In 2015, LDV operate fully on liquid fuels.

    “In 2015, LDV operate fully on liquid fuels.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: Newly sold vehicles replace decommissioned vehicles in the existing stock at the end of their lifetimes.

  • The quote only partly states this claim.

    Findingnone given

    Electricity dominates the final energy demand for LDV with 82.2% in 2050.

    “Meanwhile, electricity dominates the final energy demand with 82.2% in 2050.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: Newly sold vehicles replace decommissioned vehicles in the existing stock at the end of their lifetimes.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    BUS FCEV has the highest capex in 2015 and remains the highest in 2050, but at a much smaller relative difference.

    “BUS FCEV has by far the highest capex in 2015, which still remains the highest capex in 2050, but at a much smaller relative difference.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    LDV ICE is the least cost type in 2015, but from 2025 onwards LDV BEV is the least LCOM option for LDV.

    “The results for LDV, identify LDV ICE as the least cost type in 2015, but from 2025 onwards, LDV BEV is the least LCOM option for LDV.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    Currently, aviation operates with 100% liquid fuels, while from 2035 onwards electricity and hydrogen penetration is expected, but still on very small shares.

    “Currently, aviation operates with 100% liquid fuels, while from 2035 onwards, electricity and hydrogen penetration is expected, but still on very small shares.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: Newly sold vehicles replace decommissioned vehicles in the existing stock at the end of their lifetimes.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning

    In 2015, relative specific final energy demand for freight transportation is 0.042 kWh th/t-km for marine, 0.065 for rail, and 0.142 for aviation, indicating bulk transportation is most energy efficient by ships, followed by trains, and airplanes for highly valuable cargo.

    “The relative specific final energy demand for freight transportation in 2015 for marine (0.042 kWh th /t-km), rail (0.065 kWh th /t-km), aviation (0.142 kWh th /t-km), clearly indicates that bulk transportation is most energy efficient by ships, followed by trains, and only highly valuable cargo to be transported in airplanes, as a consequence of relative efficiency.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: The load factor for each transport segment is identical within each vehicle category.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    BUS BEV starts in 2015 as the second-highest capex next to BUS FCEV, but becomes the least capex option from 2030 onwards.

    “BUS BEV starts in 2015 as the second-highest next to BUS FCEV, but it becomes the least capex option from 2030 onwards.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    For BUS, BEV option is already in 2015 slightly lower in LCOM than BUS ICE and remains the least LCOM option for BUS.

    “For BUS, the BEV option is already in 2015 slightly lower in LCOM than BUS ICE and BUS BEV remains the least LCOM option for BUS.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    The electricity share of BUS is expected to be around 10% in 2020, the highest for road vehicles, and is expected to reach 93% in 2050.

    “The electricity share of BUS is expected to be around 10% in 2020, which is the highest for road vehicles and is expected to reach 93% in 2050.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: Newly sold vehicles replace decommissioned vehicles in the existing stock at the end of their lifetimes.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    The results for MDV reveal a similar dynamic as in BUS; however, this has not yet been observed in the market.

    “The results for MDV reveal a similar dynamic as in BUS; however, this has not yet been observed in the market.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    Electricity-based transportation is for all transport modes the most energy efficient option, but currently only accessible for railways in substantial volumes.

    “Electricity-based transportation is for all transport modes the most energy efficient option, but currently only accessible for railways in substantial volumes.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: The load factor for each transport segment is identical within each vehicle category.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Findingnone given

    Marine uses only liquid fuels in 2015.

    “Marine uses only liquid fuels in 2015.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: Newly sold vehicles replace decommissioned vehicles in the existing stock at the end of their lifetimes.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Findingnone given

    From 2020 onwards LNG is projected to contribute more for marine passenger.

    “Meanwhile, from 2020 onwards LNG is projected to contribute more for marine passenger.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: Newly sold vehicles replace decommissioned vehicles in the existing stock at the end of their lifetimes.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    From 2025 onwards, ICE is the highest LCOM option, resulting in a massive decline of newly sold ICE vehicles.

    “From 2025 onwards, ICE is the highest LCOM option resulting in a massive decline of newly sold ICE vehicles.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    For the three other transport modes, higher efficiency of all power trains and a shift from liquid fuels towards hydrogen and direct electricity where applicable can be observed.

    “These two fundamental trends can be also observed for the three other transport modes, as summarized in Table 12, i.e., higher efficiency of all power trains, and in addition, a shift from liquid fuels towards hydrogen and direct electricity, where applicable.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    LNG is currently introduced in marine transportation as a fuel, which could contribute higher shares in 2050 with about 6% of total transport sector final energy demand, mainly based on power-to-gas option.

    “However, LNG is currently introduced in marine transportation as a fuel, which could contribute higher shares in 2050 with about 6% of the total transport sector final energy demand, mainly based on the power-to-gas option, as indicated by Horvath et al. [36] and Breyer et al. [145].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Horvath et al. [36] Horvath, 2018, Techno-economic analysis of a decarbonized shipping sector: Technology suggestions for a fleet in 2030 and 2040, Energy Convers. Manag. source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites Breyer et al. [145] Breyer, C., Khalili, S., and Bogdanov, D. (2018). Solar Photovoltaic Capacity Demand for a fully sustainable Transport Sector—How to fulfill the Paris Agreement by 2050. Prog. Photovolt. Res. Appl., 1–12. source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    In 2015 most of the electricity is used for already electrified rail transportation, but most direct electricity is needed in 2050 for road transportation.

    “In 2015 most of the electricity is used for already electrified rail transportation, but most direct electricity is needed in 2050 for road transportation.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    Hydrogen is practically not used at present, but it can contribute 25% in 2050, meeting demand from road, marine, and aviation.

    “Hydrogen is practically not used at present, but it can contribute 25% in 2050, meeting the demand form the transport modes road, marine, and aviation.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning

    Relative losses for freight and passenger transportation in 2015 are 74%, reduced to 61% in 2050, measured in the WTW perspective.

    “The relative losses for freight and passenger transportation in 2015 are 74%, while this can be reduced to losses of 61% in 2050, measured in the WTW perspective.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    Liquid fuels dominate the total final energy demand with 98% in 2015, and can still contribute 33% of the final energy demand in 2050, mainly for marine and aviation transportation.

    “Liquid fuels dominate the total final energy demand with 98% in 2015, and can still contribute 33% of the final energy demand in 2050, which is mainly for marine and aviation transportation.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning

    The least LCOM of BEV is from the 2020s onward and enables GHG emissions reduction benefits if powered by renewable electricity.

    “The least LCOM of BEV is from the 2020s onward and enables GHG emissions reduction benefits if powered by renewable electricity.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning

    From 2040 onwards, GHG emissions are dominated by more than 50% by marine and aviation, as a consequence of hard-to-abate long-distance transportation.

    “However, form 2040 onwards the GHG emissions are dominated by more than 50% by marine and aviation, which is also a consequence of hard-to-abate long-distance transportation.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Transport activity increases from 2015 to 2050 by about 210% for freight and 260% for passenger.

    “The transport activity increases from 2015 to 2050 by about 210% (freight) and 260% (passenger) (Tables 2 to 4 and Figure 1)”
    • Also stated in: § 4.1. Data Analysis · plain
      “The transportation demand drastically grows by about 210% to 260% from 2015 to 2050, as shown in Figure 1.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    GHG emissions in the transport sector are projected to peak between 2020 and 2025 and then decline to zero in 2050, based on the applied energy transition scenarios.

