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European ornamental garden flora as an invasion debt under climate change
Open accessAbstract
Most naturalised and invasive alien plant species were originally introduced to regions for horticultural purposes. However, many regions now face an invasion debt from ornamental alien species, which have not yet naturalised. In this regard, climate change represents a threat as it may lower the barriers to naturalisation for some ornamental alien species. Identifying those species is extremely important for anticipating impending invasions. To identify predictors of naturalisation, we modelled the effects of climate, nursery availability and species characteristics on the current European naturalisation success of 2,073 ornamental aliens commonly planted in European gardens. We then used the resulting model together with climate projections for 2050 to forecast future naturalisation risks for the 1,583 species not yet naturalised in Europe. We found that non‐European naturalised range size, climatic suitability, propagule pressure, having a dioecious sexual system and plant height jointly explained current naturalisation success in Europe. By 2050, naturalisation probability projections increased by more than 0.1 for 41 species, and only decreased by more than 0.1 for one species. Policy implications. Using predictions based on our integrated model of alien ornamental naturalisation success, we identified species with high future naturalisation risk and species with high projected increases in naturalisation potential in Europe under climate change. This species list allows for prioritisation of monitoring and regulation of ornamental plants to mitigate the invasion debt.
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Many potential future invaders have already been introduced but have not yet become invasive or manifested an impact.
“Importantly, many potential future invaders have already been introduced (e.g. are grown in our gardens; Haeuser et al., 2018) but have not yet become invasive or manifested an impact.”
From Scientists' warning on invasive alien species (2020) · cites this paper as Haeuser et al., 2018
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Scientists' warning on invasive alien species
Pyšek, P., Hulme, P. E., Simberloff, D., Bacher, S., Blackburn, T. M., Carlton, J. T., Dawson, W., Essl, F., Foxcroft, L. C., Genovesi, P., et al. (2020) · Biological Reviews · doi:10.1111/brv.12627 · Cited by 2,234
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Metadata
- Authors
- Haeuser, E., Dawson, W., Thuiller, W., Dullinger, S., Block, S., Bossdorf, O., Carboni, M., Conti, L., Dullinger, I., Essl, F., Klonner, G., Moser, D., Münkemüller, T., Parepa, M., Talluto, M. V., Kreft, H., Pergl, J., Pyšek, P., Weigelt, P., Winter, M., Hermy, M., Van der Veken, S., Roquet, C., & van Kleunen, M.
- Affiliations
- University of Konstanz (DE)
- Durham University (GB)
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR)
- University of Vienna (AT)
- University of Tübingen (DE)
- University of South Bohemia in České Budějovice (CZ)
- LECA‐Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine CNRS Univ. Savoie Mont‐Blanc Univ. Grenoble Alpes Grenoble France
- University of Göttingen (DE)
- Czech Academy of Sciences (CZ)
- Charles University (CZ)
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (DE)
- KU Leuven (BE)
- Regionaal Landschap Kleine en Grote Nete Kasterlee Belgium
- Corresponding author
- Haeuser, Emily
- ORCID
- Haeuser, Emily
- Dawson, Wayne
- Thuiller, Wilfried
- Dullinger, Stefan
- Block, Svenja
- Bossdorf, Oliver
- Carboni, Marta
- Conti, Luisa
- Dullinger, Iwona
- Essl, Franz
- Klonner, Günther
- Moser, Dietmar
- Münkemüller, Tamara
- Parepa, Madalin
- Talluto, Matthew V.
- Kreft, Holger
- Pergl, Jan
- Pyšek, Petr
- Weigelt, Patrick
- Winter, Marten
- Hermy, Martin
- Roquet, Cristina
- van Kleunen, Mark
- Venue
- Journal of Applied Ecology
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2018-07-05
- Volume
- 55
- Issue
- 5
- Pages
- 2386-2395
- ISSN
- 0021-8901 (ISSN-L)
- 1365-2664
- OpenAlex
- W2807715769
- Cited by
- 75
- References
- 6
- Citations by year
- 2026: 8 · 2025: 6 · 2024: 11 · 2023: 12 · 2022: 8 · 2021: 14 · 2020: 9 · 2019: 6 · 2018: 1
- FWCI
- 5.88
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- nbn-resolving.de
- Locations
- Journal of Applied Ecology (publishedVersion)
- Durham Research Online (Durham University) (acceptedVersion)
- KOPS (University of Konstanz) (submittedVersion)
- HAL (submittedVersion)
- Durham Research Online (Durham University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Iris (Roma Tre University) (submittedVersion)
- Lirias (KU Leuven) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (KL 1866/6‐1)
- Agence Nationale de la Recherche
- Austrian Science Fund
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecological Modeling › Species Distribution and Climate Change
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Plant Science › Botany and Plant Ecology Studies
- Keywords
- ornamental plants, invasive species, naturalization (biology), climate change, propagule pressure, climate suitability, dioecy, plant height, horticultural introduction, European gardens, biological invasions
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