Exenatide use and incidence of pancreatic and thyroid cancer: A retrospective cohort study
Abstract
A retrospective cohort study, supplemented with a nested case-control study, was performed using two administrative databases from commercial health plans in the United States to compare the incidence of pancreatic and thyroid cancer among users of exenatide versus other antidiabetic drugs (OADs). Patients with type 2 diabetes who initiated exenatide or OADs between 1 June 2005 and 30 June 2015 were included. Pancreatic and thyroid cancers were identified using chart-validated algorithms in the cohort study. Cases in the nested case-control study were chart-confirmed pancreatic or thyroid cancers, and controls were sampled using risk-set sampling. The time-fixed analyses comparing 33 629 exenatide initiators with 49 317 propensity-score-matched OAD initiators yielded hazard ratios of 0.76 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.47-1.21) for pancreatic cancer and 1.46 (95% CI 0.98-2.19) for thyroid cancer. Results in the time-dependent analyses by cumulative duration or dose were similar. Nested case-control analyses yielded rate ratios of 0.61 (95%CI, 0.37-1.00) for pancreatic cancer and 0.89 (95% CI, 0.64-1.24) for thyroid cancer. This observational study suggested exenatide use was not associated with an increased risk of pancreatic or thyroid cancer.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
In a cohort study of patients with type 2 diabetes starting exenatide or other agents between 2005 and 2015, exenatide use was associated with a hazard ratio for thyroid cancer of 1.46 (95% CI 0.98-2.19).
“The cohort study included 33,629 patients who started exenatide and 49,319 propensity score–matched initiators of other agents with a median follow-up time of 0.9 years, and identified 57 cases of thyroid cancer in the exenatide group and 43 cases in the comparator group. The hazard ratio (HR) for thyroid cancer was 1.46 [CI 0.98–2.19].”
From Glucagon-Like Peptide-1 Receptor Agonists and Thyroid Cancer: A Narrative Review (2024) · cites this paper as [53]
The potential for residual confounding and the role of surveillance bias are important considerations that have not been thoroughly assessed.
“Similarly, the potential for residual confounding (e.g., limited evaluation of specific risk factors for thyroid cancer such as obesity, neck radiation, and family history of thyroid cancer) and the role of surveillance bias (e.g., clinicians might be more likely to do a thyroid exam or ultrasound on patients taking GLP-1 RA) are important considerations that have been not thoroughly assessed.25,”
From Glucagon-Like Peptide-1 Receptor Agonists and Thyroid Cancer: A Narrative Review (2024) · cites this paper as [53]
Liang et al. developed and validated algorithms based on diagnosis and procedure codes for outcome assessment, with a positive predictive value of 88% for thyroid cancer without distinction between non-MTC and MTC.
“For outcome assessment, authors developed and validated algorithms based on diagnosis and procedures codes, with a positive predictive value of 88% for thyroid cancer without distinction between non-MTC and MTC.53”
From Glucagon-Like Peptide-1 Receptor Agonists and Thyroid Cancer: A Narrative Review (2024) · cites this paper as [53]
Five observational studies included analyses considering different lag times for outcome assessment, while two studies provided distinct information differentiating between thyroid cancer in general and MTC.
“In addition, five studies included analyses considering different lag times for outcome assessment, while two studies provided distinct information differentiating between thyroid cancer in general and MTC.25,38,51–53”
From Glucagon-Like Peptide-1 Receptor Agonists and Thyroid Cancer: A Narrative Review (2024) · cites this paper as [53]
In a nested case-control study, exenatide use was not associated with an increased risk for thyroid cancer (adjusted odds ratio = 0.89, 95% CI 0.64-1.24).
“In the nested case–control study exenatide use was not associated with an increased for thyroid cancer (adjusted odds ratio [OR] = 0.89 [CI 0.64–1.24]).53”
From Glucagon-Like Peptide-1 Receptor Agonists and Thyroid Cancer: A Narrative Review (2024) · cites this paper as [53]
Two observational studies and a study based on two U.S. administrative databases did not highlight a significant increased risk of thyroid cancer with exenatide.