    “GHG emissions in the transport sector are projected to peak between 2020 and 2025 and then decline to zero in 2050, based on the applied energy transition scenarios for the power sector and transport sector.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    Some countries, particularly developing and emerging countries, grow stronger, while others, mainly developed industrialized countries, grow slower or stagnate in transportation demand.

    “While some countries grow stronger, in particular developing and emerging countries, others, mainly developed industrialized countries, grow slower or even stagnate in transportation demand.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    The high share of more than one third in 2015 declines to small shares from 2040 onwards, as a consequence of high efficiency gains due to massive electrification and defossilization of the electricity supply.

    “This high share of more than one third in 2015 declines to small shares from 2040 onwards, as a consequence of high efficiency gains due to massive electrification and in addition due to defossilization of the electricity supply, as indicated by Bogdanov et al. [95].”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Bogdanov et al. [95] Bogdanov, D., Farfan, J., Sadovskaia, K., Aghahosseini, A., Child, M., Gulagi, A., Oyewo, A.S., Barbosa, L.D.S.N.S., and Breyer, C. (2019). Radical transformation pathway towards sustainable electricity via evolutionary steps. Nat. Commun., 10. source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • The authors state this as an assumption: The TTW GHG emission values for hydrogen and electricity as final energy fuels are zero.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The road transport mode is the dominant transport mode, not only in terms of final energy demand, but also in GHG emissions.

    “Figure 14 depicts the GHG emissions of the entire transport sector and highlights the road transport mode, as the dominant transport mode, not only in terms of final energy demand, but also in GHG emissions.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: The TTW GHG emission values for hydrogen and electricity as final energy fuels are zero.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning

    The two fuels gaining most ground are electricity and hydrogen, due to higher efficiencies compared to current power train options.

    “The two fuels gaining most ground are electricity and hydrogen, both due to the higher efficiencies compared to current power train options.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning

    Final energy demand of marine grows from 11.5% to 27.5% and of aviation from 9.8% to 24.2% for 2015 and 2050, respectively.

    “This leads to a substantial increase in final energy demand of marine, growing from 11.5% to 27.5% and of aviation growing from 9.8% to 24.2% for 2015 and 2050, respectively.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: Long-distance shipping and flights cannot be directly electrified.

  • The quote only partly states this claim.

    Findingown data

    In this study, the LDV stock share of ICE vehicles declines from 99.6% in 2015 to 6.9% in 2050.

    “ICE | % | 99.6 | 97.3 | 90.4 | 72.6 | 46.3 | 25.3 | 12.1 | 6.9”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Findingnone given

    The well-to-wheel efficiency of biofuels is comparable to electricity-based synthetic fuels.

    “The well-to-wheel efficiency of biofuels is comparable to electricity-based synthetic fuels, whereas the latter are not restricted much by area or other sustainability issues.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    In this study, total global final energy demand of the transport sector is 31,613 TWh/a in 2015 and 32,542 TWh/a in 2050.

    “Total | TWh/a | 31,613 34,799 35,848 35,609 33,761 32,177 31,758 | 32,542”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    The global GDP may grow approximately 4-5% per year in the period 2040-2050, as adopted by Toktarova et al.

    “it was evaluated that the global GDP may grow approximately 4-5% per year in that period, as also adopted by Toktarova et al. [63]”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Toktarova et al. [63] Toktarova, 2019, Long term load projection in high resolution for all countries globally, Int. J. Electr. Power Energy Syst. source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The total power train efficiency of ships in 2015 is about 28% for ICE and about 60% for battery-electric ships.

    “This is linked to a fuel-to-power efficiency of 40% [36] and battery full charge cycle efficiency of 92%, resulting in a total power train efficiency of about 28% and 60% for ICE and battery-electric ships, respectively for 2015.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [36] Horvath, 2018, Techno-economic analysis of a decarbonized shipping sector: Technology suggestions for a fleet in 2030 and 2040, Energy Convers. Manag. source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The energy consumption for 2W/3W BEV is estimated to be around 3-5 kWh_el/100 km for present vehicles, considered constant for the entire transition period.

    “The energy consumption for 2W/3W BEV is estimated to be around 3-5 kWh el /100 km for present vehicles according to [9], which is considered to be a constant value for the entire transition period.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [9] International Energy Agency (IEA) (2018). Global EV Outlook 2018. Towards Cross-Model Electrification, International Energy Agency.

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Specific energy demand for MDV ICE and HDV ICE is 4.8 and 1.6 MJ/t-km for 2015 and 2.7 and 0.8 MJ/t-km for 2050, adopted from [34].

    “Specific energy demand for MDV ICE and HDV ICE is 4.8 and 1.6 MJ/t-km for 2015 and 2.7 and 0.8 MJ/t-km for 2050, adopted from [34].”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [34] Greenpeace. Energy [r] Evolution (2015). A Sustainable World Energy Outlook 2015, 100% Renewable Energy for All, Greenpeace. Energy [r] Evolution. Available online: https://www.greenpeace.de/sites/www.greenpeace.de/files/publications/greenpeace_energy-revolution_erneuerbare_2050_20150921.pdf.

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The utility factor is calculated to be 0.7 for the battery-electric range of current vehicles with about 10 kWh of battery capacity and is expected to grow to 0.78 by 2050.

    “The utility factor is calculated to be 0.7 for the battery-electric range of current vehicles with about 10 kWh of battery capacity [19] and is expected to grow to 0.78 by 2050.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [19] Hummel, P. (2018, March 01). Available online: https://neo.ubs.com/shared/d1wkuDlEbYPjF/.

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The specific energy consumption for 2W/3W ICE is 65% higher than for the BEV power train, and is assumed constant throughout the transition period.

    “Mendes et al. [75] show that the specific energy consumption for 2W/3W ICE is 65% higher than for the BEV power train, and is also assumed constant throughout the transition period”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Mendes et al. [75] Mendes, 2015, Introducing specific power to bicycle and motorcycles: Application to electric mobility, Transp. Res. Part C Emerg. Technol. source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The utility factors for MDV PHEV and HDV PHEV are 0.4 and 0.3, respectively, throughout the transition period.

    “The utility factors for MDV PHEV and HDV PHEV are considered from [77] as a constant value of 0.4 and 0.3, respectively, throughout the transition period.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [77] Transportation Research Center—University of Vermont (UVM TRC) (2018, April 15). Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle Research Project: Phase II Report. Available online: http://www.greenmtn.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/phev-final-report-april2010.pdf.

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The driving forces for demand development in transportation are industrialization, globalization, and urbanization.

    “The driving forces for the demand development in transportation are, according to Ribeiro et al. [58] and Royal Automobile Club Foundation [59] industrialization, globalization, and urbanization.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Ribeiro et al. [58] Kahn Ribeiro, S., Kobayashi, S., Beuthe, M., Gasca, J., Greene, D., Lee, D.S., Muromachi, Y., Newton, P.J., Plotkin, S., and Sperling, D. (2007). Transport and its infrastructure. Climate Change 2007: Mitigation; Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press.

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites Royal Automobile Club Foundation [59] Royal Automobile Club Foundation (2017, March 12). Travel Demand and its Causes. Motoring towards 2050-Roads and Reality. Available online: https://www.racfoundation.org/assets/rac_foundation/content/downloadables/roads%20and%20reality%20-%20bayliss%20-%20travel%20demand%20and%20its%20causes%20-%20150708%20-%20background%20paper%203.pdf.

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given

    The rail mode will remain the least energy-demanding compared to other transport modes.

