BLACK LIVES MATTER PROTESTS, FATAL POLICE INTERACTIONS, AND CRIME

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

BLM protests are more likely to happen in locations where there has recently been a fatal interaction with police.

“Recent research has found that BLM protests are more likely to happen in locations where there has recently been a fatal interaction with police (Williamson, Trump, and Einstein 2018)”

• cites Williamson, Trump, and Einstein 2018 sourceSupported

May combine two claims.

An additional protest in the preceding month may have a small positive impact on the number of non-Black fatal encounters with police, although these results are less robust to alternate specifications and sample.

“The first two columns indicate that an additional protest in the preceding month may have a small positive impact on the number of non-Black fatal encounters with police, although these results are less robust to the alternate specifications and sample shown in columns 3 and 4.”

May combine two claims.

The BLM movement did not lead to increased crime or arrests.

“In addition, I find no evidence supporting increased crime or arrests as a result of the BLM movement.”

• Also stated in: § I. INTRODUCTION · hedged

  “In addition, there does not seem to be any measurable impact of BLM protests on a variety of crime measures or the number of arrests within states.”

May combine two claims.

BLM protests had no measurable impact on property crime, violent crime, officer assaults, or officer attacks.

“There does not appear to be any evidence that increased BLM protest activity had an impact on property crime, violent crime, officer assaults, or officer attacks.”

May combine two claims.

In Table 6, the point estimates for the first lagged protest indicator are consistently negative and of roughly the same magnitude across all cutoff values for the protest indicator, although they are statistically insignificant due to large standard errors.

“Although statistically insignificant due to large standard errors, the point estimates for the first lagged protest indicator are consistently negative and of roughly the same magnitude across all cutoff values for the protest indicator.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

Standard errors are clustered at the state level.

“This specification is estimated with standard errors clustered at the state level.”

May combine two claims.

The risk of missing data on fatal encounters is highest for earlier years, while fatalities have been better tracked in the more recent years used for analysis.

“Although there is a risk of missing data on fatal encounters, this risk is highest for the earlier years in the dataset, whereas the fatalities have been better tracked in the more recent years that are used for analysis in this paper.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

The Elephrame data constitute the most comprehensive list of BLM protests.

“Protest data were collected from Elephrame (Elephrame 2019), an online resource containing, to the best of my knowledge, the most comprehensive list of BLM protests.”

• cites Elephrame 2019Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

In the 1960s riots, Blacks' income and employment were negatively affected as were property values.

“In the case of the 1960s riots, Blacks' income and employment were negatively affected as were property values (Collins andMargo 2004, 2007).”

• cites Collins and Margo 2004, 2007Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

The Washington Post data were used to cross-check the Fatal Encounters database for the years in which it was available.

“The Washington Post data (Tate et al. 2018) have been used to cross-check the Fatal Encounters database for the years in which it was available.”

• cites Tate et al. 2018Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

This paper is the first to examine the countrywide impacts of increased police scrutiny caused by BLM protests.

“In contrast, this paper is the first to examine the countrywide impacts of increased police scrutiny caused by BLM protests.”

May combine two claims.

The true impact of the BLM movement on fatal interactions with police may be larger in magnitude than the results presented in Table 1, Panel A, because higher police violence against Blacks causing more protests would positively bias estimates away from a negative lagged effect.

“Therefore, the true impact of the BLM movement on fatal interactions with police may be larger in magnitude than the results presented in Table 1, Panel A.”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: Areas of the country that witnessed more police violence against Blacks were more likely to have more BLM protests.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

Whites became moderately less racially resentful towards Blacks as a result of BLM protests, although results were heterogeneous with respect to age.

“Specifically, Whites became moderately less racially resentful towards Blacks as a result of BLM protests, although these results were heterogeneous with respect to age (Mazumder 2019).”

• cites Mazumder 2019 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

The BLM protests decreased racial resentment towards Blacks.

“and that the BLM protests decreased racial resentment towards Blacks (Mazumder 2019).”

• cites Mazumder 2019 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

No paper has used the BLM protests to examine the Ferguson Effect.

“To the best of author's knowledge, no paper has used the BLM protests to examine the Ferguson Effect.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

The specification includes region-by-month fixed effects to control for seasonal effects by census region.

“The specification also includes region-by-month fixed effects (𝜌 rm ), to control for seasonal effects by census region; state-by-year time trends (t * 𝜎 s ); and year fixed effects (𝜏 t ).”

May combine two claims.

Limiting the sample to the 20 states with the most protests yields a point estimate that decreases slightly but remains negative and significant.

“Although the point estimate for the previous month's protests decreases slightly, it does still remain negative and significant.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Nonviolent political protest movements can spur citizens to vote.

“Additionally, it has also been shown that nonviolent political protests movements can spur citizens to vote (Madestam et al. 2013;Wasow 2017).”

• cites Madestam et al. 2013 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source
• cites Wasow 2017Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

External regulation of police forces increased crime rates in the short run.

“Examining a recent federally mandated reform, 2 the authors find that external regulation of police forces increased crime rates in the short run.”

• cites Rushin and Edwards (2017)Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims.

There is evidence of a decrease in police stops in towns and cities across Missouri, but no evidence of increased total, violent, or property crime rates in Missouri or large cities across the country.

“There is evidence of a decrease in police stops in towns and cities across Missouri (Shjarback et al. 2017), but there is no evidence of increased total, violent, or property crime rates in Missouri or large cities across the country (Pyrooz et al. 2016;Shjarback et al. 2017).”

• cites Shjarback et al. 2017 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source
• cites Pyrooz et al. 2016 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims. The quote only partly states this claim.

The dataset compiled for this study is the largest and most complete dataset on this subject.

“To the best of author's knowledge, this is the largest and most complete dataset that has been compiled on this subject.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

The Ferguson Effect theorizes that increased scrutiny on law enforcement officer behavior has led to a decrease in proactive policing.

“The Ferguson Effect theorizes that increased scrutiny on law enforcement officer behavior has led to a decrease in proactive policing.”