Non-parametric modeling reveals environmental effects on bluefin tuna recruitment in Atlantic, Pacific, and Southern Oceans
Open accessAbstract
Environment–recruitment relationships can be difficult to delineate with parametric statistical models and can be prone to misidentification. We use non‐parametric time‐series modeling which makes no assumptions about functional relationships between variables, to reveal environmental influences on early life stages of bluefin tuna and demonstrate improvement in prediction of subsequent recruitment. The influence of sea surface temperature, which has been previously associated with larval growth and survival, was consistently detected in recruitment time series of bluefin tuna stocks that spawn in the Mediterranean Sea, the North Pacific, and the Southern Ocean. Short time series for the Gulf of Mexico stock may have precluded a clear determination of environmental influences on recruitment fluctuations. Because the non‐parametric approach does not require specification of equations to represent system dynamics, predictive models can likely be developed that appropriately reflect the complexity of the ecological system under investigation. This flexibility can potentially overcome methodological challenges of specifying structural relationships between environmental conditions and fish recruitment. Consequently, there is potential for non‐parametric time series modeling to supplement traditional stock recruitment models for fisheries management.
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The increasing trend in annual recruitment of eastern Atlantic bluefin tuna from the 1970s to the early 2000s has been related to increasing summer temperatures in the Balearic Sea.
“the increasing trend in annual recruitment from the 1970s to the early 2000s has been related to increasing summer temperatures in the Balearic Sea (Harford et al., 2017)”
From Pelagic habitat and offspring survival in the eastern stock of Atlantic bluefin tuna (2019) · cites this paper as Harford et al., 2017
The 'Detecting environmental effects on recruitment' section links July sea-surface temperature near Mediterranean spawning areas to eastern Atlantic bluefin tuna recruitment. But the paper does not establish that recruitment rose from the 1970s to the early 2000s because summer temperatures increased in the Balearic Sea. Its scenario analysis instead reports a state-dependent relationship, negative in 63% of Mediterranean predictions and positive in 37%. (LLM, conf=0.86)
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Pelagic habitat and offspring survival in the eastern stock of Atlantic bluefin tuna
Reglero, P., Balbín, R., Abascal, F. J., Medina, A., Alvarez-Berastegui, D., Rasmuson, L., Mourre, B., Saber, S., Ortega, A., Blanco, E., et al. (2019) · ICES Journal of Marine Science · doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsy135 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
- Authors
- Harford, W. J., Karnauskas, M., Walter, J. F., & Liu, H.
- Affiliations
- University of Miami (US)
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US)
- Texas A&M University at Galveston (US)
- Corresponding author
- Harford, William J.
- Venue
- Fisheries Oceanography
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2017-01-06
- Volume
- 26
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 396-412
- ISSN
- 1054-6006 (ISSN-L)
- 1365-2419
- OpenAlex
- W2569295050
- Cited by
- 23
- References
- 11
- Citations by year
- 2024: 1 · 2023: 5 · 2022: 1 · 2020: 5 · 2019: 3 · 2018: 7 · 2017: 1
- FWCI
- 3.03
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Fisheries Oceanography (publishedVersion)
- NOAA Institutional Repository (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- NOAA Fisheries Stock Assessment Methods Program
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Marine and fisheries research
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Fish Ecology and Management Studies
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
- Keywords
- bluefin tuna, Thunnus thynnus, recruitment (biology), sea surface temperature, early life stages, larval growth and survival, Mediterranean Sea, North Pacific, Southern Ocean, Gulf of Mexico, stock-recruitment models, fisheries management
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