    “The rail mode will remain the least energy-demanding, compared to other transport modes.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Marine diesel engine efficiency is 46% in 2030 and 47% in 2040.

    “Horvath et al. [36] provide efficiency values for marine diesel engines for 2030 and 2040 to be 46% and 47%, respectively, and for 2050, 48% is assumed.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [36] Horvath, 2018, Techno-economic analysis of a decarbonized shipping sector: Technology suggestions for a fleet in 2030 and 2040, Energy Convers. Manag. source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Over 92% of transport energy is provided by oil, 3% by natural gas, 1% by electricity, and other fuels contribute 4%.

    “Over 92% of the energy for transport is provided by oil, 3% by natural gas (NG), 1% by electricity, and other fuels contribute 4%.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [1] International Energy Agency (IEA) (2017). World Energy Outlook 2017, International Energy Agency.

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The LDV FCEV fuel tank capex is fixed at 1.9 €/kWhH2, and the power train capex declines from 284 €/kW in 2015 to 48 €/kW in 2050.

    “The fuel tank capex is considered to be fixed at 1.9 €/kWh H2 , whereas the power train capex declines from 284 €/kW in 2015 to 48 €/kW in 2050, according to estimates of UBS [19].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [19] Hummel, P. (2018, March 01). Available online: https://neo.ubs.com/shared/d1wkuDlEbYPjF/.

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data

    For BUS, the BEV option is by far the least LCOM option, so other vehicle types may not play a significant role in the years to come.

    “For BUS, the BEV option is by far the least LCOM option, so it may be expected that the other vehicle types may not play a significant role in the years to come.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    BUS BEV battery capacity is 333 kWh.

    “BUS BEV battery capacity is set to 333 kWh, according to Lajunen and Lipman [100]”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [100] Lajunen, 2016, Lifecycle cost assessment and carbon dioxide emissions of diesel natural gas, hybrid electric, fuel cell hybrid and electric transit buses, Energy source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data

    The results for HDV show similarities to LDV; however, HDV BEV and HDV FCEV LCOM are very close, so a co-existence of both vehicle types may occur.

    “The results for HDV show similarities to LDV; however, the HDV BEV and HDV FCEV LCOM are very close, so that a co-existence of both vehicle types may occur.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    PHEV is the second-highest LCOM option; however, it may still be competitive in many parts of the world, since it can overcome infrastructure restrictions for electricity supply in developing and emerging countries.

    “PHEV is the second-highest LCOM option; however, it may be still competitive in many parts of the world, since this option can overcome infrastructure restrictions for electricity supply in developing and emerging countries, as liquid fuels can still be used, as a kind of backup for weak electricity supply grids.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    For LDV and in particular HDV, the FCEV option is rather close, so a technological co-existence of both vehicle types seems rather likely.

    “However, for LDV and in particular HDV, the FCEV option is rather close, so that a technological co-existence of both vehicle types seems to be rather likely.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The scenario reflects the ambitious 1.5 °C target of the Paris Agreement and sustainability guardrails.

    “Such a scenario will reflect the ambitious 1.5 °C target of the Paris Agreement [2] and sustainability guardrails [57].”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [2] United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (2016, August 13). Adaptation of the Paris Agreement, COP21. Available online: https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09r01.pdf.

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [57] Child, 2018, Sustainability guardrails for energy scenarios of the global energy transition, Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Tesla claims that by 2020 there will be 900 kWh battery capacity for its HDV BEV at 143 €/kWh.

    “Tesla [106] claims that by 2020 there will be 900 kWh battery capacity for their HDV BEV for 143 €/kWh cap”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [106] Ars Technica (2017, October 24). Tesla Announce Truck Prices Lower than Experts Predicted. Available online: https://arstechnica.com/cars/2017/11/teslas-expected-truck-prices-are-much-lower-than-experts-predicted/.

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    China has by far the highest number of BUS BEV operating, with Shenzhen in the lead, and at the end of 2017 all city buses in Shenzhen switched to BUS BEV.

    “This fundamental insight seems to be recognized in China, since there are by far the highest number of BUS BEV operating in China [146], with Shenzhen in the lead, at the end of 2017, all city buses have switched to the BUS BEV option [147,148].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites [146] Du, 2019, Evaluating the technological evolution of battery electric buses: China as a case, Energy source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [147] Transport and Environment (2019, May 01). Electric Buses Arrive on Time. Market Place, Economy, Technology, Environmental and Policy Perspectives for Fully Electric Buses in the UE. Available online: https://www.transportenvironment.org/sites/te/files/publications/Electric%20buses%20arrive%20on%20time.pdf.

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [148] Zart, N. (2017). 100% Electric Bus Fleet for Shenzhen (Population 11.9 Million) by End of 2017. Clean Technica. Available online: https://cleantechnica.com/2017/11/12/100-electric-bus-fleet-shenzhen-pop-11-9-million-end-2017/.

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationcitation

    The battery capacity for LDV BEV and PHEV is 70 and 10 kWh, respectively.

    “The battery capacity for BEV and PHEV is calculated to be 70 and 10 kWh, respectively by multiplying all-electric range km of the vehicle to its specific efficiency in kWh/km [19].”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [19] Hummel, P. (2018, March 01). Available online: https://neo.ubs.com/shared/d1wkuDlEbYPjF/.

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Hydrogen appears as a valuable option for the energy transition in the transport sector because energy density for long-distance transportation is a severe challenge for batteries.

    “Since energy density for long-distance transportation is a severe challenge for batteries, hydrogen appears as a valuable option for the energy transition in the transport sector.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Hydrogen is emission-free.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given

    The longer the transport distances, the more relative efficiency matters.

    “The longer the transport distances, the more relative efficiency matters.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The most GHG emissions of combustible vehicles happen at TTW (downstream), while emissions of alternative fuels mostly happen in WTT (upstream).

    “The most GHG emissions of combustible vehicles happen at TTW (downstream), while emissions of alternative fuels mostly happen in WTT (upstream) [149].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [149] Creutzig, 2011, Climate policies for road transport revisited (I): Evaluation of the current framework, Energy Policy source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • The authors state this as an assumption: The TTW GHG emission values for hydrogen and electricity as final energy fuels are zero.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The fuel and power train switch from liquid fuels to hydrogen and in particular electricity allows a growth of only 3% in final energy fuels to enable a 105% growth in mechanical energy, documenting the low efficiency of combustion processes.

    “The fuel and power train switch from liquid fuels to hydrogen and in particular electricity allows that a growth of only 3% in final energy fuels enables a 105% growth in mechanical energy, documenting the low efficiency of combustion processes.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    A first modeling in full hourly resolution of a zero GHG emission transport sector demonstrates the technical feasibility and economic viability of a zero GHG emission transport sector.

    “A first modeling in full hourly resolution of a zero GHG emission transport sector is presented by Ram et al. [157], which further demonstrates the technical feasibility and economic viability of a zero GHG emission transport sector.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Ram et al. [157] Ram, M., Bogdanov, D., Aghahosseini, A., Gulagi, A., Oyewo, A.S., Child, M., Caldera, U., Sadovskaia, K., Farfan, J., and Barbosa, L.S.N.S. (2019). Global Energy System Based on 100% Renewable Energy—Power, Heat, Transport and Desalination Sectors. Lappeenranta University of Technology and Energy Watch Group. Available online: http://energywatchgroup.org/wp-content/uploads/EWG_LUT_100RE_All_Sectors_Global_Report_2019.pdf.

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Electricity-based liquid fuels are an option for power-to-gas-based LNG in marine transportation and Fischer-Tropsch-based jet fuel in aviation, so biofuel demand can be reduced to a minimum level.

