The Nonparametric Identification of Treatment Effects in Duration Models
Abstract
This paper analyzes the specification and identification of causal multivariate duration models. We focus on the case in which one duration concerns the point in time a treatment is initiated and we are interested in the effect of this treatment on some outcome duration. We define “no anticipation of treatment” and relate it to a common assumption in biostatistics. We show that (i) no anticipation and (ii) randomized treatment assignment can be imposed without restricting the observational data. We impose (i) but not (ii) and prove identification of models that impose some structure. We allow for dependent unobserved heterogeneity and we do not exploit exclusion restrictions on covariates. We provide results for both single-spell and multiple-spell data. The timing of events conveys useful information on the treatment effect.
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The no-anticipation assumption is important for identification of τ2 because otherwise changes in outcomes for the treated group between periods 1 and 2 could reflect anticipatory effects in period 1 as well as the causal effect in period 2.
“This is important for identification of τ 2 , since otherwise the changes in the outcome for the treated group between period 1 and 2 could reflect not just the causal effect in period t ' 2 but also the anticipatory effect in period t ' 1 (Abbring and van den Berg, 2003; Malani and Reif, 2015).”
From What's trending in difference-in-differences? A synthesis of the recent econometrics literature (2023) · cites this paper as Abbring and van den Berg, 2003
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“This assumption is plausible in many contexts but may be violated if individuals learn of treatment status beforehand and adjust their behavior in anticipation (Abbring and van den Berg 2003; Lechner 2010; Malani and Reif 2015).”
BackgroundEmployment effects of the provision of specific professional skills and techniques in Germany
Fitzenberger, B., & Speckesser, S. (2006) · Empirical Economics · doi:10.1007/s00181-006-0088-z · Cited by 96 · see citing works
To Be Financed or Not… - The Role of Patents for Venture Capital-FinancingPreprint
Häussler, C., Harhoff, D., & Mueller, E. (2009) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.1393725 · Cited by 96 · see citing works
CARROT AND STICK: HOW RE‐EMPLOYMENT BONUSES AND BENEFIT SANCTIONS AFFECT EXIT RATES FROM WELFARE
van der Klaauw, B., & OURS, J. C. V. (2011) · Journal of Applied Econometrics · doi:10.1002/jae.1265 · Cited by 92 · see citing works
The Effect of Sanctions on Exit from Unemployment: Evidence from Denmark
Svarer, M. (2010) · Economica · doi:10.1111/j.1468-0335.2010.00851.x · Cited by 91 · see citing works
Biewen, M., Fitzenberger, B., Osikominu, A., & Paul, M. (2007) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.999536 · Cited by 90 · see citing works
Education and health: The role of cognitive ability
Bijwaard, G. E., van Kippersluis, H., & Veenman, J. (2015) · Journal of Health Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jhealeco.2015.03.003 · Cited by 95 · see citing works
The Microeconometric Estimation of Treatment Effects — An Overview
Caliendo, M., & Hujer, R. (2007) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/3-540-32693-6_14 · Cited by 88 · see citing works
The Impact of Labor Market Dynamics on the Return Migration of Immigrants
Bijwaard, G. E., Schlüter, C., & Wahba, J. (2013) · The Review of Economics and Statistics · doi:10.1162/rest_a_00389 · Cited by 86 · see citing works
Bergemann, A., Fitzenberger, B., & Speckesser, S. (2009) · Journal of Applied Econometrics · doi:10.1002/jae.1054 · Cited by 80 · see citing works
Conjugal bereavement effects on health and mortality at advanced ages
van den Berg, G. J., Lindeboom, M., & Portrait, F. R. M. (2011) · Journal of Health Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jhealeco.2011.05.011 · Cited by 84 · see citing works
Are Short‐lived Jobs Stepping Stones to Long‐Lasting Jobs?*
Cockx, B. L. W., & Picchio, M. (2011) · Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics · doi:10.1111/j.1468-0084.2011.00668.x · Cited by 83 · see citing works
Fruehwirth, J. C., Navarro, S., & Takahashi, Y. (2016) · Journal of Labor Economics · doi:10.1086/686262 · Cited by 82 · see citing works
Time Series Experiments and Causal Estimands: Exact Randomization Tests and Trading
Bojinov, I., & Shephard, N. (2019) · Journal of the American Statistical Association · doi:10.1080/01621459.2018.1527225 · Cited by 116 · see citing works
“…t and for all w 1: t − 1 , Y 1: T ( • ) , The class of treatments which only depend upon past observables is at the heart of the “sequential randomization” assumption of Robins (e.g. Robins (1994), Robins et al. (1999), Abbring and van den Berg (2003) and Lok (2008)) in his longitudinal studies 1 .”