“Furthermore, two observational studies, as well as a study based on two U.S. administrative databases did not highlight a significant increased risk of thyroid cancer with exenatide [130,131].”
From Adipose Tissue: A Novel Target of the Incretin Axis? A Paradigm Shift in Obesity-Linked Insulin Resistance (2024) · cites this paper as [131]
Cites
Pancreatitis, pancreatic, and thyroid cancer with glucagon-like peptide-1-based therapies
Elashoff, M., Matveyenko, A. V., Gier, B., Elashoff, R., & Butler, P. C. (2011) · Gastroenterology · doi:10.1053/j.gastro.2011.02.018 · Cited by 944 · see citing works
Schneeweiß, S. (2006) · Pharmacoepidemiology and Drug Safety · doi:10.1002/pds.1200 · Cited by 731 · see citing works
Pancreatic safety of incretin-based drugs–FDA and EMA assessment
Egan, A. G., Blind, E., Dunder, K., de Graeff, P. A., Hummer, B. T., Bourcier, T., & Rosebraugh, C. (2014) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmp1314078 · Cited by 498 · see citing works
Stürmer, T., Rothman, K. J., Avorn, J., & Glynn, R. J. (2010) · American Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1093/aje/kwq198 · Cited by 449 · see citing works
Pancreatic Safety of Incretin-Based Drugs — FDA and EMA Assessment
(2014) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmx140026 · Cited by 372 · see citing works
Austin, P. C. (2008) · Pharmacoepidemiology and Drug Safety · doi:10.1002/pds.1674 · Cited by 188 · see citing works
Alves, C., Batel-Marques, F., & Macedo, A. F. (2012) · Diabetes Research and Clinical Practice · doi:10.1016/j.diabres.2012.09.008 · Cited by 186 · see citing works
Incretin based drugs and the risk of pancreatic cancer: international multicentre cohort study
Azoulay, L., Filion, K. B., Platt, R. W., Dahl, M., Dormuth, C. R., Clemens, K. K., Durand, M., Juurlink, D. N., Targownik, L. E., Turin, T. C., et al. (2016) · BMJ · doi:10.1136/bmj.i581 · Cited by 120 · see citing works
Romley, J. A., Goldman, D. P., Solomon, M. D., McFadden, D. L., & Peters, A. L. (2012) · Diabetes Technology & Therapeutics · doi:10.1089/dia.2012.0075 · Cited by 85 · see citing works
Funch, D. P., Gydesen, H., Tornøe, K., Major‐Pedersen, A., & Chan, K. A. (2013) · Diabetes Obesity and Metabolism · doi:10.1111/dom.12230 · Cited by 81 · see citing works
Dipeptidyl‐peptidase‐4 inhibitors and pancreatic cancer: a cohort study
Gokhale, M., Buse, J. B., Gray, C. L., Pate, V., Marquis, M. A., & Stürmer, T. (2014) · Diabetes Obesity and Metabolism · doi:10.1111/dom.12379 · Cited by 71 · see citing works
Boniol, M., Franchi, M., Bota, M., Leclercq, A., Guillaume, J., Damme, N. V., Corrao, G., Autier, P., & Boyle, P. (2017) · Diabetes Care · doi:10.2337/dc17-0280 · Cited by 56 · see citing works
Sitagliptin and pancreatic cancer risk in patients with type 2 diabetes
Tseng, C. (2015) · European Journal of Clinical Investigation · doi:10.1111/eci.12570 · Cited by 39 · see citing works
Dore, D. D., Seeger, J. D., & Chan, K. A. (2012) · Therapeutic Advances in Drug Safety · doi:10.1177/2042098612446473 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
Self-citationChen, H., Zhou, X., Chen, T., Liu, B., Jin, W., Gu, H., Hong, T., & Zhang, G. (2016) · Diabetes Therapy · doi:10.1007/s13300-016-0198-3 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
Implications of immortal person-time when outcomes are nonfatal
Liang, C., Seeger, J. D., & Dore, D. D. (2016) · Annals of Epidemiology · doi:10.1016/j.annepidem.2015.12.004 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Self-citation
Flagged first, then by citations
Cited by
Sorted by citations