    “In addition, electricity-based liquid fuels are an option for power-to-gas-based LNG in marine transportation and in particular for Fischer-Tropsch-based jet fuel in the aviation sector, so that the biofuel demand can be reduced to a minimum level”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The much lower relative loss in 2050 is mainly driven by direct electrification of the road transport mode, while the penalty of power-to-fuels for marine and aviation does not limit dramatically the overall increase in transport sector efficiency.

    “The much lower relative loss in 2050 is mainly driven by direct electrification of the road transport mode, while the penalty of power-to-fuels for the marine and aviation transport mode does not limit dramatically the overall increase in transport sector efficiency.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    77% of all sustainably available biomass would be needed to cover the remaining LNG and liquid hydrocarbon demand in the transport sector in 2050, massively limiting the available biomass resource potential for other energy sectors.

    “This means that 77% of all sustainably available biomass would be needed to only cover the remaining LNG and liquid hydrocarbon demand in the transport sector in 2050, and thus massively limiting the available biomass resource potential for the other energy sectors.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    PHEV may be a compromise in developing and emerging countries, even though they are the second-highest LCOM.

    “PHEV may be a compromise in developing and emerging countries, even though they are the second-highest LCOM.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The total available sustainable biomass potential for the energy sector is about 100 EJ (27,780 TWh) without compromising sustainability constraints, and could provide biofuels of about 16,670 TWh according to an efficiency of about 60% of biomass-to-biofuel conversion.

    “Creutzig et al. [156] clearly point out that the total available sustainable biomass potential for the energy sector is about 100 EJ (27,780 TWh) without compromising sustainability constraints, such as sustainability guardrails [57], and thus could provide biofuels of about 16,670 TWh according to the efficiency of about 60% of biomass-to-biofuel conversion.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Creutzig et al. [156] Creutzig, 2015, Bioenergy and climate change mitigation: An assessment, Glob. Change Biol. Bioenergy source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [57] Child, 2018, Sustainability guardrails for energy scenarios of the global energy transition, Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The dominance of BEV is driven by high efficiency power trains, competitive fuel costs, declining GHG emissions, projected rapid cost decline of batteries, and lower complexity compared to ICE vehicles leading to lower maintenance costs.

    “which is driven by high efficiency power trains, competitive fuel costs, declining GHG emissions, projected rapid cost decline of batteries and finally a lower level of complexity compared to ICE vehicles, leading to lower maintenance costs.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The overall transport sector WTW efficiency increase is a clear benefit of overall direct and indirect electrification, further supported by a fuel switch from less efficient liquid hydrocarbon combustion to higher efficient hydrogen use in fuel cells and highly efficient electricity in electric drives.

    “which is a clear benefit of overall direct and indirect electrification of the transport sector, which is further supported by a fuel switch from less efficient liquid hydrocarbon combustion to higher efficient hydrogen use in fuel cells and highly efficient use of electricity in electric drives.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationcitation

    BEV LCOM are lower than those of ICE vehicles and GHG emissions are lower, leading to GHG emissions reduction benefits.

    “not only BEV LCOM are lower than those of ICE vehicles, but also GHG emissions, leading to GHG emissions reduction benefits, as found earlier in different regions and for different applications due to solar PV in the power sector [155].”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [155] Breyer, 2015, Profitable climate mitigation: The case of greenhouse gas emission reduction benefits enabled by solar photovoltaic systems, Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Renewable electricity-based electrolysis can provide clean and low-cost hydrogen, improving the overall economics of hydrogen as a fuel for the transport sector.

    “However, renewable electricity-based electrolysis can provide clean and low-cost hydrogen [126], also improving the overall economics of hydrogen as a fuel for the transport sector.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [126] Fasihi, M., and Breyer, C. (2020). Baseload electricity and hydrogen supply based on hybrid PV-Wind power plants. J. Clean. Prod., 243. source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationcitation

    Hydrogen may only complement direct electricity in the road mode; in marine and aviation, hydrogen has the potential to emerge as the dominant fuel for long-distance transportation if existing technical challenges are overcome.

    “Hydrogen may only complement direct electricity in the road mode; however, in marine and aviation, hydrogen would have the potential to emerge as the dominant fuel for long-distance transportation [36], in case existing technical challenges are overcome.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [36] Horvath, 2018, Techno-economic analysis of a decarbonized shipping sector: Technology suggestions for a fleet in 2030 and 2040, Energy Convers. Manag. source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given

    All road vehicle types are expected to further increase efficiency, and a shift from ICE to BEV and some FCEV leads to higher efficiency for the road mode, in particular BEV.

    “All road vehicle types are expected to further increase efficiency, which is further improved by a shift from ICE to BEV and some FCEV, wherein the two latter lead to higher efficiency for the road mode, in particular BEV.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationcitation

    Hydrocarbon fuels can still be used in the transport sector but have to be defossilized, which can be achieved by biofuels that are volume constrained and can cause sustainability issues, or by electricity-based liquid fuels.

    “Hydrocarbon fuels can still be used in the transport sector, but they have to be defossilized, which can be achieved by biofuels that are volume constrained and can cause sustainability issues, such as for palm oil, or by electricity-based liquid fuels.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given

    Hydrogen produced via SMR still causes GHG emissions and may not have much market chances in a climate-constrained energy system.

    “Hydrogen produced via SMR still causes GHG emissions and may not have much market chances in a climate-constrained energy system.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Renewable electricity costs further decline, and solar PV is projected to continue outstanding cost decline to historically unrivalled levels, enabling multiple power-to-X processes.

    “Renewable electricity costs further decline [95], and thereof solar PV is projected to continue the outstanding cost decline to historically unrivalled levels [162] enabling multiple power-to-X processes [163].”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites [95] Bogdanov, D., Farfan, J., Sadovskaia, K., Aghahosseini, A., Child, M., Gulagi, A., Oyewo, A.S., Barbosa, L.D.S.N.S., and Breyer, C. (2019). Radical transformation pathway towards sustainable electricity via evolutionary steps. Nat. Commun., 10. source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [162] Vartiainen, E., Masson, G., Breyer, C., Moser, D., and Medina, E.R. (2019). Impact of Weighted Average Cost of Capital, Capital Expenditure and Other Parameters on Future Utility-Scale PV Levelised Cost of Electricity. Prog. Photovolt. Res. Appl., in press. source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [163] Haegel, 2019, Terawatt-scale photovoltaics: Transform global energy, Science source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Grandell et al. conclude that silver would be the most critical metal for a global energy transition, and thus highly critical for the transport sector, since solar PV is the dominant source of energy for the transport sector.

    “Grandell et al. [189] conclude that silver would be the most critical metal for a global energy transition, and thus also highly critical for the transport sector, since solar PV is the dominant source of energy for the transport sector as discussed by Breyer et al. [81].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Grandell et al. [189] Grandell, 2016, Role of critical metals in the future markets of clean energy technologies, Renew. Energy source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites Breyer et al. [81]

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Brown et al. find fast defossilizing road and rail transport modes due to high efficiency and attractive economics, further supported by high flexibility benefits due to smart charging and vehicle-to-grid services.

    “Brown et al. [185] find fast defossilizing road and rail transport modes due to high efficiency and attractive economics, further supported by high flexibility benefits due to smart charging and vehicle-to-grid services.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Brown et al. [185] Brown, T., Schäfer, M., and Greiner, M. (2019). Sectoral interactions as carbon dioxide emissions approach zero in a Highly-Renewable European energy system. Energies, 12. source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationcitation

    Research on transition dynamics indicates that the speed of transition assumed in this research is possible and not out of reach.

