Global soil nitrous oxide emissions since the preindustrial era estimated by an ensemble of terrestrial biosphere models: Magnitude, attribution, and uncertainty
Open accessAbstract
Our understanding and quantification of global soil nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions and the underlying processes remain largely uncertain. Here, we assessed the effects of multiple anthropogenic and natural factors, including nitrogen fertilizer (N) application, atmospheric N deposition, manure N application, land cover change, climate change, and rising atmospheric CO 2 concentration, on global soil N 2 O emissions for the period 1861–2016 using a standard simulation protocol with seven process‐based terrestrial biosphere models. Results suggest global soil N 2 O emissions have increased from 6.3 ± 1.1 Tg N 2 O‐N/year in the preindustrial period (the 1860s) to 10.0 ± 2.0 Tg N 2 O‐N/year in the recent decade (2007–2016). Cropland soil emissions increased from 0.3 Tg N 2 O‐N/year to 3.3 Tg N 2 O‐N/year over the same period, accounting for 82% of the total increase. Regionally, China, South Asia, and Southeast Asia underwent rapid increases in cropland N 2 O emissions since the 1970s. However, US cropland N 2 O emissions had been relatively flat in magnitude since the 1980s, and EU cropland N 2 O emissions appear to have decreased by 14%. Soil N 2 O emissions from predominantly natural ecosystems accounted for 67% of the global soil emissions in the recent decade but showed only a relatively small increase of 0.7 ± 0.5 Tg N 2 O‐N/year (11%) since the 1860s. In the recent decade, N fertilizer application, N deposition, manure N application, and climate change contributed 54%, 26%, 15%, and 24%, respectively, to the total increase. Rising atmospheric CO 2 concentration reduced soil N 2 O emissions by 10% through the enhanced plant N uptake, while land cover change played a minor role. Our estimation here does not account for indirect emissions from soils and the directed emissions from excreta of grazing livestock. To address uncertainties in estimating regional and global soil N 2 O emissions, this study recommends several critical strategies for improving the process‐based simulations.
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N2O emissions are generally associated with increased use of (mostly mineral) fertilizer, which on an expanding area of cropland has been estimated to have contributed >80% of the N2O emission increase since the 1860s.
“N 2 O emissions are generally associated with increased use of (mostly mineral) fertilizer, which (on an expanding area of cropland) has been estimated to have contributed >80% of the N 2 O emission increase since the 1860s (43).”
From Restoring Degraded Lands (2021) · cites this paper as [43]
The Results passage on cropland emissions (page unavailable) estimates that increased cropland soil N₂O emissions accounted for 82% of the global soil-emission increase from the 1860s to the recent decade. The ‘Contributions of factors responsible for the increased N₂O emissions’ section also identifies fertilizer addition as a contributor. But the 82% figure is for cropland emissions, not the share caused by mostly mineral fertilizer on expanding cropland; the paper assesses manure, deposition, climate and other factors separately. (LLM, conf=0.88)
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A comprehensive quantification of global nitrous oxide sources and sinks
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“N2O emissions are generally associated with increased use of (mostly mineral) fertilizer, which (on an expanding area of cropland) has been estimated to have contributed>80%of theN2O emission increase since the 1860s (43).”
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- Authors
- Tian, H., Yang, J., Xu, R., Lu, C., Canadell, J. G., Davidson, E. A., Jackson, R. B., Arneth, A., Chang, J., Ciais, P., Gerber, S., Ito, A., Joos, F., Lienert, S., Messina, P., Olin, S., Pan, S., Peng, C., Saikawa, E., Thompson, R. L., Vuichard, N., Winiwarter, W., Zaehle, S., & Zhang, B.
- Affiliations
- Chinese Academy of Sciences (CN)
- Auburn University (US)
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Organismal Biology Iowa State University Ames Iowa
- CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere (AU)
- University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science (US)
- Stanford University (US)
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (DE)
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (FR)
- University of Florida (US)
- National Institute for Environmental Studies (JP)
- University of Bern (CH)
- Lund University (SE)
- Université du Québec à Montréal (CA)
- Department of Environmental Sciences Emory University Atlanta Georgia
- NILU (NO)
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (AT)
- Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (DE)
- Corresponding author
- Tian, Hanqin
- ORCID
- Tian, Hanqin
- Yang, Jia
- Xu, Rongting
- Lu, Chaoqun
- Canadell, Josep G.
- Davidson, Eric A.
- Jackson, Robert B.
- Arneth, Almut
- Chang, Jinfeng
- Ciais, Philippe
- Gerber, Stefan
- Ito, Akihiko
- Joos, Fortunat
- Lienert, Sebastian
- Messina, Palmira
- Olin, Stefan
- Pan, Shufen
- Peng, Changhui
- Saikawa, Eri
- Thompson, Rona L.
- Vuichard, Nicolas
- Winiwarter, Wilfried
- Zaehle, Sönke
- Zhang, Bowen
- Venue
- Global Change Biology
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2018-12-17
- Volume
- 25
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 640-659
- ISSN
- 1354-1013 (ISSN-L)
- 1365-2486
- OpenAlex
- W2899892480
- Cited by
- 384
- References
- 1
- Citations by year
- 2026: 29 · 2025: 56 · 2024: 77 · 2023: 45 · 2022: 64 · 2021: 53 · 2020: 37 · 2019: 21 · 2016: 2
- FWCI
- 25.96
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Global Change Biology (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- IIASA PURE (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis) (submittedVersion)
- Iowa State University Digital Repository (Iowa State University) (submittedVersion)
- HAL (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- BORIS (University Library Bern) (submittedVersion)
- Lund University Publications (Lund University) (submittedVersion)
- MPG.PuRe (Max Planck Society) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (1210360, 1243232)
- Lunds Universitet
- Austrian Science Fund (P29130‐G27)
- Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (17H01867)
- Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung (200020_172476)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Soil Science › Soil Carbon and Nitrogen Dynamics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Environmental Chemistry › Soil and Water Nutrient Dynamics
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Soil Science › Soil erosion and sediment transport
- Keywords
- soil nitrous oxide emissions, cropland emissions, nitrogen fertilization, atmospheric nitrogen deposition, land cover change, atmospheric CO2 increase, plant nitrogen uptake, terrestrial biosphere models, emission attribution, greenhouse gas emissions
- MeSH terms
- Industrial Development, Greenhouse Gases, Air Pollutants, Models, Theoretical, Nitrous Oxide, Soil, Time Factors, Uncertainty, Climate Change
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