BackgroundTraining the Unemployed in France: How Does it Affect Unemployment Duration and Recurrence?
Crépon, B., Ferracci, M., & Fougère, D. (2012) · Annals of Economics and Statistics · doi:10.2307/23646576 · Cited by 82 · see citing works
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Fighting Youth Unemployment: The Effects of Active Labor Market PoliciesPreprint
Caliendo, M., Künn, S., & Schmidl, R. (2011) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.1977808 · Cited by 78 · see citing works
Strategic Choices in Polygamous Households: Theory and Evidence from Senegal
Rossi, P. (2018) · The Review of Economic Studies · doi:10.1093/restud/rdy052 · Cited by 77 · see citing works
Tatsiramos, K. (2009) · European Economic Review · doi:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2009.10.001 · Cited by 77 · see citing works
Return Migration of Foreign Students
Bijwaard, G. E., & Wang, Q. (2016) · European Journal of Population / Revue européenne de Démographie · doi:10.1007/s10680-015-9360-2 · Cited by 77 · see citing works
“…adopt a discrete distribution, i.e. v has discrete support ðv1; . . .; vKÞ, with vr ¼ ðvse;r; . . .; vm;rÞ and pr ¼ Prðv ¼ vrÞ.6 The ‘‘timing-of-events’’ method of Abbring and Berg (2003) implies that the full effects of labour market changes and marriage formation on the return migration hazard,…”
Heterogeneous Employment Effects of Job Search Programs
Knaus, M. C., Lechner, M., & Strittmatter, A. (2020) · The Journal of Human Resources · doi:10.3368/jhr.57.2.0718-9615r1 · Cited by 75 · see citing works
Active Labor Market Policy Effects in a Dynamic Setting
Crépon, B., Ferracci, M., Jolivet, G., & van den Berg, G. J. (2009) · Journal of the European Economic Association · doi:10.1162/jeea.2009.7.2-3.595 · Cited by 72 · see citing works
McVicar, D. (2008) · Labour Economics · doi:10.1016/j.labeco.2008.02.002 · Cited by 71 · see citing works
“treatment assignment (see Abbring and van den Berg (2003) for a contrasting example).”
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Working hours flexibility and older workers' labor supply
Gielen, A. C. (2008) · Oxford Economic Papers · doi:10.1093/oep/gpn035 · Cited by 71 · see citing works
The Road to Ruin? Sequences of Initiation to Drugs and Crime in Britain
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Richardson, K., & van den Berg, G. J. (2002) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.319060 · Cited by 70 · see citing works
State dependence in youth labor market experiences, and the evaluation of policy interventions
Doiron, D., & Gørgens, T. (2008) · Journal of Econometrics · doi:10.1016/j.jeconom.2008.05.010 · Cited by 69 · see citing works
Transitions into Permanent Employment in Spain: An Empirical Analysis for Young Workers
Pérez, J. I. G., & Muñoz‐Bullón, F. (2009) · British Journal of Industrial Relations · doi:10.1111/j.1467-8543.2009.00750.x · Cited by 69 · see citing works
Reducing income transfers to refugee immigrants: Does start-help help you start?
Rosholm, M., & Vejlin, R. (2009) · Labour Economics · doi:10.1016/j.labeco.2009.09.004 · Cited by 65 · see citing works
Fevang, E., Markussen, S., & Røed, K. (2014) · Journal of Labor Economics · doi:10.1086/673400 · Cited by 65 · see citing works
Osikominu, A. (2012) · The Review of Economic Studies · doi:10.1093/restud/rds022 · Cited by 65 · see citing works
- Authors
- Abbring, J. H., & van den Berg, G. J.
- Affiliations
- Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (NL)
- ORCID
- Abbring, Jaap H.
- Venue
- Econometrica
- Publisher
- The Econometric Society
- Published
- 2003-09
- Volume
- 71
- Issue
- 5
- Pages
- 1491-1517
- ISSN
- 0012-9682 (ISSN-L)
- 1468-0262
- OpenAlex
- W2069757101
- Cited by
- 616
- References
- 53
- Citations by year
- 2026: 9 · 2025: 19 · 2024: 18 · 2023: 27 · 2022: 24 · 2021: 18 · 2020: 23 · 2019: 17 · 2018: 23 · 2017: 33 · 2016: 30 · 2015: 25 · 2014: 24 · 2013: 36 · 2012: 31
- FWCI
- 20.88
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Econometrica (publishedVersion)
- Bristol Research (University of Bristol) (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- VU Research Portal (submittedVersion)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Advanced Causal Inference Techniques
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods and Inference
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Spatial and Panel Data Analysis
- Keywords
- treatment effects, duration models, nonparametric identification, causal inference, unobserved heterogeneity, event timing, treatment initiation
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