    “Research on transition dynamics indicate that the speed of transition assumed in this research is possible and not out of reach.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 4 sources checked
    • cites [169] Teske, S. (2019). Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals, Global and Regional 100% Renewable Energy Scenarios with Non-Energy GHG Pathways for +1.5 °C and +2 °C, Springer. source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [170] Jacobson, 2018, Matching demand with supply at low cost in 139 countries among 20 world regions with 100% intermittent wind, water, and sunlight (WWS) for all purposes, Renew. Energy source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [171] Löffler, K., Hainsch, K., Burandt, T., Oei, P.Y., Kemfert, C., and Hirschhausen, C.V. (2017). Designing a model for the Global energy system-GENeSYS-MOD: An Application of the Open-Source energy modeling system (OSeMOSYS). Energies, 10. source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [172] Pursiheimo, 2019, Inter-sectoral effects of high renewable energy share in global energy system, Renew. Energy source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The drastic primary energy switch from 95% fossil sources in 2015 to 98% renewable electricity in 2050 is a consequence of several major trends, such as drastically declining renewable electricity and battery cost, enabling massive road transport electrification and affordable synthetic fuels, and the requirement of a zero GHG emission energy system according to the Paris Agreement, which is not可能

    “The drastic primary energy switch from 95% fossil sources in 2015 to 98% renewable electricity in 2050 is a consequence of several major trends, such as drastically declining renewable electricity and battery cost, enabling not only a massive road transport electrification, but also affordable synthetic fuels, and finally the requirement of a zero GHG emission energy system according to the Paris”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The Greenpeace E[R] advanced scenario achieves a 100% RE share in 2050, leading to merely 15,703 TWh final energy demand in 2050.

    “The Greenpeace E[R] advanced scenario [34] introduces extremely high RE penetration to its transport sector scenario achieving a 100% RE share in 2050, leading to merely 15,703 TWh final energy demand in 2050”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [34] Greenpeace. Energy [r] Evolution (2015). A Sustainable World Energy Outlook 2015, 100% Renewable Energy for All, Greenpeace. Energy [r] Evolution. Available online: https://www.greenpeace.de/sites/www.greenpeace.de/files/publications/greenpeace_energy-revolution_erneuerbare_2050_20150921.pdf.

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationcitation

    Indications of this study and results by Jacobson et al., Teske and Pursiheimo clearly indicate a massive increase in electricity demand for a sustainable transport sector, whereas this study and Jacobson et al. project a transport sector practically fully based on electricity in 2050, via direct and indirect electrification, avoiding sustainability conflicts of biofuels and respecting guardrails.

    “Indications of this study and also results by Jacobson et al. [170], Teske [169] and Pursiheimo et al. [172] clearly indicate a massive increase in electricity demand for a sustainable transport sector, whereas this study and Jacobson et al. [170] project a transport sector practically fully based on electricity in 2050, via direct and indirect electrification, and thus avoiding sustainability”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites [170] Jacobson, 2018, Matching demand with supply at low cost in 139 countries among 20 world regions with 100% intermittent wind, water, and sunlight (WWS) for all purposes, Renew. Energy source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [169] Teske, S. (2019). Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals, Global and Regional 100% Renewable Energy Scenarios with Non-Energy GHG Pathways for +1.5 °C and +2 °C, Springer. source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [172] Pursiheimo, 2019, Inter-sectoral effects of high renewable energy share in global energy system, Renew. Energy source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Mathiesen et al. point out that variable renewable energy can be linked to new sources of flexibility, such as synthetic fuel storage and BEV in a Smart Energy System design, which may even allow a bioenergy-free 100% renewable energy system.

    “This is confirmed by Mathiesen et al. [184] who point out that variable renewable energy can be linked to new sources of flexibility, such as synthetic fuel storage and BEV in a Smart Energy System design, which may even allow a bioenergy-free 100% renewable energy system.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Mathiesen et al. [184] Mathiesen, 2015, Smart energy systems for coherent 100% renewable energy and transport solutions, Appl. Energy source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Progress in tackling this historic challenge is much too slow and GHG emissions reduction is not on track at all.

    “Progress in tackling this historic challenge is much too slow and GHG emissions reduction is not on track at all [196].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [196] Pahle, 2018, Sequencing to ratchet up climate policy stringency, Nat. Clim. Change source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Scientists all around the world have confirmed that the claims and concerns of the global youth are more than justified, and a massive and radical response is required to avoid a collapse of civilization.

    “Scientists all around the world have confirmed that the claims and concerns of the global youth are more than justified [92,93], and a massive and radical response is required to avoid a collapse of civilization.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [92] Hagedorn, 2019, Concerns of young protesters are justified, Science source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [93] Hagedorn, 2019, The concerns of the young protesters are justified: A statement by scientists for future concerning the protests for more climate protection, GAIA source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Highly renewable energy scenarios have been coupled to analyze the impact on jobs, as done for Greenpeace scenarios, by Jacobson et al., and by Ram et al. who integrated jobs related to electricity storage.

    “Highly renewable energy scenarios have been coupled to analyze the impact on jobs, as done since several editions for the Greenpeace scenarios [34], but also by Jacobson et al. [90] and recently by Ram et al. [194] who integrated for the first time jobs related to electricity storage.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites [34] Greenpeace. Energy [r] Evolution (2015). A Sustainable World Energy Outlook 2015, 100% Renewable Energy for All, Greenpeace. Energy [r] Evolution. Available online: https://www.greenpeace.de/sites/www.greenpeace.de/files/publications/greenpeace_energy-revolution_erneuerbare_2050_20150921.pdf.

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [90] Jacobson, 2017, 100% Clean and Renewable Wind, Water, and Sunlight All-Sector Energy Roadmaps for 139 Countries of the World, Joule source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites Ram et al. [194]

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Deng et al. and WWF indicate 26% electricity share in 2050, with the rest of the fuel share staying with biofuels.

    “Deng et al. [174] and WWF [173] indicate 26% electricity share in 2050, and the rest of the fuel share stays with biofuels, which is the highest biofuel share of all scenarios.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [174] Deng, 2012, Transition to a fully sustainable global energy system, Energy Strategy Rev. source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [173] World Wildlife Fund (WWF) (2018, May 19). Available online: https://www.google.com/search?client=firefoxbe&q=World+Wildlife+Fund+%28WWF%29.+The+energy+report+100%25+renewable+energy+by+2050.+2011%2C+Washington+DC%2C+USA.+Available+online%3A.

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The IEA World Energy Outlook New Policy Scenario projects high fossil-fuel demand (90%) and low electricity penetration, leading to a strong demand increase until 2040 about a quarter higher than in this study.

    “The World Energy Outlook of the International Energy Agency (IEA) [176] projects in a very similar way in the New Policy Scenario as ExxonMobil a high fossil-fuel demand (90%) and low electricity penetration in the total final energy demand, which leads to a strong demand increase until 2040, which is about a quarter higher than in this study.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [176] International Energy Agency (IEA) (2018). World Energy Outlook 2018, International Energy Agency.

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The impact on the transport sector may be that a drastic reaction may require zero GHG emissions for 2040 or even earlier, implying substantially more ambitious measures than discussed in this paper.

    “The impact on the transport sector may be that a drastic reaction may require zero GHG emissions for 2040 or even earlier, implying substantially more ambitious measures than discussed in this paper.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductcitation

    All known global 100% renewable energy studies presenting details for the transport sector are included in the comparison.

