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Cited by 129Rangeland Management and Livestock EcologyLand Use and Ecosystem ServicesPasture and Agricultural Systems

Global trends in grassland carrying capacity and relative stocking density of livestock

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Piipponen, Johannes, Jalava, Mika, de Leeuw, Jan, Rizayeva, Afag, Godde, Cecile, Cramer, Gabriel, Herrero, Mario, Kummu, Matti·2022·Global Change Biology
DOI 10.1111/gcb.16174PMC PMC9321565

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Abstract

Although the role of livestock in future food systems is debated, animal proteins are unlikely to completely disappear from our diet. Grasslands are a key source of primary productivity for livestock, and feed‐food competition is often limited on such land. Previous research on the potential for sustainable grazing has focused on restricted geographical areas or does not consider inter‐annual changes in grazing opportunities. Here, we developed a robust method to estimate trends and interannual variability (IV) in global livestock carrying capacity (number of grazing animals a piece of land can support) over 2001–2015, as well as relative stocking density (the reported livestock distribution relative to the estimated carrying capacity [CC]) in 2010. We first estimated the aboveground biomass that is available for grazers on global grasslands based on the MODIS Net Primary Production product. This was then used to calculate livestock carrying capacities using slopes, forest cover, and animal forage requirements as restrictions. We found that globally, CC decreased on 27% of total grasslands area, mostly in Europe and southeastern Brazil, while it increased on 15% of grasslands, particularly in Sudano‐Sahel and some parts of South America. In 2010, livestock forage requirements exceeded forage availability in northwestern Europe, and southern and eastern Asia. Although our findings imply some opportunities to increase grazing pressures in cold regions, Central Africa, and Australia, the high IV or low biomass supply might prevent considerable increases in stocking densities. The approach and derived open access data sets can feed into global food system modelling, support conservation efforts to reduce land degradation associated with overgrazing, and help identify undergrazed areas for targeted sustainable intensification efforts or rewilding purposes.

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  • Soil C-sequestration potential in grasslands can only possibly cancel out a continuous flow of enteric CH4 emissions in rather extensive systems, mostly with a cattle density lower than one head per hectare.

    “The low values of cattle numbers in Fig. 3 indicate that soil C-sequestration potential in grasslands can only possibly cancel out a continuous flow of enteric CH4 emissions in rather extensive systems (mostly with a cattle density lower than one head per hectare), whereas the density in practice is generally much higher than that32,33.”

    From Risk to rely on soil carbon sequestration to offset global ruminant emissions (2023) · cites this paper as [33]

    The Results and Interpretation section reports livestock densities relative to grassland carrying capacity and says that many grazing lands are near or above their estimated capacity. It does not establish that cattle density is generally above one head per hectare. The paper also does not assess whether grassland soil carbon sequestration can offset continuing enteric methane emissions; that is the citing authors’ inference, not a finding of this source. (LLM, conf=0.78)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

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Authors
Piipponen, J., Jalava, M., de Leeuw, J., Rizayeva, A., Godde, C., Cramer, G., Herrero, M., & Kummu, M.
Affiliations
  • Aalto University (FI)
  • Department of Bioecology Baku State University Baku Azerbaijan
  • University of Wisconsin–Madison (US)
  • Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Agriculture and Food St Lucia QLD Australia
  • Cornell University (US)
Corresponding author
  • Piipponen, Johannes
  • Kummu, Matti
ORCID
Venue
Global Change Biology
Publisher
Wiley
Published
2022-04-06
Volume
28
Issue
12
Pages
3902-3919
ISSN
  • 1354-1013 (ISSN-L)
  • 1365-2486
DOI
10.1111/gcb.16174
PMC
PMC9321565
OpenAlex
W4221053777
Cited by
129
References
3
Citations by year
2026: 33 · 2025: 32 · 2024: 40 · 2023: 19 · 2022: 4 · 2021: 1
FWCI
21.18
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Global Change Biology (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • Aaltodoc (Aalto University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • UKnowledge (University of Kentucky) (submittedVersion)
Funders
  • Academy of Finland (317320, 339834)
  • Maa- ja Vesitekniikan Tuki Ry
  • Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (INV023682)
  • H2020 European Research Council (819202)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law › Rangeland Management and Livestock Ecology
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Land Use and Ecosystem Services
  • Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Forestry › Pasture and Agricultural Systems
Keywords
grassland carrying capacity, livestock density, grazing intensity, net primary productivity, aboveground biomass, forage availability, interannual variability, sustainable grazing, overgrazing, land degradation, rewilding, sustainable intensification, animal protein intake
MeSH terms
Animals, Brazil, Conservation of Natural Resources, Biomass, Livestock, Grassland

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

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