Who Can Tolerate a Marginal Kidney? Predicting Survival after Deceased Donor Kidney Transplant by Donor-Recipient Combination
Open accessAbstract
The impact of donor quality on post-kidney transplant (KT) survival may vary by candidate condition. Characterizing this variation would increase access to KT without sacrificing outcomes. We developed a tool to estimate post-KT survival for combinations of donor quality and candidate condition. We studied deceased donor KT recipients (n = 120 818) and waitlisted candidates (n = 376 272) between 2005 and 2016 by using the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients. Donor quality and candidate condition were measured by using the Kidney Donor Profile Index (KDPI) and the Estimated Post Transplant Survival (EPTS) score. We estimated 5-year post-KT survival based on combinations of KDPI and EPTS score using random forest algorithms and waitlist survival by EPTS score using Weibull regressions. Survival benefit was defined as absolute reduction in mortality risk with KT. For candidates with an EPTS score of 80, 5-year waitlist survival was 47.6%, and 5-year post-KT survival was 78.9% after receiving kidneys with a KDPI of 20 and was 70.7% after receiving kidneys with a KDPI of 80. The impact of KDPI on survival benefit varied greatly by EPTS score. For candidates with low EPTS scores (eg, <40), the KDPI had limited impact on survival benefit. For candidates with middle or high EPTS scores (eg, >40), survival benefit decreased with higher KDPI but was still substantial even with a KDPI of 100 (>16 percentage points). Our prediction tool (www.transplantmodels.com/kdpi-epts) can support individualized decision-making on kidney offers in clinical practice.
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Bae et al. proposed an online tool to maximize benefits from marginal kidney donors.
“In 2019, Bae et al. proposed an online tool (https://www.transplantmodels.com/kdpi-epts/) (17) to maximize benefits form marginal kidney donors.”
From Artificial Intelligence: Present and Future Potential for Solid Organ Transplantation (2022) · cites this paper as [17]
The Bae et al. evaluation yielded a C-statistic of 0.637 for the RSF algorithm, which is slightly higher than the KDRI model's 0.6.
“The result of the evaluation yielded a C-statistic of 0.637 for the RSF algorithm, which is slightly higher than the Kidney Donor Risk Index (KDRI) model’s 0.6.”
From Artificial Intelligence: Present and Future Potential for Solid Organ Transplantation (2022) · cites this paper as [17]
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- [7]Merion RM Deceased-Donor Characteristics and the Survival Benefit of Kidney Transplantation JAMA 2005 294 21 2726 16333008
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Artificial Intelligence: Present and Future Potential for Solid Organ Transplantation
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- Authors
- Bae, S., Massie, A. B., Thomas, A. G., Bahn, G., Luo, X., Jackson, K. R., Ottmann, S. E., Brennan, D. C., Desai, N. M., Coresh, J., Segev, D. L., & Garonzik Wang, J. M.
- Affiliations
- Johns Hopkins University (US)
- ORCID
- Venue
- American Journal of Transplantation
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2019-02
- Volume
- 19
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 425-433
- ISSN
- 1600-6135 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC6309666
- OpenAlex
- W2809786479
- Cited by
- 138
- References
- 28
- Citations by year
- 2026: 21 · 2025: 25 · 2024: 23 · 2023: 14 · 2022: 18 · 2021: 12 · 2020: 14 · 2019: 9 · 2018: 2
- FWCI
- 7.91
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- American Journal of Transplantation (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases (K24DK101828)
- Mogam Science Scholarship Foundation
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Transplantation › Renal Transplantation Outcomes and Treatments
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Organ Donation and Transplantation
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Surgery › Organ Transplantation Techniques and Outcomes
- Keywords
- deceased donor kidney transplantation, donor quality, Kidney Donor Profile Index, waitlist survival, marginal donor kidneys, transplant candidate selection, survival benefit
- MeSH terms
- Adult, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Humans, Kidney Failure, Chronic, Male, Middle Aged, Tissue and Organ Procurement, Prognosis, Registries, Tissue Donors, Waiting Lists, Survival Rate, Kidney Transplantation, Donor Selection, Transplant Recipients
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