    “All known global 100% renewable energy studies presenting details for the transport sector are included [166].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [166] Hansen, 2019, Status and perspectives on 100% renewable energy systems, Energy source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given

    The conversion efficiency of electricity to liquid hydrocarbons of about 53% can compete with biomass to liquid hydrocarbons of 48-80%, while the latter is mainly based on area limited energy crops, whereas the area for renewable electricity based on solar and wind resources is practically not limited on a global scale.

    “The conversion efficiency of electricity to liquid hydrocarbons of about 53% can well compete with biomass to liquid hydrocarbons of 48-80%, while the latter is mainly based on area limited energy crops, whereas the area for renewable electricity based on solar and wind resources is practically not limited on a global scale.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: The area for renewable electricity based on solar and wind resources is practically not limited on a global scale.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premiseown data

    In the Greenpeace E[R] advanced scenario, electricity and hydrogen represent final energy demand of 8122 TWh (51.7%) and 3900 TWh (24.8%), complemented by biofuels (13.9%) and synthetic fuels (9.5%).

    “Electricity and hydrogen represent a final energy demand of 8122 TWh (51.7%) and 3900 TWh (24.8%), respectively, complemented by biofuels (13.9%) and synthetic fuels (9.5%).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The presented transition in the transport sector in this paper is technically and economically possible, but has to be driven by societal will for change, which leads to a likelihood whether the proposed scenario can be achieved.

    “The presented transition in the transport sector in this paper is technically and economically possible, however, this has to be driven by societal will for change, which leads to a likelihood whether the proposed scenario can be achieved.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The high dynamic flexibility of electrolyzers in conjunction with decreasing capex allows a most valuable demand response leading to very effective energy system integration of variable renewables, reducing curtailment, higher costing storage demand and total system cost.

    “The high dynamic flexibility of electrolyzers [181] in conjunction with decreasing capex [95,126] allows a most valuable demand response leading to a very effective energy system integration of variable renewables, in particular solar PV and wind energy, thus reducing curtailment, higher costing storage demand and total system cost.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites [181] Breyer, 2015, Power-to-Gas as an Emerging profitable business through creating an integrated value chain, Energy Procedia source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [95] Bogdanov, D., Farfan, J., Sadovskaia, K., Aghahosseini, A., Child, M., Gulagi, A., Oyewo, A.S., Barbosa, L.D.S.N.S., and Breyer, C. (2019). Radical transformation pathway towards sustainable electricity via evolutionary steps. Nat. Commun., 10. source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [126] Fasihi, M., and Breyer, C. (2020). Baseload electricity and hydrogen supply based on hybrid PV-Wind power plants. J. Clean. Prod., 243. source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Greim et al. conclude that a continuously growing road transport mode cannot be matched with economically extractable lithium resource availability, leading to depletion of expected resource in the 2060s, earlier if recycling and collection rates of end-of-life batteries are not very close to 100%.

    “Greim et al. [188] conclude that a continuously growing road transport mode cannot be matched with the economically extractable lithium resource availability leading to an entirely depletion of expected resource in the 2060s, but even earlier if recycling rates and collection rates of end-of-life batteries would not be very close to 100%.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Greim et al. [188] Greim, P., Solomon, A.A., and Breyer, C. (2019). Availability of lithium for the global transition towards renewable based energy supply with focus on power and mobility, submitted.

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Detailed research by solar PV experts cannot confirm the silver concern as specific silver demand can be further reduced so that present silver cost level can be prolonged, and silver can be substituted by copper.

    “Detailed research by solar PV experts cannot confirm this concern as the specific silver demand can be further reduced [190] so that the present silver cost level can be prolonged, and furthermore silver can be substituted by copper so that an effective substitution is in place and applied as soon as required [190][191][192].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [190] Altermatt, 2018, Riding the workhorse of the industry: PERC, Photovolt. Int.

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [190][191][192]

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Junne et al. found indications for very challenging resource limitations for the transport sector, in particular due to materials neodymium, dysprosium, lithium, and cobalt needed for electric motors and lithium-ion batteries.

    “Junne et al. [187] found in a very first comparative study on highly renewable energy systems indications for very challenging resource limitations for the transport sector, in particular due to the materials neodymium, dysprosium, lithium, and cobalt, needed for electric motors and lithium-ion batteries.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Junne et al. [187] Junne, T., Wulff, N., Breyer, C., and Naegler, T. (2019). Critical materials in global low carbon energy scenarios: The case of dysprosium, neodymium, lithium and cobalt, submitted. source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Ramp-up of renewables has continuously generated new jobs in recent years as monitored by IRENA.

    “Ramp-up of renewables has continuously generated new jobs in recent years as monitored by IRENA [193].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites IRENA [193]

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The fast progressing anthropogenic climate change requires a fast and drastic response in radical GHG emission reductions to zero so that temperature rise can be limited to 1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels.

    “The fast progressing anthropogenic climate change [195] requires a fast and drastic response in radical GHG emission reductions to zero, the sooner the better, so that the temperature rise can be limited to 1.5 • C compared to pre-industrial levels.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [195] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2018, April 06). Available online: https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_final.pdf.

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given

    Synthetic fuels required for the marine and aviation mode need very low-cost electricity, high GHG emissions cost, and further scaled synthesis processes.

    “However, synthetic fuels required for the marine and aviation mode need very low-cost electricity, high GHG emissions cost, and further scaled synthesis processes.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given

    All required major technologies for the transport sector transition are known or already introduced to markets.

    “All required major technologies are known, or already introduced to markets.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Carbon Tracker International has indicated a stranded asset potential of the fossil oil and gas industry of more than 20 trillion USD, due to non-adaptive strategies of most players in this industry, which has a strong impact on the transport sector as the largest demand sector for fossil oil at present.

    “Carbon Tracker International [200] has indicated a stranded asset potential of the fossil oil and gas industry of more than 20 trillion USD, due to non-adaptive strategies of most players in this industry, which has a strong impact on the transport sector, as this is the largest demand sector for fossil oil at present.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Carbon Tracker International [200]

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Smith et al. do not assume stranded assets in the energy system, which can accelerate the transition substantially, since vested interests and lobbying power of owners of fixed factors such as fossil resources cannot be ignored.

    “Smith et al. [198] do not assume stranded assets in the energy system which can accelerate the transition substantially as pointed out by Kalkuhl et al. [199], since vested interests and lobbying power of owners of fixed factors such as fossil resources cannot be ignored.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Smith et al. [198] Smith, C.J., Forster, P.M., Allen, M., Fuglestvedt, J., Miller, R.J., Rogelj, J., and Zickfeld, K. (2019). Current fossil fuel infrastructure does not yet commit us to 1.5°C warming. Nat. Commun., 10. source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites Kalkuhl et al. [199] Kalkuhl, M., Steckel, J., and Edenhofer, O. (2019). All or nothing: Climate policy when assets can become stranded. J. Environ. Econ. Manag., in press. source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Interpretationreasoning

    More BEVs based on electricity assumed to be switched to renewable electricity drastically reduce GHG emissions in the road mode.

    “Then more BEV are based on electricity which is assumed to be also switched to renewable electricity, thus drastically reducing the GHG emissions in the road mode.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Electricity used by BEVs is assumed to be switched to renewable electricity.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given

    Renewable electricity will be the low-cost basis for direct and indirect electrification of the global transport sector.

