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NATURAL SELECTION AND QUANTITATIVE GENETICS OF LIFE-HISTORY TRAITS IN WESTERN WOMEN: A TWIN STUDY
Abstract
Whether contemporary human populations are still evolving as a result of natural selection has been hotly debated. For natural selection to cause evolutionary change in a trait, variation in the trait must be correlated with fitness and be genetically heritable and there must be no genetic constraints to evolution. These conditions have rarely been tested in human populations. In this study, data from a large twin cohort were used to assess whether selection will cause a change among women in a contemporary Western population for three life-history traits: age at menarche, age at first reproduction, and age at menopause. We control for temporal variation in fecundity (the "baby boom" phenomenon) and differences between women in educational background and religious affiliation. University-educated women have 35% lower fitness than those with less than seven years education, and Roman Catholic women have about 20% higher fitness than those of other religions. Although these differences were significant, education and religion only accounted for 2% and 1% of variance in fitness, respectively. Using structural equation modeling, we reveal significant genetic influences for all three life-history traits, with heritability estimates of 0.50, 0.23, and 0.45, respectively. However, strong genetic covariation with reproductive fitness could only be demonstrated for age at first reproduction, with much weaker covariation for age at menopause and no significant covariation for age at menarche. Selection may, therefore, lead to the evolution of earlier age at first reproduction in this population. We also estimate substantial heritable variation in fitness itself, with approximately 39% of the variance attributable to additive genetic effects, the remainder consisting of unique environmental effects and small effects from education and religion. We discuss mechanisms that could be maintaining such a high heritability for fitness. Most likely is that selection is now acting on different traits from which it did in pre-industrial human populations.
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“Indeed, all the LH traits studied so far in humans show at least moderate heritability (e.g., Figueredo et al., 2004; Kirk et al., 2001; Pettay et al., 2005; Rodgers et al., 2001).”
From The Adaptive Calibration Model of stress responsivity (2011) · cites this paper as Kirk et al., 2001
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Metadata
- Authors
- Kirk, K. M., Blomberg, S. P., Duffy, D. L., Heath, A. C., Owens, I. P. F., & Martin, N. G.
- Affiliations
- QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute (AU)
- The University of Queensland (AU)
- Washington University in St. Louis (US)
- Venue
- Evolution
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2001-02
- Volume
- 55
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 423-435
- ISSN
- 0014-3820 (ISSN-L)
- 1558-5646
- OpenAlex
- W2168144246
- Cited by
- 245
- References
- 94
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 3 · 2024: 3 · 2023: 45 · 2022: 5 · 2021: 6 · 2020: 2 · 2019: 2 · 2018: 6 · 2017: 7 · 2016: 11 · 2015: 6 · 2014: 9 · 2013: 13 · 2012: 5
- FWCI
- 11.49
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Evolution (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- BioOne Complete (BioOne) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (AA11998, R01AA007535, AA-07535, AA-07728)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Experimental and Cognitive Psychology › Evolutionary Psychology and Human Behavior
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics › Animal Behavior and Reproduction
- Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Genetics › Evolution and Genetic Dynamics
- Keywords
- natural selection, human evolution, life-history traits, age at menarche, age at first reproduction, age at menopause, reproductive fitness, heritability, genetic covariance, twin studies, Western women
- MeSH terms
- Age Factors, Australia, Education, Female, Genetics, Population, Humans, Longevity, Menarche, Menopause, Middle Aged, Phenotype, Physical Fitness, Religion, Reproduction, Selection, Genetic, Twins
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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