GLP-1 Receptor Agonists and the Risk of Thyroid Cancer
Bezin, J., Gouverneur, A., Pénichon, M., Mathieu, C., Garrel, R., Hillaire-Buys, D., Pariente, A., & Faillie, J.-L. (2023) · Diabetes Care · doi:10.2337/dc22-1148 · Cited by 320 · see citing works
Glucagon‐like peptide 1 receptor agonist use and risk of thyroid cancer: Scandinavian cohort study
Pasternak, B., Wintzell, V., Hviid, A., Eliasson, B., Gudbjörnsdottir, S., Jonasson, C., Hveem, K., Svanström, H., Melbye, M., & Ueda, P. (2024) · BMJ · doi:10.1136/bmj-2023-078225 · Cited by 125 · see citing works
Baxter, S. M., Lund, L. C., Andersen, J. H., Brix, T. H., Hegedüs, L., Hsieh, M. H.-C., Su, C. T.-T., Cheng, M. C.-Y., Chang, Z. C.-J., Lai, E. C.-C., et al. (2025) · Thyroid® · doi:10.1089/thy.2024.0387 · Cited by 81 · see citing works
Putting GLP-1 RAs and Thyroid Cancer in Context: Additional Evidence and Remaining Doubts
Thompson, C. A., & Stürmer, T. (2023) · Diabetes Care · doi:10.2337/dci22-0052 · Cited by 51 · see citing works
Mali, G., Ahuja, V., & Dubey, K. (2021) · Journal of Clinical Pharmacy and Therapeutics · doi:10.1111/jcpt.13259 · Cited by 44 · see citing works
Glucagon-Like Peptide-1 Receptor Agonists and Thyroid Cancer: A Narrative Review
Espinosa De Ycaza, A. E., Brito, J. P., McCoy, R. G., Shao, H., & Singh Ospina, N. (2024) · Thyroid · doi:10.1089/thy.2023.0530 · Cited by 37 · see citing works
Approach to the patient with thyroid nodules: considering GLP-1 receptor agonists
Kelly, C. A., & Sipos, J. A. (2025) · The Journal of Clinical Endocrinology & Metabolism · doi:10.1210/clinem/dgae722 · Cited by 30 · see citing works
De Fano, M., Malara, M., Vermigli, C., & Murdolo, G. (2024) · International Journal of Molecular Sciences · doi:10.3390/ijms25168650 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
- Authors
- Liang, C., Bertoia, M. L., Ding, Y., Clifford, C. R., Qiao, Q., Gagne, J. J., & Dore, D. D.
- Affiliations
- Optum Epidemiology Boston Massachusetts
- AstraZeneca (Sweden) (SE)
- Brigham and Women's Hospital (US)
- Brown University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Liang, Caihua
- Venue
- Diabetes, Obesity and Metabolism
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2018-12-25
- Volume
- 21
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 1037-1042
- ISSN
- 1462-8902 (ISSN-L)
- 1463-1326
- OpenAlex
- W2903241885
- Cited by
- 35
- References
- 16
- Citations by year
- 2026: 5 · 2025: 10 · 2024: 6 · 2023: 3 · 2022: 4 · 2021: 1 · 2020: 3 · 2019: 3
- FWCI
- 1.39
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Update notices
- correction (2020-04-01)
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Diabetes Obesity and Metabolism (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- AstraZeneca
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes Treatment and Management
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Oncology › Pancreatic and Hepatic Oncology Research
- Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Molecular Biology › Metabolism, Diabetes, and Cancer
- Keywords
- exenatide, pancreatic cancer, thyroid cancer, cancer incidence, type 2 diabetes, antidiabetic drugs, drug safety, GLP-1 receptor agonists, cancer risk
- MeSH terms
- Exenatide, Adult, Aged, Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2, Female, Humans, Hypoglycemic Agents, Male, Middle Aged, Pancreatic Neoplasms, Retrospective Studies, Thyroid Neoplasms, United States, Cohort Studies, Incidence, Proportional Hazards Models, Databases, Factual, Incretins, Propensity Score
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review