    “Renewable electricity will be the low-cost basis for direct and indirect electrification of the global transport sector.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The majority GHG contribution of marine and aviation may induce fast-accelerating pressure on ship operators and airlines to drastically reduce their GHG emissions by fuel switch to defossilized fuels.

    “This will lead in 2035 and 2040 to a majority GHG emission contribution of marine and aviation transportation which may induce a fast-accelerating pressure on ship operators and airlines to drastically reduce their GHG emissions by fuel switch to defossilized fuels.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given

    The most important fuels for the transport sector during the energy transition will be electricity (based on renewable electricity) and hydrogen (produced with low-cost renewable electricity).

    “The most important fuels for the transport sector during the energy transition will be electricity, then based on renewable electricity, and hydrogen, which can be also produced with low-cost renewable electricity.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given

    Hydrogen could become the dominant fuel for long-distance marine and aviation transportation.

    “Hydrogen could also become the dominant fuel for long-distance marine and aviation transportation, but existing technical challenges may be backed by electricity-based synthetic hydrocarbon fuels, such as jet fuel produced in Fischer-Tropsch units.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Geels et al. emphasize that techno-economic analyses are crucial for analyzing and managing low-carbon transitions, but social, political and cultural processes have to be integrated for a multi-level perspective to capture dynamics, since dynamic policy mixes are required and politics are as important as.

    “Geels et al. [201] emphasize that techno-economic analyses are crucial for analyzing and managing low-carbon transitions, but social, political and cultural processes have to be integrated for a multi-level perspective to capture dynamics in broad, since dynamic policy mixes are required, politics are as important as”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Geels et al. [201] Geels, 2017, The Socio-Technical Dynamics of Low-Carbon Transitions, Joule source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given

    Long-distance transport by marine and aviation cannot switch to direct electric propulsion because battery energy density is too low for long distances.

    “Long-distance transport by marine and aviation suffers from the inability to switch to direct electric propulsion due to the too low energy density of batteries for long distances.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The global transport sector can achieve zero GHG emissions by 2050, fully supporting the ambitious 1.5°C target of the Paris Agreement from a technological perspective supported by fast improving economics.

    “The global transport sector can achieve zero GHG emissions by 2050 fully supporting the ambitious 1.5 • C target of the Paris Agreement from a technological perspective supported by fast improving economics.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The stable final energy demand despite increased transportation demand is driven by ongoing efficiency increase of all vehicle types, a shift to fuels enabling more efficient transportation, and massive direct electrification of the road mode in all road transport segments.

    “This surprising result is driven by ongoing efficiency increase of all vehicle types, a consequent shift to fuels enabling more efficient transportation and in particular a massive direct electrification of the road mode in all road transport segments.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Hydrogen-based FCEV may receive some market shares and can be regarded as a major backup option if BEV development is slower than expected.

    “Hydrogen-based FCEV are close to BEV and therefore may receive some market shares and can be regarded as major backup option in case of slower than expected BEV development.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Smith et al. conclude that a phase-out of carbon-intensive infrastructure at the end of its design lifetime enables a 1.5°C scenario at a 64% chance, close to the 67% probability used typically, and in agreement with this research.

    “Smith et al. [198] apply socio-economic constraints for an overall energy transition and conclude that a phase-out of carbon-intensive infrastructure at the end of its design lifetime enables a 1.5 • C scenario at a 64% chance, which is close to the 67% probability used typically, and in agreement to this research.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Smith et al. [198] Smith, C.J., Forster, P.M., Allen, M., Fuglestvedt, J., Miller, R.J., Rogelj, J., and Zickfeld, K. (2019). Current fossil fuel infrastructure does not yet commit us to 1.5°C warming. Nat. Commun., 10. source

      Not checked in the free run.

119 of 119

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Transport demand is rapidly increasing.

    “Transport demand is rapidly increasing and, with such high dependence on fossil fuels, there would be serious consequences for human health and energy security-related issues [4] as long as this trend continues.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Global transportation activity will increase by around 2.7% per annum for passengers and 2.3% per annum for freight in the decades to come.

    “It is projected that transport activities benefit from prosperous economic development in the decades to come, which may lead to an average increase in global transportation activity of around 2.7% and 2.3% per annum for passengers and freight, respectively.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Other dry cargoes in marine transport will grow exponentially from 2012 to 2050.

    “From 2012 to 2050, linear approximation is applied for bulk goods, oil transported, and coal freight, and exponential growth for other dry cargoes is assumed.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The specific energy demand for trains declines at a linear rate between 2010 and 2050, so intermediate periods can be linearly interpolated.

    “It is assumed that the specific energy demand for trains declines in a linear rate, so that all periods between 2010 and 2050 can be linearly interpolated.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Marine diesel engine efficiency in 2050 is 48%.

    “and for 2050, 48% is assumed.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Fuel-to-H2 efficiency increases from 53% to 65% between 2030 and 2050.

    “though fuel-to-H 2 efficiency is assumed to increase from 53% to 65%, from 2030 to 2050, based on [36].”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    As a first-order approximation, revenue passenger km per kg of jet fuel is treated as equal to passenger km per kg.

    “As a first order approximation rp-km/kg is considered to be p-km/kg.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    80% of all domestic shipping is within a range suitable for electrification.

    “it is assumed that 80% of all domestic shipping is within a range for electrification.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    From around 2035 onwards, hydrogen and electricity start to gain market shares for powering airplanes.

    “From around 2035 onwards, it is assumed that hydrogen and electricity start to gain market shares for powering airplanes”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    For 2050, 18.7% of flights measured in passenger kilometers will be electric and 37.4% will be fuel-cell hydrogen.

    “this research assumes for 2050 that 18.7% of the flights measured in passenger kilometers representing short haul flights of less than 1.5 h and half of the flights between 1.5 and 3 h will be electric and twice that is assumed to be contributed by fuel-cellbased flights fueled by hydrogen (37.4%)”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    80% of short-haul flights will be served by all-electric flights in the longer term, achieved between 2050 and 2060.

    “whereas 80% of these flights should be served by all-electric flights in the longer term, which is projected to be achieved between 2050 and 2060.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Battery specific cost declines by 7.9% per year until 2030 and by 2% per year until 2050.

    “A cost reduction of 7.9% per year is assumed until 2030, based on BNEF and UBS assumptions, and 2% per year until 2050.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Power train cost declines by 7.9% per year until 2030 and by 2% per year thereafter.

    “The power train cost reduction is assumed at 7.9% per year until 2030 and 2% per year then onwards [19,97].”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    MDV ICE capex stays stable over the transition period.

    “MDV ICE capex is assumed to stay stable, according to Yeon and Thomas [102]”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Vehicle lifetimes for all vehicle types stay constant until 2050.

    “Vehicle lifetimes for all vehicle types are assumed to stay constant until 2050.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Battery lifetime is identical for BEV and PHEV.

    “Battery lifetime is assumed to be identical for BEV and PHEV, as discussed by Guenther et al. [113].”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Lithium-ion technology is the standard battery for 2W/3W vehicles.

    “lithium-ion technology is assumed as the standard”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    LDV annual mileage is roughly 10,000 km.

    “which is assumed to be roughly 10,000 km for LDV.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    No reduction in efficiency is assumed by 2050.

    “since no reduction in efficiency is assumed.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The load factor for each transport segment is identical within each vehicle category.

    “The load factor for each transport segment is assumed to be identical within each vehicle category.”
    “For example, in the case of LDV BEV, the same average number of passengers in the vehicle as in LDV ICE is assumed.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The load factor for MDV and HDV is identical, independent of vehicle type.

    “The load factor for MDV and HDV is measured in tons per vehicle, and it is assumed to be identical, independent of the vehicle type.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The TTW GHG emission values for hydrogen and electricity as final energy fuels are zero.

    “The TTW values for hydrogen and electricity as a final energy fuel are zero.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Hydrogen is emission-free.

    “The final energy fuel hydrogen is emission-free”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Newly sold vehicles replace decommissioned vehicles in the existing stock at the end of their lifetimes.

    “Newly sold vehicles replace decommissioned vehicles in the existing stock at the end of their lifetimes.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Long-distance shipping and flights cannot be directly electrified.

    “As long-distance shipping and flights cannot be directly electrified, the two transport modes marine and aviation cannot benefit from the efficiency gains of electric ships and planes”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    LNG as a marine fuel suffers from the possibility of methane leakage, a major threat due to the very high global warming potential of methane emissions.

    “LNG as a marine fuel suffers from the possibility of methane leakage, which is a major threat for this fuel option due to the very high global warming potential of methane emissions.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Zero GHG emissions for the aviation sector may not be possible with fuel measures alone because contrail-cirrus formation cannot be reduced to zero.

    “recent research indicates that zero GHG emissions for the aviation sector may not be possible with fuel measures alone, since contrail-cirrus formation cannot be reduced to zero”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The area for renewable electricity based on solar and wind resources is practically not limited on a global scale.

    “whereas the area for renewable electricity based on solar and wind resources is practically not limited on a global scale.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Electricity used by BEVs is assumed to be switched to renewable electricity.

    “Then more BEV are based on electricity which is assumed to be also switched to renewable electricity, thus drastically reducing the GHG emissions in the road mode.”
29 of 29

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

  • Rail continues to be the least energy-demanding mode of transportation.

    “Investment in public transit is crucial, especially rail, which continues to be the least energy-demanding mode of transportation [96].”

    From A National and Regional Greenhouse Gas Breakeven Assessment of EVs across North America (2023) · cites this paper as [96]

    The Introduction describes rail as energy efficient, but §3.2.1 (Specific Energy Demand; page unavailable) explicitly ranks ships ahead of trains for freight energy efficiency. That contradicts the unqualified claim that rail is the least energy-demanding transportation mode. (LLM, conf=0.84)

    Checked by a reasoning model — may be wrong.

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • Full electrification of land transport and power-to-fuels for aviation and shipping can completely decarbonize the transport sector while decreasing primary energy required per unit of end-use energy.

    “In most ambitious transport energy models, full electrification of land transport and power-to-fuels for aviation and shipping can completely decarbonize the transport sector while also decreasing primary energy required per unit of end-use energy, in particular in electric land transport 36 .”

    From Demand-side solutions to climate change mitigation consistent with high levels of well-being (2022) · cites this paper as [36]

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.

  • Two-wheeler ICE energy demand exceeds the stated difference from BEV

    Major

    The method says two-/three-wheeler ICE consumption is 65% higher than BEV consumption. Table 17 gives 2015 values of 0.126 and 0.044 kWh/p-km, respectively: ICE consumption is about 186% higher.

  • ICE is not the highest-cost option from 2025 in every road segment

    Minor

    The discussion says ICE has the highest LCOM from 2025 onward. For BUS in 2025, Table 23 reports ICE at 1.314 €/km and FCEV at 1.753 €/km, making FCEV more costly.

  • Greenpeace advanced-scenario total differs from Table 27

    Minor

    The discussion reports 15,703 TWh of final energy demand in 2050 for the Greenpeace advanced scenario, whereas Table 27 lists 14,836 TWh.

  • World Energy Council scenario figures differ from Table 27

    Minor

    The discussion gives 37,169 TWh of demand and a 78% fossil-fuel share in 2050. Table 27 instead lists 33,134 TWh and 62% for that scenario.

  • Shell 2050 fossil-fuel share differs from Table 27

    Minor

    The discussion says Shell's fossil-hydrocarbon share falls to 80% in 2050, but Table 27 lists a 67% fossil-fuel share.

  • Zero-emissions conclusion conflicts with remaining fuel emissions

    Minor

    The paper concludes that transport reaches zero GHG emissions in 2050, but Table 11 reports nonzero 2050 WTW emissions of 8 gCO2eq/kWh for liquid fuel. Table 25 also reports 10,816 TWh of liquid-fuel demand in 2050.

  • Teske 1.5 °C electricity share differs from Table 27

    Minor

    The discussion states a 38% electricity share in 2050 for Teske's 1.5 °C scenario, while Table 27 lists 48%.

  • Jacobson scenario total differs from Table 27

    Minor

    The discussion gives Jacobson et al.'s 2050 final energy demand as 16,638 TWh, but Table 27 gives 13,113 TWh.

8 of 8

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

Research works printed but not linked: 6

  1. Fireman, H., and Arbor, A. (2018, June 28). Designing All Electric Ships. Ninth International Marine Design Conference 2006, University of Michigan, Department USA. NA&ME, Designing All Electric Ships, IMDC’06, 16 May 2006, NAVSEA. Available online: https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/presentation/1291/50a6ce6311ca5cf489f48081d249f0a87f5c.pdf.
  2. International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2017, January 18). Energy. 1996 IPCC. Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories: Reference Manual, Chapter 1 Energy. Italy. Available online: https://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/.
  3. Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development—Food and Agriculture (OECD-FAO) (2016). Agricultural Outlook, OECD. Available online: https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/agriculture-and-food/data/oecd-agriculture-statistics_agr-data-en.
  4. Vodovozov, V., and Lehtla, T. (2017, April 19). Power Accounting for Ship Electric Propulsion. Closing Conference of Doctoral School of Energy and Geotechnology II, Pärnu, Estonia. Available online: https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/6663/89cd6ba20958fb5e92e46d78683f66fecf89.pdf.
  5. Keiner, 2019, Cost and self-consumption optimized residential PV prosumer system in Germany covering residential electricity, heat and mobility demand, Int. J. Sustain. Energy Plan. Manag., 21, 35
  6. Altermatt, 2018, Riding the workhorse of the industry: PERC, Photovolt. Int., 41, 46

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Related

Authors
Khalili, S., Rantanen, E., Bogdanov, D., & Breyer, C.
Affiliations
Lappeenranta-Lahti University of Technology (FI)
Corresponding author
  • Khalili, Siavash
  • Breyer, Christian
ORCID
Venue
Energies
Publisher
MDPI AG
Published
2019-10-12
Volume
12
Issue
20
Pages
3870
ISSN
1996-1073 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.3390/en12203870
OpenAlex
W2979394821
Semantic Scholar
d8beb9d1e1135268eaef88c9b684589c43badaf9
Cited by
290
References
113
Citations by year
2026: 53 · 2025: 51 · 2024: 55 · 2023: 47 · 2022: 44 · 2021: 25 · 2020: 14 · 2019: 1
FWCI
4.47
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Energies (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
  • DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
Funders
Tekes, the Finnish Funding Agency for Innovation (40101/14)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Energy › Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment › Energy, Environment, and Transportation Policies
  • Physical Sciences › Engineering › Electrical and Electronic Engineering › Electric Vehicles and Infrastructure
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Advanced Aircraft Design and Technologies
Keywords
travel demand, transport energy demand, greenhouse gas emissions, electrification of transport, battery electric vehicles, fuel cell vehicles, synthetic fuels, hydrogen-based fuels, electric ships, electric aviation, railways, power-to-fuels, renewable electricity, fossil fuel demand, climate change mitigation, Paris Agreement

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-10-06.

Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-10-06.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

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